In his weekly radio address, President-elect Barack Obama said an analysis of his economic stimulus plan by two of his team’s economists shows it will save or create three to four million jobs over the next two years, an escalation from his previous statements that it will save or create three million jobs.

This could become the new talking point on job creation in his plan, as his pitch to the public and members of Congress continues.

“The report confirms that our plan will likely save or create three to four million jobs; 90% of these jobs will be created in the private sector -- the remaining 10% are mainly public sector jobs we save, like the teachers, police officers, firefighters and others who provide vital services in our communities,” Obama said in the address Saturday morning.

• READ the full 14-page analysis of President-elect Obama's stimulus plan
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• READ the full transcript of President-elect Obama's radio address

The analysis seeks to address some of the initial objections to Obama’s plan, including that government job creation could amount to 20% of total jobs, which concerned many Republicans, among others.

The Obama transition office attached a 14-page analysis of the plan in its email about the radio address. The analysis was prepared by Dr. Christina Romer, who will chair his Council of Economic Advisors, and Dr. Jared Bernstein, who will be chief economic advisor to Vice President-elect Joseph Biden.

Among other points in the analysis:

--It estimates the package will increase GDP by 3.7% over two years, increasing jobs by 3.675 million. But “given the considerable uncertainty in our estimates…we believe a reasonable range for job creation by the 4th quarter of 2010 is 3.3 million to 4.1 million jobs created.” Romer and Bernstein are using a rule of thumb that every 1% increase in GDP creates one million jobs.

--The estimates include jobs created by “direct” spending on projects, but also “indirect” jobs created -- jobs created by “ripple effect” spending that is generated when new “direct” workers start to receive their compensation. The economic theory is that when “direct” workers start to spend their wages on goods and services, such as new cars, for example, more jobs in auto factories will be created.  Of the 3.675 million jobs the analysis estimates the Obama package would create, 1.456 million would be “direct effect” jobs and 2.219 would be “indirect effect” jobs.

--Job creation would be concentrated in sectors that have been most damaged in the current economic downturn: construction (+678K), retail trades (+604K) and manufacturing (+408K), but also in leisure and hospitality (+499K), professional and business services (+345K), education and health services (+240K) and financial activities (+214K), among others. The analysis puts total government jobs created at 244K.

--The report estimates 42% of the jobs would go to women.

--The jobs would pay “a range of wages.”

--The report estimates the plan would move an estimated 2.7 million part-time workers to full time jobs.

--Without a stimulus package, the authors state that the economy “could lose another three to four million more jobs” and “thus, we are working to counter a potential total job loss of five million” in the current economic downturn.

--Without the package, the authors see the unemployment rate hitting 8.8% in the fourt quarter of 2010. But with the package, they see it at just 7% -- a figure already surpassed by Friday’s December jobs report, in which the unemployment rate hit 7.2%.  In a footnote, the authors add that “some private forecasters anticipate unemployment rates as high as 11%.”

--The authors assume a package of “just slightly over the $775 billion currently under discussion.”

--The estimates are highly qualified, noting that they are “subject to significant margins of error.” As a result, conservative economists and critics are likely to attack this analysis as unrealistic and generate separate reports showing much less job creation from Obama’s plan, if any.

--The analysis also could give ammunition to stimulus plan supporters who are pushing for a larger package, perhaps $1 trillion or more over two years, and to supporters who want to change the composition of the package -- more in direct spending and less in tax cuts, for example.