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On the one hand, you'll likely never find anything so aptly named in finance. It is indeed a beige book. But its real title is the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District. About two weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee meets to decide on interest rates, Fed governors get a compilation of how individual Federal Reserve banks view their economic health. (Actually, a different Fed bank is responsible each time to put it together, so they pass the workload around like roommates deciding who'll do the dishes.)
Obviously, it's important stuff. Since it's rather timely, many stock traders and economists use it to gauge whether the Fed has the same view of economic conditions as the market seems to.
But it's not scientific -- even the Fed admits that it's "anecdotal." And the Beige Book is the result of dozens of interviews with economists, bank branch managers, market experts and business leaders. As a result, a survey of pessimists in a district can paint a decidedly glass-half-empty picture. What's more, the Beige Book surveys all 12 Fed districts, and economic conditions in Cleveland can be much different than, say, Richmond, Va.
As a result, the Beige Book is rarely a market-mover, unless it contradicts a bunch of other data. So, check out the summary, but you can find better reports to read before nodding off.
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Thursday, June 19, 2008
Recession Is 'wild Card' For Housing Market: Centex Exec
John Spence
MarketWatch Pulse
BOSTON -- Lawrence Angelilli, senior vice president of finance at Centex Corp. , said the "wild card everyone is waiting to see" in the housing market is if the U.S. slips into a true economic recession. "No one who was unemployed ever bought a house," the executive said during a webcast on Thursday at the Bank of America 2008 Home Builders Conference in New York. Angelilli said the current housing downturn has taken place despite historically low interest rates and unemployment. "If we introduce unemployment ... that could be significant," he said, adding that employment figures are "undoubtedly" the single most important statistic for the housing market.
Copyright © 2008 MarketWatch, Inc.
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