The worst kept secret in economic circles in Washington is that Larry Summers, President Barack Obama’s chief economic guru, covets Ben Bernanke’s job.

But concerns over Summers’ temperament and how financial markets would react to a new Fed chief, as well as positive feedback about Bernanke’s performance during the credit crisis, suggest Summers would be smart to keep his day job.

It seems likely, though far from guaranteed, that Obama will ask Bernanke to serve another four years as chairman of the Federal Reserve, giving Bernanke a chance to plan an exit strategy following one of the largest financial interventions in U.S. history.

“I think Mr. Bernanke has done an outstanding job. He has moved the Fed very aggressively in extreme circumstances,” said L. Douglas Lee, president of consulting firm Economics From Washington. “I don’t think you replace the chairman of the Fed just because somebody else would like the job.”

To be sure, Bernanke, who was appointed by President George W. Bush, hasn’t emerged from the crisis unscathed. He’s been criticized by some for abandoning free-market principles and by inflation hawks who say he has ignored his mandate to control prices. 

In fact, Bernanke is on the hot seat Thursday for his role in allegedly bullying Bank of America (BAC) into buying Merrill Lynch, with one lawmaker accusing the Fed chief of covering up his role. The outcome of that controversy could provide Obama the ammunition to ditch Bernanke if the president is looking for it.

But even Bernanke’s critics admit Obama would be hard-pressed to find a more qualified person to lead the nation’s monetary system at such a difficult time.

“When we look back on this period, we will start to see some of the mistakes he made that we don’t even recognize now. But a lot of that is Monday morning quarterbacking,” said J.D. Foster, senior fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation and a former Treasury official.

Exit Strategy

Even though the darkest days of the credit crisis have seemingly passed and the economy has shown signs of recovery, Bernanke’s job is hardly done. He must now decide when to unveil and implement an exit strategy to avoid a crippling spike in inflation.

The inflation question may play into Bernanke’s hands as most economists say it probably won’t be an issue for another six months to two years, long after Obama announces his decision for Fed chief, which could come in the fall. Bernanke’s term expires in January.

Obama himself was forced to address the speculation on Tuesday, telling reporters: “I’m not going to make any news about Ben Bernanke although I think he’s done a fine job under very difficult circumstances.”

Obama will need to consider how the financial markets would react to replacing Bernanke as there is often a getting-to-know-you period at the outset of a new chairmanship.

“I think it’s absolutely crazy to think about not reappointing Ben Bernanke. He’s done a phenomenal job throughout this crisis. If you really want to shake up the markets, it would be to change the Fed chairman during the middle of the crisis,” Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones, told FOX Business.

David Jones, president of DMJ Advisors and a former Fed economist, said, “Given the circumstances of trying to dig out of this credit crisis, it’s unusual for a president to change horses in the middle of the stream.”

‘Smartest Guy in the Room’

If Obama did change horses, it’s widely expected he’d tap Summers, the director of the National Economic Council. Prior to joining the Obama team, Summers served as president of Harvard University and Treasury secretary in the Clinton Administration.

While Summers is almost universally described as a brilliant economic brain, his temperament has been questioned.

 “He’s the smartest person in the room who unfortunately tells you that when he meets you,” said Jones.

According to The New York Times, Summers has clashed with members of the Obama economic team, including Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Other accounts have revealed tensions between Summers and former Fed chief Paul Volcker.

“He doesn’t play well with other children,” said Foster. “The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board is not a dictator. If you’re a guy whose basic modus operandi is to smack down your colleagues, that’s not going to fly at the Fed.”

Then again, Summers’s stock could rise if the economy collapses further, putting pressure on the new president to shake things up. 

“It would be easy to make Bernanke a scapegoat,” said Jeffrey Miron, senior fellow at Cato and an economics professor at Harvard.

Of course, Bernanke himself could shock everyone and say he doesn’t want the job, but that seems unlikely.

“I have an inkling from my sources that he would welcome a second term,” said Jones, who has met with Bernanke.

Dark Horse Candidates

If Obama ruled out Bernanke and Summers, the field becomes considerably more opaque, though a few names stand out as possible candidates.

Former insiders point to Janet Yellen, the president of the San Francisco Fed, as well as to ex-Fed vice chairman Alan Blinder and Donald Kohn, Bernanke’s No. 2. Obama could also look elsewhere on his NEC to Christina Romer or even Geithner.

See our Ben Bernanke page for the latest videos and stories on the Fed chief.

Obama could also turn to an academic, such as Ben Friedman at Harvard or Berkeley professors Brad DeLong and David Romer, Christina Romer’s husband.

No matter who Obama taps, most people expect the president to leave politics out of the decision.

“I don’t think this is a position where the politics play that big of a role. Most presidents feel they want the right person for the job because if the economy is doing well, then their agenda will do well,” said Miron.