If you throw all the products we buy and the services we use in one basket, then add up the price tag, that's the Gross Domestic Product, which is the primary metric economists use to assess the economic health of a country or region.

The easy part of calculating GDP is the calculation itself: C+I+G+(X-M)=GDP. Got it? No? Well, add Consumption, Investment by companies, Government purchases, and then take the product of eXports (calling it 'E' would lack sexiness) minus iMports ('I' was taken). Viola! GDP.

Still don't get it? Well, knowing the components helps. Consumption is the biggest component, and it's a tally of the cost of all the goods and services we buy. Investment is what companies spend on the real assets they own, plus the value of the inventory that we haven't gobbled up through consumption. Government purchases are what the Feds pay money for (whether it be highways or fighter jets, though big social programs, like welfare, aren't counted). And then we calculate the difference between the goods and services we¿re sending to other countries and the stuff we're bringing in.

Good. That explains it, except there's a catch. Inflation has a habit of distorting the numbers, so economists talk about either Nominal GDP or Real GDP. In fact, Real GDP isn't necessarily "real" for most folks, since it takes any inflation out. Nominal GDP includes the effects of inflation. (There's something called the implicit price deflator which is a calculation using the two, but we'll spare you the details.)

So, now that we know GDP, why do we want to? Well, it's good to compare different markets. And watching the trend shows whether a given economy is growing (good), stagnating (not so good), or shrinking (very not so good). When GDP goes down two quarters in a row, we're officially in a recession.

For the record, GDP is released at the end of each month, with most reporting ¿preliminary¿ data for the previous month. But you won't get final GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of a year until the very end of the first quarter of the next year. After all, it's not an easy number to calculate.

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Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Fitch Publishes Reports on Time Warner Inc. & The Walt Disney Company

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Comtex

CHICAGO & NEW YORK, Jul 23, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) ----This week, Fitch published reports on two of the largest issuers of debt in the Media and Entertainment sector: Time Warner Inc. and The Walt Disney Company.

In the case of Time Warner, Fitch analyzed post-TWC transaction business risk and credit considerations within the company's indentures and organizational debt structure. Fitch believes that while there may be further corporate actions contemplated by management, the company has the flexibility and commitment to maintain mid 'BBB' ratings.

In Disney's case, Fitch addressed market concerns regarding the cyclicality of the business and highlighted several other factors that differentiate Disney's credit profile from that of its peers. Fitch believes Disney can comfortably withstand both a cyclical downturn and secular shifts taking place in the broader media space.

Each report includes a discussion of the key credit risks and opportunities for the companies going forward. The reports also include a capital structure diagram, a portfolio summary, and a summary of key credit facility and indenture provisions.

The reports, 'Time Warner, Inc. - Smaller But Stable; A Look at Post Transaction TWX' and 'The Walt Disney Company - Credit Stability Amid a Weakening Economy' are available on the Fitch Ratings web site www.fitchratings.com.

Fitch's rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on the agency's public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch's code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the 'Code of Conduct' section of this site.

SOURCE: Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings Mike Simonton, CFA, 312-368-3138, Chicago Jamie Rizzo, CFA,
   212-908-0548, New York or Media Relations: Brian Bertsch, 212-908-0549, New York

Copyright Business Wire 2008 **********************************************************************
   As of Saturday, 07-19-2008 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend� Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated a
   DOWNTREND on 06-19-2008 for DIS @ $32.85. As of Saturday, 07-19-2008 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend Alert, an automated
   pattern recognition system, indicated a DOWNTREND on 06-09-2008 for TWX @ $15.21. For more information on SmarTrend, contact
   your market data provider or go to www.mysmartrend.com SmarTrend is a registered trademark of Comtex News Network, Inc. Copyright
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