At what point do you break down and admit your macro thesis was wrong? This is the question a lot of hedge fund managers are having to ask themselves given gold's performance over the past seven months.On the surface, gold made so much sense. With every major central bank in the world engaging in some sort of quantitative easing program, with the Eurozone still threatening to descend into crisis again, and with the U.S. government partially shut down due to political infighting, gold had to go up, right?Wrong.GLD data by YChartsI think the gold bulls based their outsized gold bets on some pretty flimsy thinking and they committed the cardinal investing sin of omission: they failed to use second-order thinking. I also think they also used the wrong historical examples as analogies to today - and drew the wrong conclusions.What am I talking about? I don't believe a macro trade is ever as simple as "if [condition A] is met, then [asset B] will rise/fall in value." Filling in the blanks h...
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