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Ted Strickland

Betting on Who Will Win in Mid-Term Elections

Which candidates do you think will win the biggest races in the 2010 elections? Willing to put your money where your mouth is? Intrade.com provides a market exchange that lets users do just that. And the results are surprisingly accurate, historically. Much like investors put their money on companies they feel will do well in the stock market, traders on Intrade prediction markets can bet on the likelihood of certain events happening, including elections. How does it work? Well, take the current midterm elections as an example. Back in 2009, you could spend 20 cents to win a dollar betting the Republican Party would take control of the House of Representatives. As of Tuesday afternoon, that bet is now 96 cents. Makes sense from a financial perspective, but how does that equate to actually predicting a political outcome? Intrade explains, "Since our contracts trade between 0 and 100, you can think of the price at any time to be the percentage probability of that event occurring." So, fo...

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