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Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Is Zucker the Right Man to Lead NBCU Venture?
By Matt Egan
FOXBusiness

The proposed NBC Universal joint venture between General Electric (GE) and Comcast (CMCSA) represents a high-stakes gamble that would marry the nation’s largest cable provider with one of its most formidable entertainment businesses, and could be used as a model for future deals.
Like many complicated deals, this one is likely to hinge on execution, which is why some eyebrows were raised amid reports that longtime NBCU CEO Jeff Zucker will likely be tapped for the top job. After all, Zucker has presided over fourth-place NBC and was behind the much-criticized decision to move Jay Leno to primetime.
Despite the troubles at NBC, analysts say Zucker is a good choice to lead this business because of his success in turning around NBCU’s cable operations, the competent crew of execs behind him and the respect he garners in the industry.
“Jeff has transformed NBC from a company that was consistently behind the eight-ball to one that is well-positioned for a merger or acquisition,” Jack Myers, a media economist and investment advisor at M.E.D.I.A Advisory Group, wrote in a recent report. “Concern about NBC-TV network still being in fourth place is a 20th-century issue, is irrelevant today and will be even more irrelevant in the future.”
Still, the latest ratings declines for NBC come as NBC Universal's revenue slumped 20% to $4.1 billion during the third quarter, exceeded only by the 30% dive at GE Capital, its financial arm that sent GE’s stock into a freefall during the financial crisis.
Zucker’s decision to relocate Leno to 10 p.m. instead of paying to develop a costly series has been criticized by many, though it’s still too early to tell how it will play out. The move was dealt a blow by a recent Advertising Age report that showed advertisers have only been willing to pay $57,486 for a 30-second spot during Leno, compared to $127,000 for CBS’s (CBS) The Good Wife and $240,000 for ABC’s Grey’s Anatomy.
Those figures, and Zucker’s apparent surrender in the ratings game underscore the fall from grace for NBC, a network that not long ago was the home to ER, Seinfeld and Friends.
“There were relatively low expectations going in. It was a cost play. He succeeded in lowering the costs for primetime,” said Greg Kahn, senior vice president of strategic insights at media agency OptiMedia.
NBC’s ratings performance “calls into question whether or not Zucker really understands what viewers or content consumers want,” said Mike Jude, program manager at Frost & Sullivan’s Stratecast, who added that he was a little “perplexed” when he heard Zucker is likely to lead NBCU. “Is his judgment good enough to package all of this in a way that actually achieves a revenue gain?”
Should Comcast decide Zucker's judgment is not good enough, it won’t have to look far for a potential replacement. Peter Chernin, former president of media giant News Corp. (NWSA), which is the parent of FOX Business, is advising Comcast as a paid consultant in the NBCU talks, The New York Times reported last month.
Comcast did not respond to a request for comment.
His time running News Corp. would seemingly make Chernin a perfect match as Rupert Murdoch’s company is “probably the best model for what I think ultimately Comcast would like to achieve,” said Jude.
Still, it’s not clear Chernin would even be interested, and if Comcast replaced Zucker it would risk upsetting NBCU’s cast of widely-respected executives, including Jeff Gaspin, chairman of its television entertainment unit. While Chernin would be a “fine person” to lead NBCU, Comcast does not want to “go upset a very solid and stable management structure,” said Kahn.
Besides, Comcast is likely willing to overlook NBC’s decline as it’s much more interested in the unit’s cable operations, which include top-rated USA Network, Bravo, CNBC and Syfy, which posted a 30% jump in ratings last quarter. These networks would bolster Comcast’s more modest cable presence, which includes E!, the Golf Channel and Versus.
“You have to admire what he’s (Zucker) been able to do with NBCU cable properties,” said Kahn.
What's more, Zucker deserves credit for NBCU’s early foray into digital platforms like Hulu, the joint venture with News Corp. and Disney (DIS) that has seen success.
“From a digital perspective, he has been somewhat of a visionary,” said Kahn.
Whether it’s Zucker, Chernin or another media exec running NBCU, it’s clear the entire media industry is watching to see if Comcast is successful in combining content with distribution.
“It’s been this gravestone that everybody wants to avoid. Everyone is watching Comcast. They are wondering if Comcast can make this work because if they can, it’s a model that’s likely to be followed by other operators,” said Jude.
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