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Tuesday, September 16, 2008
What Could Replace AIG in the Dow
By Joanna Ossinger
FOXBusiness

The Dow Jones Industrial Average may need a new component very soon, if the speculation of a possible bankruptcy at American International Group (AIG) is any indication.
The DJIA, that lovely group of 30 stocks picked as good representatives of the U.S. economy, comes in for criticism a lot as being too narrow to really represent the market well, and because it calculates changes based on price moves not weighted by market capitalization. But it’s still what lots of ordinary Americans think about when they think of the stock market, and can hardly be ignored.
The Dow Jones Indexes Web site says “a stock is typically added only if it has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth, is of interest to a large number of investors and accurately represents the sector(s) covered by the average.”
It also mentions that when any new component needs to be picked, the entire index is thrown open for discussion. Just in case that happens, here are some recommendations:
Financial Sector
Since AIG is a contender to be exiting, it might make sense to be looking at insurers or other financial-sector candidates. The way this market has been going, we don’t know which ones will last into next week, anyway.
“We’d have to get another insurance company,” says Neil Hennessy, president and portfolio manager of Hennessy Funds. “Maybe MetLife (MET).” UnitedHealth Group (UNH) or Travelers Cos. (TRV) might not be bad bets, either.
Or, how about adding Goldman Sachs (GS) at last? Goldman pretty much controls the universe at this point, or so it seems sometimes--so if you’re hoping to represent the U.S. economy, you could do worse.
More Technology
“The two obvious choices to replace AIG: Google (GOOG) and Cisco (CSCO),” said Dan Seiver, professor at San Diego State University. He notes that their market capitalizations are higher than a lot of Dow components, and they’re “well-known household names with global reach in growing parts of the economy.”
Richard Sparks, senior equity strategist with Schaeffer’s Investment Research, agrees that tech would be the first place to look for new additions to the index.
They’ve got a point. Google and Cisco, along with Apple (AAPL), have some of the biggest market caps in the country. But they’re not in the Dow--what gives?
It’s tough, given that we’ve got Intel (INTC), International Business Machines (IBM), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Microsoft (MSFT) already in there, but maybe th good folks at Dow Jones could squeeze in one more for good measure. After all, we Americans spend about half our lives Googling stuff.
Transportation
What’s good for General Motors (GM) was once good for the country, but the company has tanked so much that it’s hovering around a $6 billion market cap. Can’t we just pretend Toyota (TM) is a U.S. stock?
“A railroad company might be good to consider,” suggests Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer at Oaktree Asset Management. Union Pacific (UNP) and Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) have market caps of about $35 billion each these days, so they might not be bad ideas. That’s especially true when you consider that no airline is really big enough to be a good candidate.
Shipping Company
As a variant on that, perhaps you could try a company like FedEx (FDX) or UPS (UPS). UPS has a market cap of $70 billion--not bad. Besides, every time either of these companies report earnings, people keep saying they’re “good indicators of the overall economy” because they reflect whether people and businesses are shipping stuff. What better company to throw into the DJIA?
Materials
Why not take a look at a mining company such as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX)? The options in mining are limited, for one thing, and even though they’re down from the highs, commodities are proving to be a big story. Or try Monsanto (MON), which would rope in a bit more agriculture.
Here’s a candidate for removal: Alcoa (AA). Simon Constable, a commodities columnist at Dow Jones Newswires, has in the past advocated that Alcoa be taken out of the Dow. He argues that Alcoa has underperformed relative to its industry group, even during the bull market, and made bad management decisions that make it tough to argue the company is representative of the metals space.
Simplify
If all else fails, they should just throw Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) into the index. Since changes in the Dow are calculated using price moves, and Berkshire’s stock is well over $100,000 a share, it would dominate the index. It would make things a lot less complicated, at any rate.
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