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OPEC Upgrades '10 Oil Demand Forecast,Warns On Recovery

 
By Tahani Karrar-Lewsley
Dow Jones Newswires
     

    (This item was originally published Wednesday.)

    DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones)--The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Wednesday it has raised its 2010 oil demand forecast despite economies contracting in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, with demand being driven by China and the Middle East.

    "World oil demand is expected to grow by 0.9 million barrels a day in 2010 following a contraction of 1.4 million barrels a day in the previous year," OPEC said in its latest monthly report.

    This represents an upward revision of 0.1 million barrels a day from OPEC's previous assessment, and means OPEC forecasts 2010 demand at an average 85.2 million barrels a day.

    OPEC said concerns remain regarding the level of public debt in almost all OECD regions, record-high unemployment levels across the globe and the ability of China to avoid an overheating.

    OECD demand is still expected to shrink around 0.15 million barrels a day, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by 1.0 million barrels a day, driven by China and the Middle East.

    The group revised up its previous demand forecast for 2009 OPEC crude at an estimated 29.0 million barrels a day. While this is around 0.2 million barrels a day higher than February's report, it still represents a decline of around 2.2 million barrels a day from the previous year.

    "In 2010, the demand from OPEC crude is expected to average 28.9 million barrels a day around 0.2 million barrels a day higher than the previous assessment and a decline of 40,000 barrels a day from a year earlier," the group said.

    OPEC's forecast for 2010 world economic growth remains unchanged at 3.4% following a contraction of 0.9% in 2009. Minor revisions were carried out for some economies.

    "In the OECD, the U.S. has been revised down slightly to 2.4% and Japan adjusted higher to 1.3%," OPEC said, talking about economic growth. In the developing countries, Chinese growth was revised up to 9.3%.

    Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase 0.4 million barrels a day in 2010, following growth of 0.6 million barrels a day in the previous year. This represents an upward adjustment of 0.1 million barrels a day from OPEC's previous assessment, mainly due to estimates for processing gains as well as various historical data updates.

    OPEC production in February rose 190,000 barrels a day, according to secondary sources, to total 29.4 million barrels a day from January's 29.2 million barrels a day.

    The statistics show compliance by the 11 quota-bound members with production cuts agreed in 2008 has now fallen to 53.2% from 55.9% in January and 80% in March last year.

    Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

    Copyright © 2009 Dow Jones Newswires

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