Jobs Market Near Bottom?

" Wall Street firms are revising their estimates up for today's jobs data and they ended way off anyway so are we nearing the bottom of the jobs market. Here's what the president said earlier. First came into office army's goal was to stop the freefall that caused our economy to shrink at an alarming right. We've succeeded in achieving that goal is our economy grew last quarter for the first time in the year. But history tells us the job growth always lags behind economic -- Which is why we have to continue to pursue measures that will create. New jobs let's get some analysis now from -- occupy and he is managing director of economics at economic cycle research and to do institute and bill Driscoll. He is New England district president at staffing firm Robert hall international -- has come as a surprise to you."

" Well not really I mean that the unemployment rate has been. -- high -- and it's a lagging indicators show you know ten point 2% is. Is a little bit more than the consensus estimates that you know 190000 jobs lost versus 175000."

" watch when you do think that we are in the beginning of what could be a dramatic turnaround from your perspective it's so when did the jobs numbers catch up. With the economic turnaround right well we'll look based on you get these leading indicators to forecast to look forward and using those we forecast that the recession. Would end the recovery by the way -- in this -- this summer let me stop you there -- how much of a lag is this. Unemployment figure how much of a lagging indicator as it is -- four weeks ago was -- 02 months ago no this this number is looking back about a month about a month and it is at when we talk about it as a lagging indicator on the business cycle we need something slightly different. Okay the recovery begins sometime this summer when all the academics get together and had to say when did the recession and they're going to tell you a year from now it ended a couple months ago okay now when there's unemployment rate go down. Probably. Sometime next year. Before the unemployment rate begins to fall and it's probably going to -- up from here. You need to see positive jobs growth so the 19. 1020300. Positive. Before you'll see the unemployment rate itself begin to fall another thing to remember is that. -- art did the demographics of people in in in America right there's hundreds of millions of people. We're growing or adding new people to this country. A 125000. On average are entering the workforce just by virtue of growth in in in in the population. Every single month so if you wanted the ten point two to stay at ten point two next month. On average have to -- a 125000 jobs to keep it steady well billion although the strange thing is is that despite this ten point 2% unemployment rate. Our productivity went up almost 10%. In the month of October that is we are producing more with far fewer people. Is that -- discouraging indicator that we may be inferred jobless. A jobless recovery in 2010."

" Well not necessarily mean I think it's encouraging his productivity -- go up before company start hiring. Additionally the other bright spot if you're looking for bright spots in this report. Would be good temporary jobs grew. By the highest total in two years why except on the temporary. Well temporary hiring is a leading indicator. Companies tend to eggs contemporaries first and hire them back first. Before they before they make the full investment to. Make a -- watch when you agree."

" I I agree without a 100% in in on the productivity afflicted add on to that. I think about it can you become 10% more productive every quarter going forward absolutely -- I think it would be pretty darn sure you're pretty hard right so I mean and in your employer might like it if you could I don't think physically we can't what that what's happened is. You fired. 7000008. Million people during this recession. And were produced were starting to produce more and more of the economy grew by three and a half percent last quarter is gonna grow by 4% or more in the quarters in front of us. How are you going to do that the master -- all the -- squeeze it out now look the same way investors are climbing a wall of worry. In the stock market right they've been doing that all year. Employers are climbing the same wall of worry and they're happening. To produce more with less people because they're so scared in the first place they go to reconcile those two things that must be reconciled this temporary workers such -- watchman -- on and bill Driscoll thank you both general."