The fate of higher-education stocks over the next few months is tied directly to two forces currently dominating the economy: the credit crunch and a lack of job growth.

The credit crunch poses a problem because “this is a business where customers borrow to buy, and for those that rely on private loans there’s less availability than there was a year or two ago,” said Jerry Herman, an education analyst at Stifel Nicolaus.

Meanwhile, the post-secondary, or college/university, sector stands to benefit if the economy continues to soften and jobs get scarcer. As people struggle to find employment and salaries stagnate, some workers will return to the classroom to beef up their resumes.

In fact, during the recent economic downturn higher education stocks have actually outperformed the market.

That differs from K-12 education companies, which tend to rise and fall with the economy because their fates depend to a large extent on the robustness of state and local government budgets.

The college and university arena is, of course, mostly private. Institutions such as Cornell University and The College of New Jersey aren’t publicly traded – but a small collection of companies in the sector are public.

With more economic pain likely ahead, the higher-education sector could present some strong opportunities for market outperformance.

Herman said he likes Career Education (CECO), American Public Education (APEI), Apollo Group (APOL) and DeVry (DV) because while they’re benefiting from increased numbers of students, they don’t seem to face as much risk from student-loan woes.

Loan concerns for publicly traded education-related companies usually involve factors such as tuition costs, the wealth and age of its students, and what types of degrees or certificates are offered.

R.W. Baird education analyst Amy Junker pointed out in a recent research note that DeVry, for instance, is making significant investments across its business segments, adding new online programs and opening new campuses. Unfortunately, that led to an increase in short interest (or bets that the company’s shares will fall) and a worse-than-expected earnings report in the last quarter.

Herman said he also likes ITT Educational Services (ESI), which has some exposure to private loans, but he feels the company’s stock price is adequately discounted to account for that.

But Herman said companies such as Universal Technical Institute (UTI), Corinthian Colleges (COCO) and Lincoln Educational Services (LINC) could fall prey to loan problems which might eventually be reflected in their stock prices, because those companies “have a larger part of their loans coming from private sources,” he said.

Junker’s research note expressed concern about Corinthian, as well: “The financial impact from the current lending environment remains a primary risk to the company,” she wrote.

Amy Sunderland, an education analyst at Wasatch Advisors, said she likes companies that “do adult education, helping people get degrees.”

She pointed to Strayer Education (STRA) and Capella Education (CPLA) as two that have “high-quality students, as well as well-run companies.”

Notably, both of those firms have a heavy presence on the Web, and are poised for growth not just from the expansion of the Internet in general, but also from the increasing acceptance of online degrees.

“Higher education is a growth industry,” Sunderland said, and companies will rise or fall based on their “ability to double or triple their business over the next five to 10 years. When dealing with outsourcing and global competition, it’s important to have the training” these institutions provide.

Herman sounded a note of caution, however, particularly if the economy starts to turn around.

“If indeed these (higher education) stocks are countercyclical, maybe they will underperform, as they did in the later stages of the last economic recovery – in 2004, ’05 and ’06,” he said, suggesting that when the economy is on an upswing, the K-12 sector might be a better pick.

Still, Herman’s bet isn’t going that way yet. His firm is currently tilting toward the higher-education sector, and less attached to K-12.