Led by spurt in meat prices, the total cost of the Fox Business Shopping Cart rose 13 cents or 0.2% in May – the second consecutive month-month increase and the first time the cost of the shopping cart has increased for two straight months since last August-September. The total cost for the 31-item basket was $75.77 in May.

In the last year, the cost of the items in the cart is up 88 cents, or 1.2%, slightly below the 1.6% year-year increase registered in April.

In May, average hourly earnings edged up 2 cents to $18.54 which means it the average worker slightly about the same time to earn the cost of the entire basket in May as it did in April: four hours and five minutes The good news is a year earlier, the average wage earner had to work four hours and ten minutes to earn the money necessary to pay for the items in the basket.

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FBN calculates “minutes to earn” by dividing the cost of the basket by average hourly earnings as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While average hourly earnings edged up in May, weekly hours actually declined slightly, to a record low 33.1 hours (matching the low set in March) which means though the average worker could earn the cost of the shopping cart in about the same time, the time spent still represented a greater percentage of the workweek than it had a year ago when the average work week, according to BLS, was 33.7. A year ago average weekly earnings were $606.26 compared with $613.67 this May.

The FBN Shopping Cart includes basic food items -- milk, butter, eggs, bread, meat, fruit and vegetables -- as well as fun foods such as potato chips, chocolate chip cookies, soda, beer and ice cream. All the items are tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the monthly consumer price index report.

The cost of meat items in the shopping rose 27¢ in May, more than dairy items (up 12¢) and grain products (up 10¢). Produce dropped 14¢ but prices fell for “other” items such as chocolate chip cookies, beer, potato chips, ice cream, peanut butter and sugar which dropped a combined 22¢.

In May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total consumer price index rose 0.1% but year-year, the CPI was down 1.3%, the third consecutive month of “deflation.” The food price component of CPI index – representing 15.8% of CPI -- fell for the fourth straight month and year-year the food index rose 2.7%, the slowest since January 2007.

The drop in food prices was driven by “food at home” which fell 0.5% in May while “food away from home” rose 0.1%.

The increase in meat prices in the Shopping Cart seemed to surprise some food executives. Janet Riley, senior vice president for public affairs of the American Meat Institute said she was unaware of month-month price increases for sirloin steak, bologna and ham, even as the price for a pound of ground chuck dropped. The American Meat Institute is a national trade association, representing packers and processors of meat and poultry products and their suppliers.

Other trade associations pointed to oil prices as the primary reason for price increases, even for items as diverse as peanut butter, potato chips and milk.

Both Patrick Archer, president of the American Peanut Council, and Jim McCarthy of the Snack Food Association both pointed to increases in the cost of plastic – an oil-based product – as contributing to the increase in prices for peanut butter an potato chips.

The price of a pound of peanut butter is at an all time high.

“During a recession sales of peanut butter usually increase since it is an excellent and inexpensive source of protein,” according to Archer. He said though the laws of supply and demand are not causing the run-up in price “because last year’s peanut crop was very large.” He acknowledged though planting have been reduced 27% this year and weather during planting has generally been poor.”

Chris Galen of the National Milk Producers Federation said the higher cost of fuel affects retail prices for dairy products in general with products requiring additional pricing such as American cheese or ice cream affected by other factors. The price of a gallon of whole milk fell slightly in May but is down about 18%, 69¢ from a year ago. The price of a pound of American cheese was higher in May than in April but edged down from May 2008.

According to Galen, higher prices for grains and “oil seeds” such as corn and soy beans drove up the cost of raising cows but farmers have been limited in their ability to pass those higher costs through to retail customers.

McCarthy said manufacturers of snack foods faced competitive pressures on prices. Those pressures though have not forestalled a sharp year-year hike in the price of a pound of potato chips – up 60¢or 15.7% in the last year. The price of a pound of potato chips retreated about 25¢ from the all-time high in April. Even though volume sales for potato chips fell slightly in 2008 – the last data year – dollar sales increased to $3.2 billion, “growth that emphasizes a continuing trend that many consumers still crave their chips.” McCarthy acknowledged anecdotal reports the recession has contributed to increased demand as more families stay home.

Officials at Nabisco and the American Bakers Association didn’t respond to requests for explanations for increases in the price of chocolate chip cookies –up 12.2% in the last year – and white bread – up about 3% in the last year.

Of the 31 items in the basket, prices rose for 14 in May, matching April. The price for one item – beer – was unchanged as it had been in April. In the last year through prices increased for 19 items – matching April. Prices dropped for 12 items.

Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the New York Association for Business Economics. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.