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Thursday, September 18, 2008
Gold Continues Stunning Run; Oil Flirts With $100
By Joanna Ossinger
FOXBusiness

Commodities markets continued to feel the effects of financial-market turmoil on Thursday, as gold continued its climb after yesterday’s historic jump and oil once again briefly topped $100 a barrel.
Gold on the most-active December contract rose $46.50 to $897, surging for a second day as buyers jumped into the metal as a safe haven. Its intraday high was above $925.
“Gold had plenty of fundamental reasons to move higher, including the current-account deficit, bit of a rally in crude, and of course you had the freeze-up in bank funds between banks,” said George Gero, vice president of global futures at RBC Capital Markets. “Also, the concentrated effort of central banks putting money into the system is viewed by gold people as somewhat inflationary, and that underpinned the support for gold.”
“When people fear, they turn to gold,” Gero observed. “You had a lot of quick investment demand, as opposed to longer-term demand.”
However, in after-hours trading the gains withered as equities made a huge run higher.
Oil settled 72 cents higher at $97.88 a barrel on the Nymex, though it had flip-flopped throughout the day. Crude had been over $100 at times during the morning, but had also spent a fair bit of time in the red.
“Yesterday after the rebound, we perhaps brought a little more confidence into the oil markets,” said Tom Bentz, director and senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures. “Crude, like gold, is being viewed as a safe place to put your money.”
He noted that crude had been oversold in recent days, and that there could be some support around the $98.50 to $99 level.
“If it can hold on here, it wouldn’t surprise me if it makes a run up to $105,” Bentz said. “The question is whether we put in a near-term bottom yesterday. If crude can get back over $110 or $112, I’d be convinced of it.”
In addition, Ashraf Laidi, chief FX strategist at CMC Markets U.S., noted that the rebounding gold/oil ratio had “ominous implications” which are being borne out in the markets now.
He said that it hit a record low of 5.8 in July as oil soared, while the 37-year monthly average is 13.0. “Each time the gold/oil ratio had bottomed” since 1972, he wrote in an email, “a rebound was accompanied with a U.S. recession, Fed easing and dollar weakness.”
Gero observed that platinum and palladium were coming off their recent lows because the recent declines in the price of oil "may help the auto industry,” which is a big buyer of those metals.






