The number that might be most watched this week is the estimate of Black Friday spending.

If consumer spending was strong on the day after Thanksgiving, widely regarded as the biggest shopping day of the year, investors could take it as a sign that the likely recession may not be as bad as some economists have forecasted.

If the opposite proves true and consumers stayed home or scaled back spending, investors may reverse course on the buying that drove markets higher last week.

Other events worth noting include Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s scheduled speech on Monday in Austin, Texas, to discuss Fed policy related to the financial crises.

Then on Friday a job report is expected to show U.S. payrolls declined by as much as 300,000 jobs, which could push the unemployment rate to 6.7% from 6.5%.

Meanwhile, earnings from retailers and builders -- including Sears (SHLD), Aeropostle (ARO), Guess? (GES), Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN), and Beazer Homes USA (BZH) -- as well as a handful of economic reports on manufacturing and employment, will set the course for this week’s direction.

MONDAY: Report on construction spending in October, also the ISM Manufacturing Index, considered the best gauge of the health of America’s factories. 

TUESDAY: Earnings from Beacon Roofing Supply, Beazer Homes USA and Sears, plus sales of light vehicles.

WEDNESDAY: Earnings from Aeropostle, Del Monte Foods (DLM) and Diamond Foods (DMND), as well as reports on mortgage applications, October layoffs, the ADP Employment Report and the Fed’s Beige Book.

THURSDAY: Earnings from Guess? and gun maker Smith & Wesson (SWHC), and economic reports including unemployment insurance claims, the Mortgage Banker Association’s third quarter mortgage delinquency survey, and a report on October factory orders.

FRIDAY: Important economic news on payroll employment, which is expected to fall dramatically, and the unemployment rate, which could rise to 6.7%.