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At what point do you break down and admit your macro thesis was wrong? This is the question a lot of hedge fund managers are having to ask themselves given gold's performance over the past seven months.On the surface, gold made so much sense. With every major central bank in the world engaging in some sort of quantitative easing program, with the Eurozone still threatening to descend into crisis again, and with the U.S. government partially shut down due to political infighting, gold had to go up, right?Wrong.GLD data by YChartsI think the gold bulls based their outsized gold bets on some pretty flimsy thinking and they committed the cardinal investing sin of omission: they failed to use second-order thinking. I also think they also used the wrong historical examples as analogies to today - and drew the wrong conclusions.What am I talking about? I don't believe a macro trade is ever as simple as "if [condition A] is met, then [asset B] will rise/fall in value." Filling in the blanks h...
Sen. Rand Paul, (R-Ky.), on the federal debt ceiling.
First Trust Advisors chief economist Brian Wesbury argues stocks are undervalued and gives his outlook for the economy.
Former Reagan Budget Director David Stockman on what needs to change about U.S. economic policies.
Former Reagan Budget Director David Stockman on the impact of government policies on the U.S. economy.
The Congressional Budget Office came out with its closely watched annual forecast of federal spending and revenues Tuesday, which underpins U.S. tax and regulatory p...
ALEC tax and fiscal policy director Jonathan Williams weighs in on tax trends.
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WSJ editorial page deputy editor Dan Henninger weighs in on the debt ceiling debate and the economy.
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Former Rep. Dick Armey, (R-Texas), on the President’s big government policies.
S&P Dow Jones Indices Managing Director David Blitzer on efforts to avoid the fiscal cliff and its potential impact on the economy.
The Federal Reserve should not "put more weight" on unemployment over price stability in its decision-making process, said James Bullard, the president of the St. Lo...
WSJ editorial page deputy editor Dan Henninger on the need for lawmakers to come up with a budget plan.
Obama falls farther behind in spending fight, shutting down the government one tour at a time and Holder backs drone strikes on U.S. soil.
CKE Restaurants CEO Andy Puzder, NextGeneration.TV Correspondent Michelle Fields and Cato Economist Dan Mitchell on the impact of the sequestration cuts.
Guggenheim Advisors Managing Director Dylan Glenn on whether there will be dramatic impacts due to sequestration and spending cuts.
WSJ Opinion Page Editor Dan Henninger on the government’s failure to approve a budget.
AEI Economist Stan Veuger and CivicForumPAC Chairman Ford O’Connell on efforts to reduce spending.
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