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Will Transition to Obama Be Like FDR's From Hoover?

 
     

    The current economic meltdown is frequently compared with the “Great” Depression, and it’s not surprising the transition from George W. Bush to Barack Obama may inspire the same. It is sorely tempting to reach back to history to look at the transition from Herbert Hoover to Franklin Delano Roosevelt following the 1932 election.

    The numbers, while not exactly supporting the claim, come close.

    • Moody’s Economy.com estimates about 12 million homeowners are “under water,” that is, they owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. That’s about one of every four homes with a mortgage. Martin Feldstein, President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, estimates another 10% drop in home values would increase the ratio of homes “under water” to about four in 10.
    • Since the beginning of the year, the economy has shed 760,000 payroll jobs and Friday’s employment report could push that figure to -- or past -- one million.
    • The unemployment rate has increased from 4.7% to 6.1% in the past year.
    • Gross Domestic Product has fallen for two of the last four quarters, and year over year it has grown just 0.8%, the weakest growth since the fourth quarter of 2001.

    When Bill Clinton was elected President in 1992 with the country still feeling the effect of the 1990-91 recession, his approval ratings faded quickly -- even before he took office -- when his election did not immediately bring about much-touted change.

    So, what is a President-elect to do?

    The answer is, there’s not much he can do. Obama won’t take the oath of office until January 20 -- 75 days after he was elected. A lot of damage can be done in that space if not by action, than by inaction.

    The power remains with the sitting President. Here’s where the Roosevelt-Hoover history may be instructive. The economy was collapsing under Hoover and some histories notwithstanding, he did not sit idly running out the clock until Roosevelt took office on March 4, 1933. (The inauguration date was accelerated to January 20 during Roosevelt’s terms in office.)

    Roosevelt and Hoover, according to Jonathan Alter in his book, “The Defining Moment: FDR's Hundred Days and the Triumph of Hope” played-cat and-mouse in trying to address the Depression -- and played politics, in part perhaps because Roosevelt defeated Hoover in the election in 1932.

    “Whatever the long-term policy consequences, the personal relationship between Hoover and Roosevelt was not moving from bad to worse. Usually, outgoing and incoming presidents battle fiercely in the campaign, then are polite during the transition. Not this time. Hoover was determined to play pin-some-blame on the Democratic donkey; Roosevelt wanted to make sure that the people remembered that it was Republicans who had forgotten their interests. If this meant sitting by idly while the economy sunk lower, FDR could live with that.” 

    Hoover, according to Alter, tried to involve Roosevelt in end-of-term actions, suggesting to the then-President-elect that they jointly appoint delegates to a World Economic Conference to be held in June 1933 (three months after FDR’s inauguration), a highly touted meeting which was arranged to tackle the global Depression. Roosevelt rejected the overture, fearing that his New Deal would be seen as just a continuation of the Hoover Administration if he worked with the departing President.

    Alter wrote that on February 18, just two weeks before inauguration day, Hoover tried again to enlist Roosevelt into a joint effort  -- including a bank holiday -- to stabilize markets, but again Roosevelt rebuffed the President. 

    In his book, Alter quotes James Warburg, a member of Roosevelt’s inner circle. The Roosevelt brain trust "wanted it to get as bad as it was going to get before he took office, so that he could come in on the turn rather than in the continuing downward spiral.”

    For his part, years later, Hoover wrote the bank crisis that ensued “was the most political and unnecessary bank panic in all our history” and “it could have been cured by simple cooperation.”

    The Bush team, to be sure, has taken steps -- many of them uncoordinated -- to attempt to deal with the economic meltdown. What it will do in the time between now and January 20 is unclear.

    Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was characteristically vague following a meeting of Bush’s cabinet Thursday.

    “A methodical and orderly transition is in the best interests of the financial markets and Treasury is committed to making sure that the incoming team can hit the ground running in January,” Paulson said. “The next [Treasury] Secretary will also benefit from the support of an exceptional staff of hard-working career employees at Treasury who are critical to the important work before the Department.”

    The Hoover-Roosevelt comparison with Bush-Obama breaks down since Bush was not defeated for re-election. He couldn’t run. But that difference -- without the political rancor that flows from a bitter campaign -- provides opportunity. Could Bush, once Obama announces his economic team, immediately appoint a new Treasury Secretary -- Obama’s choice -- or at least insert that individual into the Treasury to truly enable him, or her, to “hit the ground running.”

    There is incentive for both Bush and Obama to agree. For Bush it might serve to rescue an economic legacy; for Obama it would represent the change he promises.

    Obama famously celebrates each Election Day by playing basketball. He might recall words of legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden:

    “It’s amazing how much we can accomplish if nobody cares who gets the credit.”

    Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the New York Association for Business Economics. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

     

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