This time next year, LeBron James, the undisputed king of pro basketball, will need to decide whether 450 miles is all that separates him from becoming the world’s first billion dollar athlete.

If the answer is yes -- and some say it might be -- James will likely dump his small-market Cleveland Cavaliers for the bright lights of New York in an effort to transform his immense star power into a global brand that could exceed that even of Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods.

“There’s no question it would be a smart move for LeBron to move to New York because it’s a bigger stage, a bigger market and a bigger opportunity,” said Tim Calkins, a marketing professor at Northwestern University. “If there’s a pro and con, the opportunity is probably bigger than the risk." 

And it’s not just a dream scenario for beleaguered fans of the New York Knicks, as Manhattan marketers are drooling at the prospect of No. 23 coming to town.

“He’s the most sought after marketing commodity in sports right now. This is someone who is extremely savvy. He gets it,” said Yves Darbouze, CEO of pLot Multimedia, a boutique agency that has done business with the likes of rapper Jay-Z and Toyota (TM). “If he’s as sophisticated as I think he is, he might be on his way.”

Not Just Salary Considerations

Like many decisions, this one is likely to come down to economics, though it’s not just a simple matter of salary because the Cavaliers will be able to offer him more cash and a longer contract under the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. James, 24, inked a three-year, $60 million extension in 2006 that gives him a chance to test the market next summer.

Instead, James, will need to calculate whether or not he can add more value to his brand by being the savior of the Knicks, who haven't accomplished much since the Clinton Administration.

“When the salaries are close, the branding opportunity often becomes more important. That’s the thing that actually lasts,” said Calkins. “If you can build a wonderful brand, it gives you the ability to promote products and have licensing deals that will stretch on for years. Often that dwarfs the salary.”

Speculation has grown that the Cavs may be gearing up for a bidding war as the club recently sold a minority stake to a Chinese company, which could give James greater exposure to this emerging economic power and ownership increased stability.

‘Tripping Over Deals’

Few would argue that New York City, the media capital of the world, doesn’t offer more marketing opportunities for James. It’s clear James would garner more than a few column inches a day in New York’s many newspapers, as well as easy access to the plethora of corporations, marketing firms and fashion companies headquartered in Manhattan.

“He’d be tripping over deals here,” said Darbouze. “He could probably sit in a room with an unlisted number and he wouldn’t be able to stop the phone from ringing off the hook from people who want to do a deal with LeBron James.” 

At the same time, James risks tarnishing his unblemished brand if he fails to turn around the Knicks, especially under intense media pressure.

“To some extent, it’s a double-edged sword. Can you imagine the pressure and media scrutiny he would be under?” said Marshall Glickman, CEO of G2 Strategic and a former president of the Portland Trail Blazers. “As great as he is, he’s only one guy.”

To be sure, James isn’t exactly living in obscurity in Cleveland. He’s already one of the most recognizable athletes in the world, with sponsorship deals with Coca-Cola (KO), State Farm Insurance, Microsoft’s (MSFT) MSN and Nike (NKE), which locked James up with a seven-year, $90 million deal -- the most ever for a basketball player.

Plus, James has been appeared on a slew of magazine covers, including Sports Illustrated, ESPN The Magazine, Vogue and GQ. He’s also hosted the ESPY Awards and Saturday Night Live.

“In his scenario, where he already has the endorsement portfolio, my question would be when is enough enough?” said Steve Rosner, partner at New Jersey-based sports marketing firm 16W.

It's also clear the Cavs won't be rolling over to the whims of the Knicks, who will likely face intense competition from a number of teams, including the rival Nets, who are moving to Brooklyn. 

Carving His Own Brand

It may ultimately come down to what kind of brand James wants to build as he looks to create his own unique identity from Jordan, who he is endless compared to. Darbouze said Nike’s marketing strategy for James has too closely followed its successful playbook for Jordan.

“The LeBron customer isn’t the Jordan customer. It’s a completely different group of kids who consume media in a different way,” said Darbouze, who believes James would benefit from the cutting-edge strategies employed by New York firms like his. “If he made [New York] his headquarters, he could do 10 times what Tiger has done and 100 times what Michael has done, just because of what he has at his fingertips. Not more money, but better money.”