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Monday, August 25, 2008
FOX Business Network Shopping Cart Soared 1.8% in July
By Mark Lieberman, Senior Economist
FOXBusiness
Driven by higher prices for dairy products, the price for the FOX Business Network Shopping Cart soared 1.8% in July – the steepest monthly increase in more than four years -- to $76.68, an increase of $5.58, almost 8% in the past year.
Price increases for American cheese, milk and ice cream led the surge. Trying to console yourself with chocolate chip cookies and potato chips wouldn’t help: prices for those “fun” foods jumped as well.
And, because earnings barely budged in July, it took the average worker almost four minutes longer to earn the cost of the 31-item cart in July than in June, the largest increase in 18 months. Over the past year, the time to earn the cost of the Fox shopping cart is up more than 10 minutes, the largest year-year increase in more than four years. In total, with average hourly earnings at $18.06 in July, it would take four hours and 14 minutes – more than half of a working day – to earn enough (pre-tax) to purchase all the items in the basket.
While dairy products pushed up the grocery bill from June to July, grain prices drove prices higher in the last year with the cost of a pound of flour leaping 54% from July 2007 to July 2008. At the same time, still-high prices of gasoline increased the cost of bringing the goods to market, adding to the final tab.
There may be some relief in sight however: the Department of Agriculture reported August 22 the price of cheese fell 3.4% -- about 10 cents per pound -- in the first two weeks in August – but the price of butter rose 5.1% -- about 8¢ per pound -- in the same period.
The price story in July though was on the farm: according to the Department of Agriculture, the “all farm products index” was up 16% from July 2007, led by food grains which jumped 42% in a year. While the July “all wheat” price, at $7.29 per bushel, was down 33 cents from June it was up $2.12 from July 2007.
The agriculture report corroborated findings in the Shopping Cart with price declines for tomatoes, cucumbers, lettuce, and cauliflower. Indeed, the per-pound price of tomatoes in the shopping cart dropped 10 cents, 5.6%, the steepest month-month drop of any of the items in the shopping cart.
That the price of potato chips increased followed an increase in the price of potatoes, up 7.1% -- 64 cents per pound -- from last month and 35% -- $2.94 -- above July 2007. And, the cost of potatoes themselves rose 12.4% in July, the fastest increase of any item on our shopping list.
The July beef cattle price, according to the Department of Agriculture, is up 4.2% from last month and is 7.5% higher than July 2007. Sure enough, the price increase for round roast was one of the top five increases in the last month measured either in dollars or percentage and sirloin steak, though up only slightly in the month was the most expensive item in the shopping cart: $5.95 per pound.
The price of a gallon of whole milk rose 19 cents in July to $3.96 – the same price as a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline at the end of the month.
In July, average hourly earnings rose 0.28% -- the second weakest monthly gain since January. Average hourly earnings are up 3.38% since July 2007, the smallest year-year percentage increase since January 2006.
The FBN Shopping Cart includes basic food items -- milk, butter, eggs, bread, meat, fruit and vegetables -- as well as fun foods such as potato chips, chocolate chip cookies, soda, beer and ice cream. All the items are tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the monthly consumer price index report.
Prices went up in July for 21 of the items in the basket compared with increases for 17 in June. In the past year, prices rose for 28 of the items in the cart, equaling June.
The only three items for which prices dropped in the last year were a pound of bacon, a pound of ham and frozen orange juice.
[Fox Business intern Adam Samson contributed to this report.]
Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the New York Association for Business Economics. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.






