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Alpha and Beta

A popular Wendy's commercial in the 80s made famous the question: "Where's the beef?" Good one. And here's an even better one: "Where's the alpha?" You might want to whip this one out the next time you meet with your portfolio manager.

Alpha is the over-and-above-the-expected return. It is the "value added." Therefore, it makes sense that a positive alpha means an investment has outperformed its market-predicted return, while a negative alpha would mean just the opposite. The expected return is calculated by a formula that takes into account the investment's level of unavoidable risk (aka beta).

Ever stepped into an elevator and after the doors close you become aware of an almost-suffocating scent coming from the woman next to you who must have bathed in perfume? Well, as you know, once the doors close you can't escape the smell until the ride is over. This is similar to beta, which is risk that can't be reduced or diversified away. A measure of "systematic" or market related risk, beta is used as a measure relative to a certain index -- such as the S&P 500.

So, for example, let¿s say your portfolio is managed to compete against the S&P 500. If you generate a better return than the index while not taking on added risk (standard deviation of returns) then you get alpha. Low beta means the market-related risk is low and vice versa for high beta.

Another example, let's say a mutual fund or stock has a beta of 1.5 relative to the S& P500 ¿ that means it is 1.5 times as risky. So, over time, if the S&P 500 goes up 1%, your portfolio should be up 1.5% plus (one can hope) some percentage of alpha. If the S&P 500 is down 1%, your portfolio should be down 1.5%.

Alpha and beta are based off of linear regression of a set of data. Warning: this may cause a high school fifth-period flashback, but it will be over before you know it:
The equation for a line is Y = a + bX.

a = alpha (the Y intercept - the added value)
b = Beta (the coefficient you multiply X by)
X = S&P 500 (in this case)
Y = your portfolio

Home / Markets

Uptick

Market Shrugs off Bearish News

 
Matt Egan
FOXBusiness
 

Stocks traded higher Monday morning in the face of a gloomy earnings outlook from retailer Lowe's and $127 oil prices.

Today's Market

As of 10:20 a.m. EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 31.91 points, or 0.27% to 13020.18, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 4.64 points, or 0.36%, to 1430.46 and the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 10.20 points, or 0.40%, to 2539.48. The consumer-friendly Fox 50 rose 1.04 points, or 0.10%, to 1006.01.

Bullish traders will hope to build the gains the stock market made last week, even as stocks closed flat on Friday thanks to $126 oil and a 27-year low for consumer sentiment. The Dow has advanced four out of the past five weeks and the Nasdaq Composite ended last week at its highest level of 2008. 

General Motors (GM) led the Dow in recent trading, rising 1.4% on favorable labor news. Shares of Disney (DIS) slid almost 1% after Pali Research reportedly cut the media and entertainment giant to "neutral" from "buy." 

Home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW) gave Wall Street the headline earnings report on Monday, beating the street with 41 cents per share in earnings during the first quarter. However, the company slashed its earnings outlook, sending shares 3.5% lower. The report could be a prelude to disappointment from rival Home Depot (HD), which reports later this week and has already warned in recent months of the negative impact the housing slump has had on sales.

Still, the market held strong and avoided a selloff in the face of the bearish Lowe's report.

"There are more reasons to sell stocks than there are to buy them but the market continues to move higher," Ted Weisberg of Seaport Securities told FOX Business. Seaport said "the market continues to react remarkably well in light of the fact there are so many problems out there," citing geopolitical crises, oil prices and domestic political uncertainty.

Much of the talk on Wall Street surrounds that latest in the on-again off-again negotiations between Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo! (YHOO). On Sunday, Microsoft said it is in talks over a possible collaboration regarding Yahoo's Internet advertising business. This comes after merger talks between the two tech giants broke down last month.

It also appears to be an alternative proposal to an advertising pact Google (GOOG) has been attempting to make with Yahoo. Microsoft said in its Sunday statement that it “is considering and has raised with Yahoo! an alternative that would involve a transaction with Yahoo! but not an acquisition of all of Yahoo!."

Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain near record territory to start the week. In recent trading, oil gained 47 cents to $126.80 a barrel. Gold rose $8.30 to $908.20 an ounce.

Corporate Movers

Electronic Arts (ERTS) extended its offer for Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) for another month. EA is still offering $25.74 for Take-Two, the publisher of the highly popular "Grand Theft Auto" video game that brought in a record $500 million in its first week. The deadline was extended by EA to June 16, "unless further extended." EA offered to buy Take Two for $2 billion, but Take Two has rejected that offer saying it was too low.

Amazon.com (AMZN) rose 3.7% after Goldman Sachs (GS) added the online retailer to its conviction buy list and upped the stock's six-month price target to $98 from $75, according to Thomson Reuters. The firm reportedly cited revenue expansion expectations and the potential for a "deep recession" to reduce offline competition. 

Campbell Soup (CPB) missed estimates in its fiscal third quarter, posting adjusted-earnings of 43 cents a share, compared with a year ago profit of 45 cents a share. Sales increased to $1.88 billion, but profit was hurt by rising food costs, the soup maker said.  Analysts had been expecting 44 cents per share and $1.9 billion in revenue. Shares of Campbell tumbled 4.2%. 

Texas Instruments (TXN) jumped 2.4% on an upgrade from Citi Investment Research to "buy" from "hold." Citi analyst Glen Yeung upped his price target on the chip maker to $39 from $31 and added the stock to his "Top Picks Live" list, removing rival Intel (INTC). 

DeVry (DV) tumbled 7.1% after the educational services company acknowledged it is cooperating with the Department of Justice over allegations it may have submitted false claims or false statements to the Department of Education. DeVry, which said it was first contacted by DOJ earlier this month, said it will fully cooperate by handing over relevant documents, including ones related to recruiter compensation and performance evaluation. 

JetBlue (JBLU) and Alaska Air (ALK) benefited from upgrades to "neutral" from "underweight" by JPMorgan Chase (JPM), according to Dow Jones. On the other hand, JPMorgan reportedly lowered Continental (CAL) to "underweight" from "neutral," citing valuation. 

Dell (DELL) said Monday that Don Carty, vice chairman and chief financial officer, has resigned effective June 13. The computer company said Brian Gladden, formerly president and CEO of GE Plastics, will replace Carty.

Data Dump

A private research group said its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in April, as had been expected. The Conference Board said the results give credence to the thinking that the economic slowdown could fall short of an all-out recession. 

"The data certainly reflect a weak economy but not one in recession," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.

World Markets

The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index, a gauge of the 50 biggest companies in Europe, fell 11.62 points, or 0.3%, to 3851.29. The FTSE 100, London's benchmark index, gained 8.90points, or 0.14%, to 6313.20. 

On the continent, Paris's CAC 40 Index picked up 15.50 points, or 0.31%, to 5093.54 while Germany's DAX gained 24.43 points, or 0.34%, to 7180.98. 

In Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 Index gained 50.13 points to 14269.61. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 123.37 points to 25742.23.

 

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