Did Ford Motor Co. (F), maker of the iconic Ford Explorer sport utility vehicle, just say the SUV is dead?

Not exactly.

But Ford’s lead sales analyst George Pipas did say that the SUV may soon become a niche product at best.

“Our view is that gas prices aren’t likely to go down and, more importantly, consumers have moved on. We believe that the [SUV] segment has merit for certain consumers, but is not likely to rebound at any point,” he said during the company’s June sales announcement.

At any point. 

Apparently that’s Ford-speak for “the SUV is dead,” said Charlie Vogelheim, chief auto industry analyst with J.D. Power and Associates.

“The popularity of the SUV is done,” Vogelheim said. “The SUV is more of a four-letter word than the station wagon.”

Prompted by $4 a gallon gasoline, consumers have shunned the SUVs in 2008 in the same way they snubbed New Coke in the 1980s and the Ford Edsel in the 1950s.

Ford said that its pickup and sport utility vehicle division experienced a 41% decline in sales in June compared to a year ago. Meanwhile General Motors (GM), who successfully armed U.S. soccer moms with the 18-foot long, 10,000-pound Suburban throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, said its truck sales were down nearly 20% from a year ago as well.

The notion that the SUV is dead is a difficult pill to swallow for companies like Ford or GM. Both sold numerous models of SUVs through the 1990s and 2000s. At one point, GM’s Chevrolet brand sold four different SUVs, while Ford sold five.

“Ford saying the ‘SUV is dead’ is maybe a realization that American automakers get it,” said Aaron Bragman, research analyst with Global Insight in Detroit. “They get the idea that there’s a permanent change in consumer sentiment.”

The future of the SUV might be dark, but what the SUV stood for isn’t – that’s a mix of power, space, comfort and convenience. Americans will still need to transport their 2.5 kids and all their stuff to and from events. What would most likely replace the SUV will be what’s now known as a crossover, experts said.

“Americans still like big vehicles,” Bragman said. “But they simply cannot afford rugged vehicles and, honestly, consumers never needed a rugged vehicle.”

Crossovers such as the Dodge Journey the GMC Arcadia are basically an SUV on a diet. They have that similar SUV shape with the higher up “command seating” that many U.S.-based drivers are looking for, but they are built on a car-like chassis.

While the Chevy Suburban comes in at around 18 feet, a crossover like the Ford Taurus X is 16 feet in length.

“The crossover falls somewhere between a van, an SUV and a station wagon,” Vogelheim said. “People are now going to be looking for space-effective vehicles. You still need to move the kids, but you’ll be doing it more efficiently.”

Like the hatchback and station wagon before it, the SUV will continue to exist in one form or another, at least for the near future, industry analysts said. But its role will be much more limited.

Some people will still need to tow a boat or a motorcycle occasionally, experts said, but that number is quickly decreasing.

“There are a lot of people who utilized gasoline for recreation – to take a motorcycle to an event or go boating – but even those people are now cutting back,” Vogelheim said.

Bragman said he sees the SUV going back to its original purpose – a rough riding, heavy-duty vehicle that seated more than a truck.

“It’s going to become a specialized vehicle again like the Suburban or the Jeep was in the 1970s,” he said. “But that type of vehicle isn’t going to sell a million units.”