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Friday, October 03, 2008
More Severe Recession Now Forecast By Goldman Sachs
Rex Nutting
MarketWatch Pulse
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. recession will be "significantly deeper" than they previously thought, Goldman Sachs economists predicted Friday in a research note. The economy will probably show no growth at all between the middle of 2008 and the middle of 2009, with gross domestic product falling 2% this quarter and 1% next, they said. Two other quarters will show 0% GDP growth. The unemployment rate will likely rise to 8% by the end of next year from 6.1% currently. "We now also see at least another 100 basis points of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, aggressive measures to stabilize the money markets, and a possible further easing of fiscal policy under a new administration," wrote Jan Hatzius and his team of economists.
Copyright © 2008 MarketWatch, Inc.
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Think telemarketer. Except, it's much worse because you can't avoid this call. Instead, when you get one, it's time to pay up, because the bet you placed with borrowed money is eating itself.
Buying stocks on margin is risky because you're essentially "playing" with someone else's money. If the shares you purchased tank, your losses will likely be more than if you had bought the shares with your own cash. This is why the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq impose certain restrictions on the practice.
Initially, you¿re only allowed to borrow half of the money from your broker when buying on margin. You set up a margin account and from then on must keep a maintenance balance of at least 25% of the market value of your stocks.
If the market value of your investment falls below this minimum, you're required to make up the difference by either depositing money into your account or selling some of the stock. If your broker notifies you that you've dipped below this minimum, it's called a margin call.
If you fail to adjust your account accordingly, the broker is authorized to sell shares in your account to make up the difference. The broker can even sell other stock in your margin account to make up for the loss that selling the shares didn't cover.
As an example, say you buy $8,000 in stocks of any given company. You borrow the maximum $4,000 from your broker and pay the rest yourself. Now, if and when the total value of these shares changes, you must make sure you maintain at least $2,000 (25%) in equity. In other words, if the total value were to drop below $6,000, you¿d be in trouble since you only put in $4,000 of your own money to begin with.






