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Tuesday, May 26, 2009
In English, Please
Seeing the Forest Through the Green Shoots
By Mark Lieberman, Senior Economist
FOXBusiness
Sometimes we get so close to something we can’t see it. That could be said easily of a painting by Manet or Monet, but
it could apply as well to the U.S. economy which, has been shrouded by green shoots.
It might be useful to step back, far back, to get a better look.
Someone else has -- analysts at Alliance Trust, a bank based in Dundee, Scotland. From the vantage point of 3,000 miles away,
the analysts don’t particularly like what they see.
Alliance recently released some new research which focuses on the U.S. using a “Financial Reality Index” to gauge the financial
well-being of the U.S. consumer. According to Alliance analysts, the “index has a good relationship with personal consumption
growth.”
The index is an outgrowth of similar research Alliance does on the United Kingdom
As applied to the U.S., though, the analysts -- unencumbered by political relationships -- don’t think much of the much-touted
green shoots.
“The overall financial situation facing U.S. households during Q1 recorded a second slight improvement, but remains generally
weak,” Alliance said in its report. “Economic activity has weakened further, unemployment has increased sharply, and delinquencies
on consumer loans have continued to rise, all adding to the pressure facing households who are trying to navigate their way
through this recession.”
The Alliance index rolls together an assessment of the economic background, household budgets and net wealth -- the last being
the weakest of the three sub-indexes. By incorporating wealth into its “reality index,” Alliance acknowledges the wealth effect
which relates spending not to income, but to household net worth: the value of assets less what the household owes.
“The net wealth index improved only slightly during Q1, rising from a record low of 0.0 to just 3.7,” Alliance said. “Although
there has been some improvement in the stock market in recent weeks, at the end of Q1 equity prices were still almost 40%
lower than at the same time last year.”
The improvement in the wealth index, Alliance noted, “was due to house prices which remain generally weak but which are beginning
to show some signs of falling at a slower pace.”
Debt levels, the bank said, “are a major burden on net wealth.”
To be sure, Alliance is not the only doubter suggesting the recent spate of data is really less negative and not positive.
The decline in payrolls reported for April, for example, was less than March and less than expected, but the 539,000 jobs
lost in April still represented the eighth weakest job month since 1950.
A New York research firm, WANTED Technologies which collects data from online job boards to track employment levels, forecast
the employment report to be issued June 5 will show the economy shed 565,000 jobs in May.
WANTED said its forecast of job losses is less severe than the previous month when it overshot the payroll decline and thus
“a sign that the job market -- if not improving -- at least is not deteriorating further.”
That’s a green shoot not found in the Alliance report.
Most critical is the Alliance outlook for consumer spending, which is 70% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product.
Alliance said its overall Financial Reality Index for the first quarter was 71.1, up a scant 1.2 from the fourth quarter.
“The financial conditions facing households are less negative, but remain below the critical, long run average level of 100,”
Alliance said. “The economic background continues to deteriorate.”
Noting the close relationship between its Index and actual consumer spending, Alliance said “the latest reading for consumer
spending suggests a very small improvement during Q1.” GDP fell by 6.1% compared with a 6.3% drop in the fourth quarter.
However, according to Alliance, “our index remains in negative territory and we therefore expect consumer spending to remain
relatively muted over the rest of this year.
Sometimes, you have to step back to get a close look.
Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the New York Association for Business Economics. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
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