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Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Rethinking 'Safe' Stocks
By Matt Egan
FOXBusiness
The market meltdown has forced investors to rethink the characteristics of a "stable company" as Wall Street flees banking stocks in favor of consumer staples, health care and even technology.
The fallout has proven that even blue-chip companies can succumb to the weak economy, casting doubt on the conventional thinking that components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average can withstand the recession. In recent days, blue-chip companies like like Citigroup (C) and General Motors (GM) have neared penny-stock territory due at least in part to their exposure to the battered financial markets.
"I think it’s true we are going through a major transition," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.
While the penny-stock phenomenon has forced investors to rethink the buy-and-hold strategy, it has also put greater emphasis on companies that can be relied on to offer stable growth in a more transparent manner than banks.
“I think you have to understand the business they are in and how they generate revenue,” said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates.
While that statement may seem somewhat obvious, it wasn’t the case for much of the last decade as shares of financial companies like Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns surged, even though investors understood little about how they generated growth.
Much like the aftermath of previous meltdowns, the painful fallout bank shareholders are now experiencing could lead investors to avoid financials altogether.
“I don’t think you are going to get a lot of trust in that sector for a while,” said Pado. “People still feel the sting of what happened to them in the tech bubble bursting. I think we’re going to start to transition out of that now that we have a new bad guy in town.”
Now, investors are looking toward typically defensive plays like health-care companies Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Abbott Labs (ABT) for stability, even in good economic times.
“You might see health care be more than just a defensive [sector], but one that is actually a measure of how our economy is doing,” said Pado, citing the transition of Baby Boomers into senior citizens. “The economy is going to rely heavily on that bubble of our population.”
Due to the lack of stability from financials like Bank of America (BAC) and manufacturing companies such as GM, health-care and consumer-staples companies are poised to “move up in the ranks in what people will look at as being the blue chips,” said Pado.
Nolte echoed that sentiment, saying he is concentrating on companies that produce goods that “people have to buy no matter what,” citing Coca-Cola (KO), General Mills (GIS) and Heinz (HNZ).
While investors were understandably spooked by the bursting of the tech bubble, that sector could be well on its way to making a comeback.
“Technology should be the main sector that will lead the market,” said Pado, pointing to the sector’s lack of exposure to the housing market and the tendency of those companies to have strong capital positions.
While there hasn’t been much shelter from the selling that has slammed stocks in 2009, the Nasdaq Composite, which has a higher concentration of tech stocks, has held up better than its peers. The Nasdaq is off by 19.5% year-to-date, compared to declines of 25% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.
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