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Friday, December 26, 2008
Up and Coming
Food Costs, Home Prices Step Into Focus
Mark Lieberman, Senior Economist
FOXBusiness

We’re supposed to get indigestion during Thanksgiving week -- overeating and otherwise indulging. Instead it was in the week just ended when we were over-loaded with a week’s worth of economic data in just two days. It will be just about the same next week.
There will be a slow build with reports Monday from the Conference Board on help wanted advertising and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank’s industry survey, both of which are likely to continue to drop. Downward movement in the monthly Fox Business Shopping Cart will be a positive as it signals highlighting the movement in food costs.
That may be the only good news of the week, though, as Tuesday’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index report for October will likely mirror data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported in the week just ended showing a further decline in home prices.
The drop in home prices will mute the impact of the sharp increase we saw in the demand for mortgages in the weekly report of the Mortgage Bankers Association. Activity was concentrated in refinance applications with a lot of hurdles to overcome before those loans close. That said those who do qualify will see sharply lower monthly payments: for a $300,000 loan at 6%, the monthly payment would be reduced from $1,799 to $1,645 at current rates. The caveat is that home values continue to fall and since refinances are based on appraisals, not negotiated transactions, lenders may question values.
Just how widespread the savings will be is also an open question: about 48 million homeowners have mortgages but about 25% of them owe more on their homes than the house is worth. With the labor market seizing, a sizeable share of the remaining 36 million homeowners may not qualify for refinancing.
That’s unfortunate for several reasons not the least of which the boost the cut in mortgage payments would mean for consumer spending. Consumers remained on strike in November, continuing the gloomy start to the fourth quarter and firming forecasts of a steeper fall in gross domestic product. Consumption represents about 70% of GDP. The 1.6% drop in spending for the first two months of the quarter is the worst two-month decline since this data series began in 1959. Real -- inflation adjusted -- consumer spending increased in November, reflecting not so much a spending increase, but price declines.
As troublesome as the spending report was, the data also showed continuing weak wage growth which is exacerbated by the decline in payroll jobs. The slow wage growth adds to pressure on household budgets. It will likely increase the number of people looking for work which -- because they then meet the Bureau of Labor Statistics definition for “unemployed” -- will send the unemployment rate higher. (Individuals out of work but not seeking a job are not counted as unemployed.)
First-time claims for unemployment insurance, meanwhile, shot up to 586,000 -- though that figure may have been affected by auto-industry furloughs since auto workers can collect unemployment insurance without having to wait (at least in Michigan). Initial claims may retreat, but continuing claims will remain high until the plants are re-opened.
| MONDAY, December 29 | Fox Business Shopping Cart (Nov) |
| October actual: $78.14 DOWN 0.02% | |
| No November consensus | |
| Conference Board Help Wanted Advertising Index (Nov) | |
| October actual: 14 DOWN 1 | |
| No November consensus | |
| Dallas Fed Survey (Dec) | |
| November actual: 61.0 DOWN 1.6 | |
| No December consensus | |
| TUESDAY, December 30 | Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Oct) (Y-Y Δ) |
| 10 City Index | |
| September actual: 173.25 DOWN 18.6% | |
| No October consensus | |
| 20 City Index | |
| September actual: 161.56 DOWN 17.4% | |
| October consensus: 159 DOWN 17.6% | |
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Dec) | |
| November actual: 33.8 DOWN 4.0 | |
| December consensus: 33.0 | |
| Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Dec) | |
| November actual: 44.9 UP 6.1 | |
| December consensus: 45.2 | |
| Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey (Dec) | |
| November actual: 31.0 DOWN 8.0 | |
| No December consensus | |
| WEDNESDAY, December 31 | MBA Application Index (Week ended: December 26) |
| Week Ended December 19: 1,245.4 UP 48.0% | |
| Four-week moving average: 772.3 UP 20.4% | |
| No December 26 consensus | |
| Unemployment Insurance Claims (Week Ended December 27) | |
| December 20 Actual: 586,000 UP 30,000 | |
| December 27 Consensus: 560,000 | |
| Four-week moving average: 558,000 UP 13,750 | |
| No December 27 consensus | |
| THURSDAY January 1 | NEW YEAR HOLIDAY |
| No Data Releases | |
| FRIDAY, January 2 | ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec) |
| November actual: 36.2 DOWN 2.7 | |
| December consensus: 35.4 |
Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the New York Association for Business Economics. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
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