The last data week before Election Day will be crammed with information and activity offering commentary and an assessment on what has emerged as the major issue for voters.

Indeed, the loudest comment on the economy will be Wednesday’s announcement of the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on the Fed Funds rate. A further cut in rates -- which would be supported by indicators -- would be a further acknowledgement of the economic slowdown that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke refused, in Congressional testimony, to label a recession.

When asked about the “R” word during an appearance before the House Budget Committee, Bernanke demurred.

“We are in a serious slowdown in the economy, which has very significant consequences for the public,” he said, “and whether it’s called a recession or not is of no consequence.”

Bernanke’s refusal to label the slowdown notwithstanding, concern about the economy will carry into Tuesday’s two-day FOMC meeting. At its last scheduled meeting on September 16, the FOMC held the target Fed Funds rate at 2.00%. (The FOMC, though, took two further steps to reduce that rate: agreeing to pay interest on required bank reserves -- which, in effect, put a floor under the Fed Funds rate and then taking an inter-meeting vote to actually cut the rate to 1.50%.) Data since the last meeting virtually cry out for a rate cut. Every significant category has slowed.

While the unemployment rate remained at 6.1%, the number of payroll jobs fell 159,000, the ninth consecutive monthly decline and worst job month-month job loss since March 2003.

Despite Friday’s report showing a month-to-month increase in existing home sales, sales remain sluggish at best and values continue to fall. The bump in the report of existing home sales in fact was driven by a fire sale of foreclosed homes. Sales in the West census region accounted for two-thirds of the increase in sales and five of the 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates are in the West.

Retail sales fell in September, the third consecutive month-to-month decline and the steepest monthly plunge since August 2005. Retail sales are about 40% of personal consumption spending which itself is about 70% of the economy.
Industrial production plummeted in September to a three-year low.

The other concern for the FOMC Tuesday will be inflation. There the news may be better. The headline all-item consumer price index fell in September for the second straight month and year-over-year inflation rate dropped, falling below 5.0%, still high but moving in the right direction. The increase in the core index was the slowest since April and the annual core inflation rate remained -- barely -- within the FOMC’s comfort zone.

Though the FOMC action may have to be interpreted to get a reading on the economy data the next day will be clearer when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the first pass (advance) report of third quarter Gross Domestic Product, expected to be negative. It would be the second negative quarter in the last four. Personal consumption through the first two months of the quarter was up just 0.2%, the weakest performance for the first two months of a quarter since second quarter of 2000.

There will be other dismal economic news in the week to come with the Case-Shiller home-price index likely to show a continuing decline in home values and both consumer confidence index reports -- the Conference Board and the University of Michigan survey -- expected to be down from September.

Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the New York Association for Business Economics. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.