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Thursday, August 20, 2009
Why Wyoming's Jobless Rate Is So Low
By Jason Racki
FOXBusiness

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo.--As economic luminaries gather in Grand Teton National Park this Friday for the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve symposium, they arrive in a state that has quietly maintained an unemployment rate at just over half the national average.
In June, Wyoming's unemployment rate was 5.7%, compared to 9.5% nationally, according to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In Jackson Hole, a famed rustic-style playground for skiers and other outdoor enthusiasts, figures from the city's Chamber of Commerce show a July unemployment rate at a mere 4.7%.
But despite such rosy figures, Wyoming's economy has hardly been immune from the downturn, and its relatively low unemployment rate -- at least compared to national figures -- has still risen substantially.
The state's economy relies heavily on energy extraction from fields in the Powder River Basin, located in northeast Wyoming. When commodity prices surged in early 2008, Wyoming benefited, like many energy-focused economies.
However with the financial crisis, and subsequent recession, demand eventually fell. With it, inventories ballooned, prices have plunged by nearly 70%, and an "effective collapse" in the sector followed, says University of Wyoming economics professor Robert Godby.
In fact, he tells FOX Business that in the six-month period from January to June, the state lost 11,700 jobs, the equivalent of all jobs created in Wyoming from May 2006 through the end of 2008.
"While Wyoming's rate of unemployment is wonderful compared to many areas of the country," Godby says, "recent unemployment losses are among the worst recorded here in over 25 years."
Godby points to some numbers to support his argument. In 2008, the natural-gas industry drilled an average of 300 wells per month in the state. In June 2009, not a single additional well was dug.
Moreover, he says, Wyoming's natural-gas inventories are so high that a spike in demand would not create a quick turnaround in the job market.

In other words, until the national economy picks up, and domestic demand for natural gas rises significantly, the state's economy will remain subdued -- low unemployment rate or not.
The unemployment rate is expected “to top out at 6.5%,” Godby adds, "effectively doubling the rate in December 2008 when employment began to contract."
Still, Godby and his colleagues at the university point to a hidden factor that keeps the unemployment rate down in times
like these.
He says Wyoming tends to attract workers when the energy market is strong -- and that many often leave when work dries up.
That may be happening this time too.
"Wyoming has always had lower unemployment rates during declines," Godby puts it, "because they leave for greener pastures
when times are tough."
The state is helped by some other factors, too. The subprime crisis hit Wyoming with much less vigor. Most new housing construction was driven by energy-sector growth, not by speculators looking to make a flip.
In addition, the leisure and hospitality sector has maintained strength. While June employment figures show a 3.5% statewide drop in the sector from last year, the number of visitors to Grand Teton National Park rose in July from the year before -- and total visitors from January through July are also up.
Economists theorize that’s because Americans are not giving up their vacations entirely in this downturn. Instead, many are opting for destinations such as the nation's parks, rather than resorts or potentially more expensive international locales -- benefiting places like Wyoming, and in particular, Jackson Hole.

“Given the economic conditions across America, we are encouraged by the increased number of visitors to Grand Teton National Park,” says Jackie Skaggs of the National Park Service. “National parks offer an economical vacation with alternatives that are low cost, but high value.”
A week-long pass to both Grand Teton and Yellowstone for a family car costs $25.
Yet, until the national economy turns around, demand returns for the state's energy commodities, and tourists flock in even larger numbers to the state's parks and ski slopes, many here maintain a cautious near-term outlook.
In that sense, despite its enviable unemployment rate, Wyoming hopes for the same kind of turnaround as Michigan, or Florida, or California does.
The economic statistics may appear on the surface to be better here than in some other states. But as symposium attendees consider broader macroeconomic trends -- a primary theme this year -- Wyomingites will be listening just as closely as everyone else.
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