The cost of the FOX Business Shopping Cart fell 31 cents, or 0.4%, in November -- the second consecutive month-to-month decline -- falling to the lowest level since July. And, according to analysts at the Chicago Federal Reserve, food prices could fall further.

In the last year, the cost of the items in the Cart is up $4.63, or 6.3%, the smallest year-year increase since May. The total cost of the 31-item cart in November was $77.83.

The drop in the cost of the items in the basket came as average hourly earnings increased nine cents in November. As a result, it took the average wage-earner 4 hours and 15 minutes to earn the cost of the items in the basket, down from 4 hours and 17 minutes in October. Though down from the previous month, the average time to earn the cost of the items of the Cart is up about 6 minutes from a year ago.

There was no single category that pulled down the cost of the entire Cart month over month as meat, dairy products and produce all declined.

On a year-over-year basis though, grain-based products -- specifically flour and pasta -- continued noticeable jumps in prices along with potato products (potatoes themselves and potato chips). A pound of pasta cost almost 36% more in November than a year ago and the price for a pound of potatoes jumped more almost 33%.

The FBN Shopping Cart includes basic food items -- milk, butter, eggs, bread, meat, fruit and vegetables -- as well as fun foods such as potato chips, chocolate chip cookies, soda, beer and ice cream. All the items are tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the monthly consumer price index report.

The most recent CPI report showed the cost of “food at home” increased a bit more slowly than the cost of “food away from home” in November. Food at home, 7.7% of CPI, increased 0.2% in November but is up 6.0% year-over-year while food away from home rose 0.3% month-month and is up 4.9% year-over-year.

Prices went up in November for 13 of the items in the basket, matching October.

In the past year, prices rose for 24 of the items in the cart, matching October.

The price increases earlier in the year when the cost of the FBN Shopping Cart rose $4.43 from January through September -- according to participants in a conference on food prices sponsored by the Chicago Federal Reserve -- were driven by energy costs, both directly and indirectly.

According to Iowa State's John Miranowski, a participant at the October conference, about 12% of corn-farm operating expenses, for example, were for direct energy consumption, but 50% were for indirect energy inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides. With energy prices dropping precipitously, those costs should fall as well.

While farming costs have increased, another conference participant, Robert Thompson of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign said the share of food prices attributed to farmers averaged 19% -- ranging from 6% for cereals to 47% for beef. Instead, he said, higher diesel fuel costs for transportation of all foods added significantly to food costs.

Since the conference at the beginning of October though, the price of a gallon of diesel fuel fell from $3.875 to $2.664 at the end of November and fell to $2.366 by mid-December.

Another participant from the same school, Professor Gary Schnitkey, noted farmers have to choose between crops such as corn or soybeans. He said farmers have higher relative returns for corn than soybeans even though it costs about 75% more per acre to produce corn than to grow soybeans. Nonetheless the higher costs for corn lead to higher feed costs for livestock producers and higher prices for consumers.

Food prices, according to the conference summary, are also influence by global demand with the US Department of Agriculture estimating commodity prices had increased 130% since 2002. Ronald Trostle of the USDA attributed the rapid increase to rising populations, rapid economic growth and increasing per capita meat consumption.

[FOX Business's Adam Samson contributed to this report.]