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Gross Domestic Product

If you throw all the products we buy and the services we use in one basket, then add up the price tag, that's the Gross Domestic Product, which is the primary metric economists use to assess the economic health of a country or region.

The easy part of calculating GDP is the calculation itself: C+I+G+(X-M)=GDP. Got it? No? Well, add Consumption, Investment by companies, Government purchases, and then take the product of eXports (calling it 'E' would lack sexiness) minus iMports ('I' was taken). Viola! GDP.

Still don't get it? Well, knowing the components helps. Consumption is the biggest component, and it's a tally of the cost of all the goods and services we buy. Investment is what companies spend on the real assets they own, plus the value of the inventory that we haven't gobbled up through consumption. Government purchases are what the Feds pay money for (whether it be highways or fighter jets, though big social programs, like welfare, aren't counted). And then we calculate the difference between the goods and services we¿re sending to other countries and the stuff we're bringing in.

Good. That explains it, except there's a catch. Inflation has a habit of distorting the numbers, so economists talk about either Nominal GDP or Real GDP. In fact, Real GDP isn't necessarily "real" for most folks, since it takes any inflation out. Nominal GDP includes the effects of inflation. (There's something called the implicit price deflator which is a calculation using the two, but we'll spare you the details.)

So, now that we know GDP, why do we want to? Well, it's good to compare different markets. And watching the trend shows whether a given economy is growing (good), stagnating (not so good), or shrinking (very not so good). When GDP goes down two quarters in a row, we're officially in a recession.

For the record, GDP is released at the end of each month, with most reporting ¿preliminary¿ data for the previous month. But you won't get final GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of a year until the very end of the first quarter of the next year. After all, it's not an easy number to calculate.

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Zenith Announces Second Quarter Results

 
Comtex
 

WOODLAND HILLS, Calif., Jul 22, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) ----Zenith National Insurance Corp. (NYSE: ZNT) reported net income for the second quarter 2008 of $28.4 million, or $0.76 per share, compared to net income for the second quarter 2007 of $65.3 million, or $1.75 per share. Net income for the six months ended June 30, 2008 was $70.3 million, or $1.88 per share, compared to net income for the six months ended June 30, 2007 of $129.8 million, or $3.48 per share.

Net income in the three months ended June 30, 2008 includes net realized losses on investments after tax of $1.5 million, or $0.04 per share, compared to net realized gains on investments after tax of $3.4 million, or $0.09 per share, in the corresponding period of 2007. Net income in the six months ended June 30, 2008 includes net realized gains on investments after tax of $1.4 million, or $0.04 per share, compared to $7.3 million, or $0.19 per share, in the corresponding period of 2007.

Underwriting income before tax from the workers' compensation segment was $26.5 million and $66.5 million in the three and six months ended June 30, 2008, respectively, compared to $71.5 million and $132.8 million in the corresponding periods of 2007.

Workers' compensation calendar year combined ratios, along with a reconciliation to the accident year combined ratios, were as follows:

 Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, June 30, ------------------
   ---------------- 2008 2007 2008 2007 ------------------ ---------------- Calendar Year Combined Ratio (1) 82.8% 61.7% 78.7%
   65.1% Prior Accident Year Items: Favorable loss reserve development 9.7 23.6 12.2 20.6 Increase in policyholders' dividends
   (1.6) (1.6) ------------------ ---------------- Accident Year Combined Ratio (1) 90.9% 85.3% 89.3% 85.7% ----------------------------------------------------------------------
   (1) See Supplemental Financial Information for a description of "Combined Ratio." 

For 2008, pre-tax favorable workers' compensation loss reserve development on prior accident years was $15.0 million in the second quarter compared to $23.2 million in the first quarter. For 2007, pre-tax favorable workers' compensation loss reserve development on prior accident years was $34.2 million, $44.0 million, $24.9 million and $10.3 million in the first, second, third and fourth quarters, respectively.

Total workers' compensation net premiums earned decreased 17.8% in the six months ended June 30, 2008 compared to the corresponding period of 2007, with California workers' compensation net premiums earned decreasing 20.4% for the comparable period. These decreases reflect both the reduction in premium rates due to favorable loss cost trends from the California and Florida legislative reforms, as well as the impact of competition. Insured payroll, our best indicator of exposure, decreased 3.0% for California as of June 30, 2008 compared to December 31, 2007 and decreased 2.1% outside California. For the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, insured payroll decreased 14.5% in California and increased 1.1% outside California.

Consolidated stockholders' equity per share was $29.22, $29.58 and $28.93 at June 30, 2008, March 31, 2008 and December 31, 2007, respectively. Return on average equity in the six months ended June 30, 2008 was 13.4% compared to 25.9% in the corresponding period of 2007 and 22.9% in the year ended December 31, 2007.

Commenting on the results, Stanley R. Zax, Chairman and President, said: "Our underwriting income for the second quarter declined compared to the second quarter last year due to lower premiums and lower favorable loss reserve development as the loss trends for prior accident years continue to be stable. The combined ratio of 78.7% for the six months is higher by 13.6 percentage points from the comparable period of 2007, but is at excellent levels in historical context. New benefit schedules in California, which are expected to be effective for injuries occurring after January 1, 2009, will most likely require rate increases of about 5%."

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements if accompanied by meaningful cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. Forward-looking statements include those related to the plans and objectives of management for future operations, future economic performance, or projections of revenues, income, earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure, or other financial items. Statements containing words such as expect, anticipate, believe, estimate, likely or similar words that are used in this release or in other written or oral information conveyed by or on behalf of Zenith are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Zenith undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking statements, which are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to the following: (1) competition; (2) payroll levels of our customers; (3) weakening economy; (4) adverse state and federal legislation and regulation; (5) changes in interest rates causing fluctuations of investment income and fair values of investments; (6) changes in the frequency and severity of claims and catastrophes; (7) adequacy of loss reserves; (8) changing environment for controlling medical, legal and rehabilitation costs, as well as fraud and abuse; (9) losses associated with any terrorist attacks that impact our workers' compensation business in excess of our reinsurance protection; (10) losses caused by nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological events whether or not there is any applicable reinsurance protection; and (11) other risks detailed herein and from time to time in Zenith's reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

 ZENITH NATIONAL INSURANCE CORP. Selected Financial Data (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Six Months Ended
   June 30, June 30, -------------------- --------------------- (In thousands, except per share data) 2008 2007 2008 2007 --------
   --------- --------- --------- TOTAL REVENUES $174,367 $ 219,097 $ 361,120 $ 454,623 SELECTED INCOME DATA: Net Investment Income
   after Tax (1) $ 15,208 $ 18,246 $ 30,840 $ 41,896 Net Realized (Losses) Gains on Investments after Tax (2) (1,494) 3,380 1,422
   7,253 -------- --------- --------- --------- Income from Investments Segment after Tax 13,714 21,626 32,262 49,149 Net Income
   $ 28,400 $ 65,300 $ 70,300 $ 129,800 NET INCOME PER COMMON SHARE (1) (2): Basic $ 0.76 $ 1.76 $ 1.89 $ 3.50 Diluted 0.76 1.75
   1.88 3.48 CASH DIVIDENDS DECLARED PER COMMON SHARE $ 0.50 $ 0.42 $ 1.00 $ 0.84 STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY (as of June 30, 2008 and
   2007): Stockholders' Equity $1,088,215 $1,024,490 Stockholders' Equity per Common Share (3) 29.22 27.65 NUMBER OF COMMON SHARES:
   Outstanding (as of June 30, 2008 and 2007) 37,239 37,056 Weighted Average for the Period - Basic 37,211 37,050 37,161 37,042
   Weighted Average for the Period - Diluted 37,397 37,278 37,369 37,260 (1) Net investment income after tax for the six months
   ended June 30, 2007 includes a $4.9 million, or $0.13 per share, cash dividend received from a common stock investment. (2)
   Net realized losses on investments after tax were $0.04 per share in the three months ended June 30, 2008 compared to net
   realized gains on investments after tax of $0.09 per share in the corresponding period of 2007. Net realized gains on investments
   after tax were $0.04 per share in the six months ended June 30, 2008 compared to $0.19 per share in the corresponding period
   of 2007. Net realized (losses) gains on investments after tax in both the three and six months ended June 30, 2008 include
   write-downs after tax of $5.6 million, or $0.15 per share, on two securities because we determined that the decline in fair
   values were other-than-temporary in the second quarter 2008 due to the amount and length of time for which the fair values
   were below cost. There were no write-downs in 2007. (3) Stockholders' equity at June 30, 2008 includes unrealized losses in
   our investment portfolio, net of deferred tax (SFAS 115), of $0.28 per share compared to unrealized gains of $0.34 per share
   and $0.33 per share at March 31, 2008 and December 31, 2007, respectively. 
 ZENITH NATIONAL INSURANCE CORP. Selected
   Financial Data (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, June 30, ------------------- ------------------- (In
   thousands) 2008 2007 2008 2007 -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL REVENUES: Net Premiums Earned $154,368 $186,345 $313,400
   $380,427 Net Investment Income (1) 22,297 27,551 45,532 63,037 Net Realized (Losses) Gains on Investments (2) (2,298) 5,201
   2,188 11,159 -------- -------- -------- -------- $174,367 $219,097 $361,120 $454,623 ======== ======== ======== ======== RESULTS
   OF OPERATIONS BY SEGMENT (3): Investments Segment: Net Investment Income (1) $ 22,297 $ 27,551 $ 45,532 $ 63,037 Net Realized
   (Losses) Gains on Investments (2) (2,298) 5,201 2,188 11,159 -------- -------- -------- -------- 19,999 32,752 47,720 74,196
   Workers' Compensation Segment (4) 26,491 71,456 66,499 132,839 Reinsurance Segment (4) (6) (210) (13) (360) Parent (5) (2,864)
   (2,586) (6,059) (5,641) -------- -------- -------- -------- Income before Tax 43,620 101,412 108,147 201,034 Income Tax Expense
   15,220 36,112 37,847 71,234 -------- -------- -------- -------- NET INCOME $ 28,400 $ 65,300 $ 70,300 $129,800 ======== ========
   ======== ======== (1) Net investment income before tax for the six months ended June 30, 2007 includes a $7.3 million cash
   dividend received from a common stock investment. (2) Net realized (losses) gains on investments in both the three and six
   months ended June 30, 2008 include write-downs of $8.5 million before tax ($5.6 million after tax, or $0.15 per share) on
   two securities because we determined that the decline in fair values were other-than-temporary in the second quarter 2008
   due to the amount and length of time for which the fair values were below cost. There were no write-downs in 2007. (3) See
   Supplemental Financial Information for a description of segment results. (4) See Property-Casualty Insurance Operations in
   the following tables. (5) Includes interest expense before tax of $1.3 million in both the three months ended June 30, 2008
   and 2007 and $2.6 million in both the six months ended June 30, 2008 and 2007. 
 ZENITH NATIONAL INSURANCE CORP.
   Selected Financial Data (Unaudited) Three Months Ended June 30, --------------------------------- (Dollars in thousands) 2008
   2007 ---------------- ---------------- PROPERTY-CASUALTY INSURANCE OPERATIONS: Gross Premiums Written (1): Workers' Compensation:
   California $ 85,137 54.1% $101,810 54.2% Outside California 71,775 45.6 85,967 45.8 -------- ------ -------- ------ Total
   Workers' Compensation 156,912 99.7 187,777 100.0 Reinsurance (2) 512 0.3 15 -------- ------ -------- ------ $157,424 100.0%
   $187,792 100.0% Net Premiums Written (1): Workers' Compensation: California $ 82,621 54.2% $ 98,779 54.2% Outside California
   69,246 45.5 83,587 45.8 -------- ------ -------- ------ Total Workers' Compensation 151,867 99.7 182,366 100.0 Reinsurance
   (2) 512 0.3 4 -------- ------ -------- ------ $152,379 100.0% $182,370 100.0% Net Premiums Earned: Workers' Compensation:
   California $ 82,784 53.6% $101,851 54.7% Outside California 71,072 46.1 84,490 45.3 -------- ------ -------- ------ Total
   Workers' Compensation 153,856 99.7 186,341 100.0 Reinsurance (2) 512 0.3 4 -------- ------ -------- ------ $154,368 100.0%
   $186,345 100.0% Underwriting Income (Loss) before Tax/Combined Ratio of (1): Workers' Compensation $ 26,491 82.8% $ 71,456
   61.7% Reinsurance (2) (6) NM (210) NM Workers' Compensation Combined Ratio (1): Underwriting and Other Operating Expenses
   (3) 40.4% 35.4% Current Accident Year Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses 52.1 49.9 Prior Accident Year Favorable Loss Reserve
   Development (9.7) (23.6) ------ ------ Combined Ratio 82.8% 61.7% (1) See Supplemental Financial Information for a description
   of segment results, "Premiums Written," "Underwriting Income (Loss)" and "Combined Ratio." (2) In September 2005, we exited
   the assumed reinsurance business and ceased writing and renewing assumed reinsurance contracts, with all contracts fully expired
   at the end of 2006. (3) Includes an increase in estimated policyholders' dividends for prior accident years of $2.5 million
   (1.6% of workers' compensation net premiums earned) for the three months ended June 30, 2008. NM = Not Meaningful 
   ZENITH NATIONAL INSURANCE CORP. Selected Financial Data (Unaudited) Six Months Ended June 30, ------------------------------------
   (Dollars in thousands) 2008 2007 ------------------ ----------------- PROPERTY-CASUALTY INSURANCE OPERATIONS: Gross Premiums
   Written (1): Workers' Compensation: California $174,239 53.7% $216,440 54.7% Outside California 149,291 46.0 178,579 45.2
   -------- -------- -------- ------- Total Workers' Compensation 323,530 99.7 395,019 99.9 Reinsurance (2) 805 0.3 326 0.1 --------
   -------- -------- ------- $324,335 100.0% $395,345 100.0% Net Premiums Written (1): Workers' Compensation: California $169,205
   53.8% $208,548 54.7% Outside California 144,637 46.0 172,554 45.2 -------- -------- -------- ------- Total Workers' Compensation
   313,842 99.8 381,102 99.9 Reinsurance (2) 807 0.2 337 0.1 -------- -------- -------- ------- $314,649 100.0% $381,439 100.0%
   Net Premiums Earned: Workers' Compensation: California $168,518 53.8% $211,816 55.7% Outside California 144,075 46.0 168,274
   44.2 -------- -------- -------- ------- Total Workers' Compensation 312,593 99.8 380,090 99.9 Reinsurance (2) 807 0.2 337
   0.1 -------- -------- -------- ------- $313,400 100.0% $380,427 100.0% Underwriting Income (Loss) before Tax/Combined Ratio
   of (1): Workers' Compensation $ 66,499 78.7% $132,839 65.1% Reinsurance (2) (13) NM (360) NM Workers' Compensation Combined
   Ratio (1): Underwriting and Other Operating Expenses (3) 40.4% 35.1% Current Accident Year Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
   50.5 50.6 Prior Accident Year Favorable Loss Reserve Development (12.2) (20.6) -------- ------- Combined Ratio 78.7% 65.1%
   (1) See Supplemental Financial Information for a description of segment results, "Premiums Written," "Underwriting Income
   (Loss)" and "Combined Ratio." (2) In September 2005, we exited the assumed reinsurance business and ceased writing and renewing
   assumed reinsurance contracts, with all contracts fully expired at the end of 2006. (3) Includes an increase in estimated
   policyholders' dividends for prior accident years of $5.0 million (1.6% of workers' compensation net premiums earned) for
   the six months ended June 30, 2008. NM = Not Meaningful 
 ZENITH NATIONAL INSURANCE CORP. Supplemental Financial
   Information (Unaudited) 

HOW WE REPORT OUR RESULTS

Our business is comprised of the following segments: investments, workers' compensation and reinsurance. In September 2005, we exited the reinsurance business. Results of the investments segment include net investment income and net realized gains (losses) on investments and we do not allocate investment income to our workers' compensation and reinsurance segments. Income (loss) before tax from the workers' compensation and reinsurance segments is determined by deducting losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred and underwriting and other operating expenses from net premiums earned (this result is also known as underwriting income or loss). The parent loss includes interest expense and the general operating expenses of the holding company, Zenith National Insurance Corp.

NON-GAAP MEASURES

In addition to the financial measures presented in the consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP"), we also use certain non-GAAP financial measures to analyze and report our financial results. Management believes that these non-GAAP measures, when used in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements, can aid in understanding our financial condition and results of operations. These non-GAAP measures are not a substitute for GAAP measures, and where these measures are described we provide information that reconciles the non-GAAP measures to the GAAP measures reported in our consolidated financial statements.

Combined Ratio

The combined ratio, expressed as a percentage, is a key measurement of profitability traditionally used in the property-casualty insurance business. The combined ratio, also referred to as the "calendar year combined ratio," is the sum of the losses and loss adjustment expense ratio and the underwriting and other operating expense ratio. The losses and loss adjustment expense ratio is the percentage of net losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred to net premiums earned. The underwriting and other operating expense ratio is the percentage of underwriting and other operating expenses to net premiums earned. When the calendar year combined ratio is adjusted to exclude prior period items, such as loss reserve development and policyholders' dividends, it becomes the "accident year combined ratio," a non-GAAP financial measure.

Net Cash Flow From the Workers' Compensation Business

Net cash flow from our workers' compensation business is a non-GAAP financial measure that represents the net cash flow generated by deducting from workers' compensation premiums collected during the period the amount of workers' compensation losses and loss adjustment expenses paid and workers' compensation underwriting and other operating expenses paid during the applicable period. We provide this measure to assist in understanding the change in the net cash (used in) provided by operating activities in the periods presented, given that we exited the reinsurance business in 2005. Net cash flow from the workers' compensation business does not include the following: premiums collected, losses paid and underwriting and other operating expenses paid in the reinsurance business; investment income received; interest and other expenses paid by our parent company; and income taxes paid, all of which are included in net cash (used in) provided by operating activities, the most comparable GAAP financial measure of net cash flow. The following table provides a reconciliation of the net cash flow from our workers' compensation business to the net cash (used in) provided by operating activities:

 Three Months
   Ended Six Months Ended June 30, June 30, ------------------- ------------------- (In thousands) 2008 2007 2008 2007 ---------
   -------- -------- --------- Net Cash Flow From Workers' Compensation Business $ 10,598 $ 35,215 $ 17,017 $ 72,222 Net Cash
   Used in Reinsurance Business (3,666) (7,079) (8,971) (18,594) Investment Income Received 18,535 22,653 41,680 51,030 Interest
   and Other Expenses Paid by Parent (2,044) (218) (6,383) (4,281) Income Taxes Paid (42,398) (65,687) (42,735) (80,071) --------
   -------- -------- -------- Net Cash (Used in) Provided by Operating Activities $(18,975) $(15,116) $ 608 $ 20,306 ========
   ======== ======== ======== 

NON-GAAP MEASURES (continued)

Premiums Written

Gross premiums written is a non-GAAP financial measure representing the amount of premiums we have billed to our policyholders in the applicable period. It is indicative of the amount of cash premium before commission expense that we expect to receive from our policies for the applicable period. Net premiums written represent the amount of premiums we have billed to our policyholders in the applicable period less the cost of any reinsurance ceded. Net premiums earned, the most comparable GAAP measure, represent the portion of premiums written that is recognized as earned in the financial statements for the periods presented. Premiums are earned on a pro-rata basis over the term of the policies or reinsurance contracts. The following table provides a reconciliation of workers' compensation gross and net premiums written to net premiums earned:

 Three Months Ended Six Months Ended
   June 30, June 30, ------------------- ------------------- (In thousands) 2008 2007 2008 2007 --------- -------- -------- --------
   Workers' Compensation: Gross Premiums Written $156,912 $187,777 $323,530 $395,019 Ceded Premiums (5,045) (5,411) (9,688) (13,917)
   -------- -------- -------- -------- Net Premiums Written 151,867 182,366 313,842 381,102 Change in Unearned Premiums, Net
   of Reinsurance 1,989 3,975 (1,249) (1,012) -------- -------- -------- -------- Net Premiums Earned $153,856 $186,341 $312,593
   $380,090 ======== ======== ======== ======== 

SOURCE: Zenith National Insurance Corp.

Zenith National Insurance
   Corp. William J. Owen Senior Vice President, Investor Relations 818-676-3936 
Copyright Business Wire 2008 **********************************************************************
   As of Friday, 07-18-2008 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend� Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated a DOWNTREND
   on 06-24-2008 for ZNT @ $37.08. For more information on SmarTrend, contact your market data provider or go to www.mysmartrend.com
   SmarTrend is a registered trademark of Comtex News Network, Inc. Copyright � 2004-2008 Comtex News Network, Inc. All rights
   reserved.
 
 

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