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Deluge of Data; Bright Spot in Pending Home Sales

 
By Adam Samson
FOXBusiness
     

    Despite its market-moving power, the monthly jobless report wasn’t the only economic indicator released Friday.  Indeed, the four reports released today illuminate the condition of various important sectors of the economy.   

    The jobless report, issued by the Labor Department, is considered by many economists and market participants to be one of the most important economic metrics. It provides a very full view of the state of the labor market, which is a pivotal driver of economic growth. 

    According to the report, employers shed some 240,000 in October, which pushed the unemployment rate up 0.4% to 6.5% -- the highest level since 1994.

    The unemployment rate isn’t always a good gauge of unemployment since it considers only people actively seeking work, so it’s useful to look at it in conjunction with the labor-force participation rate, which inched higher by 0.1% in October.  That could be good news because it means, on the aggregate, people are continuing to search for jobs, and not completely dropping out of the labor force.  Still, the labor market remains weak, and is expected to continue weakening.

    “The October employment report was uniformly grim,” JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli wrote in a research note.

    “The employment data point to dramatic weakening as [the third quarter] ended and [the fourth quarter] began, with the momentum still downward,” according to a UBS research note.

    Pending home sales, which are tracked by the National Association of Realtors, is considered a proxy for future home-sale activity.  A sale is pending when the contract is signed, but the deal hasn’t actually closed, so the indicator leads the existing home-sales statistic by a couple of months.  For September, the index hit 89.2, which represents a 4.3% decline from the August, but a 1.4% increase from September last year.

    Overall, the pending home sales index for September was lackluster, but economists feared the number could have been far worse.

    "This report could have been a great deal worse,” wrote High Frequency Economics Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson.

    The report also shows the supply of homes declined slightly in September.  Decline in the supply of homes can be a positive indicator, since having fewer homes on the market can help support house prices, or at least keep them from falling. 

    The monthly consumer credit report derived by the Federal Reserve provides an interesting view of borrowing on the household level.  The report, however, does not track mortgage, and other real estate debt. In total, consumer credit increased by $6.9 billion to $2.588 trillion in September. 

    Most of the increase was led by growth in so-called non-revolving credit, which is essentially made up of auto-loans.  Revolving credit, which is mostly made up of credit card borrowing, was also up. 

    “The data suggest consumers remain under pressure from a slowing economy,” said FOX Business Senior Economist Mark Lieberman.

    Perhaps more interestingly, the report shows dramatic tightening of lending standards in the auto-financing industry.  Consumers, on average, paid an interest rate of 6.24% on new car loans, compared with 5.11% in August, and 3.28% in July.  The size of the loans, on average, also decreased somewhat. 

    Wholesale trade data released by the Commerce Department, are seen as a proxy for spending and manufacturing activity.  Specifically, economists point to the wholesale inventory data, which were up 9.7% from September last year, as a sign that spending could be slowing.  On the other hand, the inventory-to-sales ratio, which suggests the amount of time it takes to deplete inventory, was unchanged from September last year.