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Food Costs, Home Prices Step Into Focus

 
     
    Up and coming 276

    We’re supposed to get indigestion during Thanksgiving week -- overeating and otherwise indulging. Instead it was in the week just ended when we were over-loaded with a week’s worth of economic data in just two days. It will be just about the same next week.

    There will be a slow build with reports Monday from the Conference Board on help wanted advertising and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank’s industry survey, both of which are likely to continue to drop. Downward movement in the monthly Fox Business Shopping Cart will be a positive as it signals highlighting the movement in food costs.

    That may be the only good news of the week, though, as Tuesday’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index report for October will likely mirror data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported in the week just ended showing a further decline in home prices.

    The drop in home prices will mute the impact of the sharp increase we saw in the demand for mortgages in the weekly report of the Mortgage Bankers Association. Activity was concentrated in refinance applications with a lot of hurdles to overcome before those loans close. That said those who do qualify will see sharply lower monthly payments: for a $300,000 loan at 6%, the monthly payment would be reduced from $1,799 to $1,645 at current rates. The caveat is that home values continue to fall and since refinances are based on appraisals, not negotiated transactions, lenders may question values.

    Just how widespread the savings will be is also an open question: about 48 million homeowners have mortgages but about 25% of them owe more on their homes than the house is worth. With the labor market seizing, a sizeable share of the remaining 36 million homeowners may not qualify for refinancing.

    That’s unfortunate for several reasons not the least of which the boost the cut in mortgage payments would mean for consumer spending. Consumers remained on strike in November, continuing the gloomy start to the fourth quarter and firming forecasts of a steeper fall in gross domestic product. Consumption represents about 70% of GDP. The 1.6% drop in spending for the first two months of the quarter is the worst two-month decline since this data series began in 1959. Real -- inflation adjusted -- consumer spending increased in November, reflecting not so much a spending increase, but price declines.

    As troublesome as the spending report was, the data also showed continuing weak wage growth which is exacerbated by the decline in payroll jobs. The slow wage growth adds to pressure on household budgets. It will likely increase the number of people looking for work which -- because they then meet the Bureau of Labor Statistics definition for “unemployed” -- will send the unemployment rate higher. (Individuals out of work but not seeking a job are not counted as unemployed.)

    First-time claims for unemployment insurance, meanwhile, shot up to 586,000 -- though that figure may have been affected by auto-industry furloughs since auto workers can collect unemployment insurance without having to wait (at least in Michigan). Initial claims may retreat, but continuing claims will remain high until the plants are re-opened.

     

    MONDAY, December 29 Fox Business Shopping Cart (Nov)
      October actual: $78.14 DOWN 0.02%
      No November consensus
       
      Conference Board Help Wanted Advertising Index (Nov)
      October actual: 14 DOWN 1
      No November consensus
       
      Dallas Fed Survey (Dec)
      November actual: 61.0 DOWN 1.6
      No December consensus
       
    TUESDAY, December 30 Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Oct) (Y-Y Δ)
      10 City Index
      September actual: 173.25 DOWN 18.6%
      No October consensus
      20 City Index
      September actual: 161.56 DOWN 17.4%
      October consensus: 159 DOWN 17.6%
       
      Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Dec)
      November actual: 33.8 DOWN 4.0
      December consensus: 33.0
       
      Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Dec)
      November actual: 44.9 UP 6.1
      December consensus: 45.2
       
      Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey (Dec)
      November actual: 31.0 DOWN 8.0
      No December consensus
       
    WEDNESDAY, December 31 MBA Application Index (Week ended: December 26)
      Week Ended December 19: 1,245.4 UP 48.0%
      Four-week moving average: 772.3 UP 20.4%
      No December 26 consensus 
       
      Unemployment Insurance Claims (Week Ended December 27)
      December 20 Actual: 586,000 UP 30,000
      December 27 Consensus:  560,000
      Four-week moving average: 558,000 UP 13,750
      No December 27 consensus
       
    THURSDAY January 1 NEW YEAR HOLIDAY
      No Data Releases
       
    FRIDAY, January 2 ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec)
      November actual: 36.2 DOWN 2.7
      December consensus: 35.4

     

    Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the New York Association for Business Economics. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

     

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    Street Name

    It's time to let you in on a dirty little secret: You may not own the stock you own. That's right, if you invest with a brokerage firm, the shares you bought are almost certainly not held in your name. Technically, they're held in the name of the Wall Street firm you do business with, hence the term "street name."

    No, you haven't been robbed. Ultimately, the decision to hold shares on the books under a different name doesn't affect the economic ramifications for you. You¿re listed as the "beneficial owner," even though the firm is the official owner of the shares. But, you are giving up some rights, and investors concerned about good corporate governance might want to get that stock back in their own names.

    Here's the problem: If your stock is technically owned by, say, Merrill Lynch, then Merrill Lynch gets to do things with it that might work against your wishes. Take short selling. Investors who want to sell shares short need to first borrow those shares. The lenders are often the big Wall Street firms that are handing out Street-name shares. So, if you feel that a company you own is a victim of aggressive short selling, chances are your own shares are being used to fuel the shorting.

    Also, your brokerage firm can cast ballots on some corporate matters affecting a company without getting your input. Technically, this can only happen in votes considered ¿routine¿ by securities regulators. But, there's a big catch: some big events, like board elections, are considered "routine" under law.

    The good news is that you can easily fix the Street name problem: Just request that your brokerage firm makes you the listed owner of the shares. If they refuse, find a new firm.