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Friday, November 27, 2009
Dubai May Drive Emerging Markets Underperformance
By Simon Kennedy
MarketWatch Pulse
LONDON -- Analysts at HSBC said Friday that the cheapening of Dubai sovereign debt already appears excessive, but that the events in Dubai could still prove to be the catalyst for more general emerging-markets underperformance. The broker said selling protection in five-years Dubai credit default swaps after Thursday's sharp rise in the cost of default protection is likely to be a profitable trade for those prepared to look through near-term volatility. Investors seeking opportunities to position for a widening of emerging market spreads should look at other opportunities it added. The broker said that for bond investors the Russian bank and corporate markets have become more crowded, as have high-yielding local currency markets such as Brazil, Indonesia, Hungary and Poland. Also in Turkey, five-years CDS prices are around 1.5 percentage points below where they should be, HSBC said.
Copyright © 2009 MarketWatch, Inc.
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