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Thursday, September 18, 2008
Analysis
GE's Banking Business Comes Under Attack
By Ken Sweet
FOXBusiness

GEDespite today’s massive rally, General Electric (GE) took more than its fair share of beatings this week.
Wall Street attacked GE in recent days in the same fashion as the financials, even though GE makes half its revenue from making manufactured goods like nuclear turbines and refrigerators.
The reason? Because the other half of GE is basically a bank--and investors don't seem to have much confidence in anything related to finance whatsoever.
Concerns among investors revolved around GE’s huge finance business, commonly known as GE Capital, which loans out money for everything from construction equipment and the issuing of credit cards. GE Capital brings in about half of GE’s revenue and profit.
According to research by Deutsche Bank analysts, credit-default swaps, or the cost of insuring GE Capital’s debt widened significantly this week. When CDS spreads rise, it’s a sign that some investors believe GE could default on some its short-term or long-term debt.
Never mind that GE as a company is rated AAA by the major rating agencies--the same rating at the U.S. government.
“GE Capital CDS spreads have widened to unprecedented levels that we see as completely divorced from GE’s AAA balance sheet,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Nigel Coe said in a Thursday note to investors.
The primary concern among Coe and other analysts is that if the short-term financing problems remain in the markets beyond this week's crisis, GE might take a hit to its earnings.
JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa downgraded the earnings potential for GE Capital on Monday, saying the financial segment is going to face “significant head winds” for the rest of this year and into 2009.
Tusa also believed the GE Capital’s financial positions will get “materially worse” before it gets better.
While General Electric is known primarily for building things, GE Capital has been a huge portion of the company’s revenue and profit for decades. Financial services made up 40% of the company’s pre-tax profits in 2007.
Unlike failed financial institutions like Lehman Brothers or struggling ones like American International Group (AIG), GE’s investments are fairly diverse. While it is exposed to the more risky assets like commercial real estate and credit cards, said Morningstar analyst Daniel Holland, it has the reliable business in places like construction loans.
“It would take a lot of really bad things to happen in the market to bring down the book of General Electric,” he said.
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