Missed tonight's Cavuto? Catch "The Deal" right here on FOXBusiness.com

It's a trickle.

Hardly a tale.

But it's telling.

Ahead of his big convention, a big question for Barack Obama.

Why aren't you doing better?

The latest polls show the race a statistical dead heat.

A Fox News survey has Obama and John McCain little more than three points apart.

Virtually even in a Wall Street journal survey.

Ditto a CBS News/New York Times snapshot.

The upshot?

Something big is going on here.

I'm not saying it has nothing to do with some Obama missteps.

And some McCain lucky breaks.

I've reported a lot on both before.

But what if what's going on here is bigger?

What if the shift in opinions on candidates has more to do with shift in opinions...on us?

And how we're doing?

And how we're feeling?

What if what's going on here is so deceptive because it is simply so obvious?

What if...what if...things aren't perceived nearly so badly?

What if people are becoming more upbeat? About their own fortunes? Maybe even the country's fortunes?

What if...and i know, it's a big if...They're not nearly as dour as some consumer confidence surveys have reported?

What if, as a key survey language expert put it to me on this very show, the wrong questions are being asked, and the wrong answers are being gleaned?

That while most Americans have a decidedly dim view of the country's direction, they are much more upbeat about their own direction.

When asked how their neighbors are doing, most say...not well.

When asked how "they" are doing, most say...not bad.

I know, it's subtle. But nothing subtle about these polls that should show a Democratic blowout, but don't.

After all, the economy's awful, right?

Maybe not.

Maybe with gas prices coming down, retail layoffs slowing down, and the number of unsold homes inching down...something's up.

And Americans intuitively sense it, without even saying it...perhaps because pollsters never bother asking them it.