Economist: Job Growth by 2010

" This job before let's bring in Tom Higgins is the chief economist overpaid Rangel and Brit -- my -- President of career builder dot com North America and Tom. Nicole made a comment about the fact that warm we hear all the time. About the fact that jobs are lagging indicator. I'm not so sure when they're going down like the word of the the unemployment going up and number jobs going doubt whether it's not a Lee. In indicators still what do you take com."

" Why do you still think the unemployment rate itself in the lagging indicator -- what I would say is that. There was this this figure was clearly disappointed today that ten point 2% rise from nine point 8%. Clearly a disappointment. However the payroll growth which is the actual jobs created in the employment report we've we've seen that the rate of job losses slowed. We went from about 500000 jobs or lose in the first half of the year down to is somewhere south of 200000 at this point. And hopefully gradually with the GDP numbers coming in better than expected. We'll start to -- job growth by early next year and then start to bring down the unemployment rate. By the middle of next year as you start generating enough jobs about to absorb all the new entrants into the work force."

" So Brent -- you know this debate again about the big productivity numbers yesterday. Is this something where people have figured out how to do business with fewer employees because some of these jobs that have been lost. Are temporary and some of them are permanent you know which is which."

" Well yeah I agree with that companies have done a very good job of the last 33 quarters. On the bottom line in the audience. Start working in the top line the good news that I saw the last few months especially on our site was that temporary labor in the number of those opportunities are increasing. Which is a good sign it just means that. Employers are cautious they want to make sure that cannot go through another layoffs -- the -- temporary workers then hopefully as you're. Other guests mentioned that mid 2010 we start seeing some full time employment marketplace."

" You know quick question for Tom actually I was going to ask you about the average workweek was still at thirty hours. The expectations from economists was that I was going to tick slightly higher. But it didn't and I know a lot of economists is that that they would like to see that number gradually start to come up. I mean it is overall that are really weak sign."

" It is the disappointment and that is the leading indicator of future employment first you increased hours and and you hire new employees. To counterbalance that we did see some pick up and temporary help service hiring. It road somewhere around 44000 over the last three months. And that is a positive sign that got workers and that test I mean employers tend to test the waters with temporary workers. Before bringing job full time employees so that the positive offsetting that negative a little bit."

" So we're looking at the secular breakdown is obviously the BCC government health care. Construction still losing jobs is they're going to be some type of signal that we see in the coming months but they construction start picking up first that's going to be some type of leading indicator that tell us that we are going to start hiring soon -- I keep hearing 30 but it seems as if I heard. -- of 2009 if you want them to keep pushing them back there actually -- a number something that tells me that we got their hiring again."

" Well I in my opinion I think your party scene and that temporary help services but what we're waiting to see is you do want to see broader based job growth right now. The diffusion index which measures the number of industries hiring there's 271 industries India employment survey and about 30% about 13. Are hiring right now we want to really see that uptick to about 50% before we become more confident that we're generating enough job. To really improve the labor market in a meaningful way and bring down the unemployment rate. "

" So Peter -- of it -- I'm Christina Romer you know was the one who's come on the program -- number of times and said the model was originally about 8% unemployment was what they're we're guessing whenever I'm designing the stimulus bill. So their way past that the pace she got a new update for us and when did they think they're going to see jobs growing rather than shrinking."

" They're being cautious about it they're sticking where there -- estimate that the stimulus package will by the end of next year save or create three and a half million jobs of course as we've discussed at length hair. Real hard to prove all of that right now they're saying that that so far with the spending so far about a third of the stimulus. Out the door that's helped to save or create a million jobs. We could see them try to revise those numbers here but so far there's chicken with a all right Peter Barnes thank you very much and a Briton -- stay with it."