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Monday, January 26, 2009
FBN Shopping Cart Declines for Third Straight Month
Mark Lieberman, Senior Economist
FOXBusiness

The total cost of the FOX Business Shopping Cart fell 11 cents, or 0.1%, in December to $77.72 -- its lowest level since July and the third straight month the total cost has declined.
At the same time, it took the average wage-earner one minute less to earn the money necessary to pay for the 31 items in the basket -- 4 hours and 14 minutes, the least time since June. December was the third straight month the amount of time needed to earn the cost of the items in the basket has dropped.
FBN calculates “minutes to earn” by dividing the cost of the basket by average hourly earnings as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average hourly earnings increased in December to $18.36 from $18.31 in November although hours worked dropped to an all-time low -- 33.3. Rolled together, this means while the average worker could earn the cost of the shopping cart faster, the spent represented a greater percentage of the workweek.
In the last year the total cost of the basket is up 6.12%, the slowest year-over-year increase since May and the time needed to earn the cost of the items is up just 2.36%, the smallest increase since February.
The FBN Shopping Cart includes basic food items -- milk, butter, eggs, bread, meat, fruit and vegetables -- as well as fun foods such as potato chips, chocolate chip cookies, soda, beer and ice cream. All the items are tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the monthly consumer price index report.
The most recent CPI report showed the cost of food was essentially flat from November to December and is up about 5.8% from December 2007. The cost of “food at home” fell 0.4% in December while the cost of “food away from home” increased 0.3%. The cost of food at home increased about 5.8% from December 2007 while food away from home is up 5.0% year-over-year.
A sharp drop in the cost of produce was the catalyst for the drop in prices in December, If the 31 items in the basket, seven represent farm products. Collectively the prices of produce fell 34 cents, about 3.2% from November. The cost of dairy products -- four of the 31 items -- dropped 10 cents, 0.7%. On the flip side, the cost of meat products -- nine items -- increased 24 cents, or 0.8%; and the cost of grain products -- three items -- rose a scant three cents, almost 1.0%.
Earlier in the year, grain products had driven the cost of the basket up sharply, reflecting demand for corn which led farmers, where possible, to shift to corn from other crops. At the same time, cattle ranchers, felt the squeeze and rushed product to market to because of high feeding costs. That, in turn, increased supply and drove prices down.
Energy too has an impact on food prices both because energy is a key component of farming -- think fertilizer -- as well as getting the product to market. Indeed the slowing increase and eventual decline in the cost of the shopping cart items parallels the movement in fuel prices: the cost of a gallon of diesel fuel in mid-December was $2.42, down from $4.76 in mid-July.
Of the 31 items in the basket, prices rose for 13 in December, equal to the number that rose in November. In the last year overall, prices increased for 26 items, compared with increases for 24 items from November 2007 to November 2008.
There was some comfort in the movement of the cost of some fun foods in December: the cost of a pound of chocolate-chip cookies fell about 2% (6 cents) and the cost of a half-gallon of ice cream dropped 12 cents or 2.6%. A pound of potato chips though increased 15 cents or 3.5% but the cost of a pint of malt beverage was unchanged.






