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Friday, October 10, 2008
Hate to See Red? Try Conservative Allocation Funds
By Joanna Ossinger
FOXBusiness

The most conservative, steady-as-she-goes U.S. stock funds have gotten bitten in the market downturn along with the risky ones, proving just how hard it has been to escape the financial downdraft. But they may still be worth a look for investors who don’t have the stomach to watch their portfolios decline as much as, say, the S&P 500, which is off nearly 40% year to date.
Conservative allocation funds are looking relatively good by a couple of measures. Allocation funds parcel out their holdings into different asset classes such as stocks and bonds, seeking to achieve diversification in the one fund. The “conservative” ones will be those that take fewer overall risks -- so they are unlikely to rise as much during the boom times, but also are unlikely to fall as far during bear markets.
As of Oct. 8, only five distinct equity and allocation funds out of 4,817 were posting positive year-to-date returns, according to Morningstar. Four of those are conservative allocation funds: Hussman Strategic Total Return (HSTRX), Pioneer Protected Principal Plus II (PPFAX), Waddell & Reed InvestEd Conservative PTF (WICAX) and GAMCO Mathers (MATRX).
The other, Forester Value (FVALX), is a large-cap value fund.
Though this shows that conservative allocation funds can be good choices for down times, it may be unwise just to look at year-to-date returns; for instance, the Forester Value fund was one of the worst performers in its category for the past several years, because it hunkered down for a bear market a little too early.
HSTRX boasted a positive 4.95% return as of Oct.8. A note from John Hussman on the firm’s Web site said that as of last week, the fund carried “a relatively short duration of only 2.5 years in Treasury securities.”
Hussman continued, “The total return prospects for utilities, foreign currencies and precious metals have significantly improved, so the Fund has about 30% of its assets diversified across these sectors.”
One interesting note in this category is that WICAX is meant for investors who wouldn’t come to mind immediately as conservative -- it’s a 529 plan, meant for children aged 16 and over who need to preserve the money they’ll likely be using soon for college.
Here’s another fund-screen option: the group of 19 distinct U.S. equity and allocation funds identified by Morningstar as having gone at least nine consecutive calendar years with positive growth.
All of them are down. In fact, only four of them are doing better than a -10% year-to-date return as of Oct. 8: Gabelli ABC (GABCX), Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX), Manning & Napier Pro-Blend Conservative Term (EXDAX) and Berwyn Income (BERIX). Gabelli ABC is a mid-cap blend fund, but the others are in Morningstar’s conservative allocation class.
Overall in the group, the conservative funds tend to be down less than the others, so it underscores the argument that they’re good for people who don’t want to see big dips in their portfolio values.
Gabelli ABC (GABCX), with a 14-year streak, was down 5.82% since Dec. 31. It’s run by GAMCO Investors, and managed by Mario Gabelli. Its top holdings as of June 30 were Electronic Data Systems, ChoicePoint, Rural Cellular and Wm. Wrigley Jr. It uses arbitrage strategies, "investing in event-driven situations such as announced mergers, acquisitions and reorganizations."
The Permanent Portfolio, which is down 7.91% year to date and has a 13-year streak of positive annual returns, uses diversification to achieve returns. The fund's Web site says it invests in six asset classes: gold; silver; Swiss franc assets; stocks of global real estate and natural resources companies; aggressive growth stocks; and U.S. Treasury bills, bonds, and other dollar assets.
Manning & Napier Pro-Blend Conservative Term is off 6.25% on the year. The fund, which has a 12-year streak of “up” years, invests 5% to 35% in stocks, with most of the rest in bonds such as government agencies or Treasuries.
M&N Managing Director Patrick Cunningham credited the steady performance to a team approach, saying that the firm’s analysts have to present potential stock buys to a team of seven senior people who decide whether to buy it.
Any one individual will be biased, Cunningham said, and “our goal is to take all the biases out of that process.”
Then, there’s Berwyn Income, which has a nine-year streak of positive annual returns and is down 6.32% on the year.
Ed Killen, co-portfolio manager of Berwyn Income, which holds mostly corporate and high-yield bonds, said the fund’s performance is based on “nothing glamorous -- we’re disciplined about not using external research, we stick to our knitting. This process has helped us to avoid these more speculative areas.”
Killen noted that his fund is concentrating on bonds where “the issuers are generating free cash… We don’t want companies that have to go to the credit markets.” He suggested Church & Dwight (CHD) and Chatham (CHTM) as two such companies.
While these might have been the most exceptional companies in the last months or years -- and just about anyone would say there’s a lot of luck involved with that, too -- it’s evident that conservative allocation funds can be a good option for investors who want to dip a toe in the stock market, but can’t stomach too much of a down side.
Of course, investors always need to bear in mind that they should not count on past performance of any investment to be reflective of future returns. But people who pile into these less risky funds need to remember the bear markets when things are good, and be content with, say 4% or 7% annual returns, when their friends at cocktail parties might be talking about 15% or 20% returns.
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