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Published: Fri, 6 Nov 2009
Description: Strategas Research's Dan Clifton on when a vote on health-care legislation can be expected.
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
" Our President Obama heading to Capitol Hill tomorrow for some last minute lobbying on health care overhaul ahead of the house vote which could end up being delayed. Dan Clifton is here had a policy research -- continued its research in Washington he is. All knowing Dan do we first do we even get a vote in the house tomorrow."
" Well it's looking less and less likely as the day goes on up from my understanding or about ten votes short of the required 218 votes to pass this bill. That means they -- that there's fifty Democrats that don't want to vote for this bill. The full court press is on the telephone calls are being made the pop promises are being made to remembers. But very they haven't heard that they have been successful -- in the skies over the finish line today."
" Is it really the thing that certainly -- elections on Tuesday with New Jersey and Virginia and independent swinging wildly away from those in power that's right that you throw in at ten point two unemployment rate and have people faint -- just IC in the democratic."
" Yeah well we think that that is it good part of what's happening today we've had too hard data points this week. First the elections on Tuesday. You're talking about have Republican winning in New Jersey by a 100000 votes when he started out with 700000. More Democrats than Republicans in that state. And then set it how can we spend a trillion and a half dollars on healthcare entitlement when the unemployment rate is going up to ten point 2%. These are major changes in the political spectrum it's making -- it was a job that unchartered today."
" You -- trillion and a half dollar on healthcare entitlement but. Let's talk about the 700 plus billion. In tax hikes but is included in that. To pay -- how can any congressman at this point justify tax hikes of that magnitude an economy that is still struggling. Will."
" That's absolutely right -- I mean the main part of the -- the taxes in this bill is a tax increase on small businesses and high income earners small businesses -- the engine of job creation so we're talking about trying to limit the unemployment rate from going higher. Yeah we're going to tax the people who are creating the jobs. Second a lot of these home state industry but that medical device makers are managed care companies are saying hey we're going to layoff of these tax increases go through. And I think that's starting to affect the members equation on whether they can vote for this bill are not -- you see in the same thing happening over in the Senate. Well that's right -- in the Senate has always been much more moderate but at the same time you know the pressure even greater because they represented states. If you look at a state like Minnesota they have medical device makers the Mayo clinic UnitedHealth you look at Massachusetts -- that a device makers those senators support the ideals of our health care reform but at the same time are having trouble coming up will waste -- paid for without their employees getting laid off."
" But what is the thinking -- of the democratic leadership that they are still going to try and push. This lead agenda items through even an economy where every. All the voters are saying focus on the -- even Leo -- this morning a major democratic contributor saying. They're they're focuses misplaced."
" Well they I think that's absolutely correct and in our clients have been calling us saying how can they do this giving everything that's going on. But it does think that you -- know where the leadership is coming from. Speaker Pelosi believes that the house will be rewarded for governing. I do believe that -- people the White House to believe that and the goal is to get their health care bill over the finish line they think they'll be rewarded. I just think that there -- item in my personal opinion that that's not true but that's whether guiding from and that's why they're trying so hard to pull this over the -- site. They let me make one more point if they don't get this during this weekend. I think it's going to be much much harder for them to do as the weeks go on operative who -- members got to go home for the holidays and start hearing from constituents. Who are very concerned about what this health care bill means wolf will be said tonight -- in the morning to push these Democrats to vote for it. Well the first thing I would say is that there's real hardball politics going on. You have the education secretary calling members of congress seeing if they need education aid in their home districts. You have fund raising that's going to -- promises of fundraising. But it also works the other way those that the carrots to sticks are. We'll take you up this committee chair you're not with us at the end of the -- So it's really hard -- politics there are some promises of additional played in fundraising. I just don't know that's enough because members realize their districts aren't for the size health care package. Day and get some sleep and we'll be calling -- acting Clinton will be around -- and say I know you well."
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