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Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Consumer Confidence Hits All-Time Low
Donna Fuscaldo
FOXBusiness
Despite expectations that consumer confidence is improving, confidence fell to a new low in December.
The Conference Board, a New York research firm, said consumer confidence for December was 38.0, compared with a revised reading of 44.7 in November. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected consumer confidence to come in at 45.8 in December. The index is close to levels seen in the months following the 1990-1991 recession.
“The further erosion of the Consumer Confidence Index reflects the rapid and steep deterioration of economic conditions that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2008,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, in a press release. “Declines in the Expectations Index appear to be moderating, but this index continues to hover at historical lows.”
Consumer expectations for the economy in the next six months also decreased in December to 43.8 from 46.2 in November.
“The overall economic outlook remains quite dismal for the first half of 2009, and only a modest recovery is expected in the second half, " said Franco.
In December, those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 46% from 40.6%, while those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 7.7% from 10.1% in November. Consumers' assessment of the labor market was also more negative than in November. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 42% from 37.1% in November, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 6.2% percent from 8.7%.
Mounting layoffs in an already uncertain job market have continued to be at the forefront of consumers worries in recent months. In November, employers eliminated 533,000 jobs -- the most in 34 years -- according to data issued by the Labor Department earlier this month.
“What was particularly weak was the labor market sub component,” said Douglas Smith, chief economist for the Americas at Standard Chartered Bank. “Jobs are what’s weighing on everybody’s minds.”
Smith said people are worried about their jobs and their retirement portfolios, which is weakening confidence even with gas prices seeing a precipitous drop. “Gas prices usually boost confidence. This time around it simply shows how bad things must be.”
Smith said it hard to say if confidence will strengthen in the New Year, saying it depends on what happens on the job front.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. Despite the results of the survey the Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently trading up 25.01 to 8508.94.
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FOX Translator
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Each Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST, the government tells us about how many people went through one of the most unpleasant experiences of their lives: filing for unemployment help for the first time. It's essentially a survey, since state unemployment is managed by your state, not the federal government.
The report runs like clockwork, but it¿s notoriously inaccurate. For one thing, the number often has wide swings from week to week, so it's a rare event for the figures to come in exactly as economists predict. Second, it is very seasonal. Folks like school bus drivers often file claims when summer comes around, and other people get retail jobs as the holidays approach. Some economists like to use it to handicap the big monthly employment situation report, but they often do so at their statistical peril
Sometimes, weekly jobless claims make political, rather than economic, noise. If there¿s a big spike in claims, some politicians will often cite the number as a sign the economic sky is falling. But, it's important to remember what the weekly jobless numbers don't tell you: you don't know how long these folks stay unemployed, how long they've been out of work in the first place, or even if they're truly out of work and not just trying to scam the government.
Because it's so unreliable, economists usually put the past four weeks together and look at a moving average. That gives a little better picture of the overall trend, but it's still not a great indicator.






