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Published: Thu, 5 Nov 2009
Description: NPD Group Chief Retail Analyst Marshal Cohen on weak sales at teen retailers.
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" Team retailers feeling some angst last month other retailers however -- in a better -- now the question is how well the shopping season. Turnout will it be a jolly one here to answer. Marshal Cohen chief retail analyst with NPD group and author of upcoming book behind me how to get him. Customers to choose your products and ignore the rest. Mark -- looked a little bit weak at Abercrombie. & Fitch. Notwithstanding air post now was weak particularly American eagle was weak and airport saw particular one that's been strongly happen -- what's happened."
" his were beginning to see that the consumers really shifting in what they're buying. And win so for example we would always expect back to school in June July and August this year back to school. Only -- part of it happened early on and we got a lot of back to school in the latter part of October. So the positive numbers we saw Warren is because we wanted to see because we didn't have any of the beginning of October. The cash for clunkers program took a lot of money out of the discretionary spending from the consumer. The unemployment rate among teenagers 22% yes very high and and what I would -- we see same store sales dropped 22% well what everybody thinking they're similar spending trends you ain't got a job. Let's mom and -- are going to -- and -- and then call -- out exactly what's happening -- you hit the nail on the head and really what's happened is you know back to school is about mom and dad shopping the rest of the -- is about -- shopping for themselves. Without a job they're not buying a lot of that extra discretionary items so which is why the higher and teenage businesses are the ones that are still feeling the pain the most. The other thing to watch is. We you know we certainly saw the shift in mom not shopping for the last year remember this is now since October last year. When the consumer recession started the consumer didn't stop spending -- October we're now beginning to anniversary that -- Mom is starting to sit there and say it's -- it's my time now she's gone for over a year without really updating our wardrobe. So start to look for some of the women's market to start to shift which is why you're seeing the department store business Nordstrom start to get a little bit better Nordstrom six and a half percent gain Saks actually posted a little bit of the game right that is that beginning things com during holiday absolutely which are beginning to see is the consumer what we've talked about -- fatigue because it was getting really tired of being frugal there's a lot of pent up demand. Moms are actually going and women as a whole are going into their closets and shopping their closets I call it. When they're going in looking at what they have that they either had never -- which they'll never admit. -- are they're looking at what they have that they haven't want to while they can now go out and -- a few items to update so look at online is being an important part of the equation here. And the -- department -- starting to gain some momentum. -- trends continuing to fall in wonder how many large scale retail bankruptcies may still be in the system. You know really what we're going to see are more store door closures you know -- as we come out of holiday going into January and February. Don't be surprised this is the next big shoe to drop its going to make a big thought. But it's really not as treacherous as we would normally think it would be. The stores are going to assess each individual location say they're not making a profit we're going to shut down. But it doesn't mean they're going to go out of business and you don't dont you know I never rule out bankruptcies because it really is such a great way for the businesses to be able to go through Clinton's. We look forward talking to you many times during holiday Christmas mistress -- is -- Christmas this year yes they're making Marshal mark has won and paid."
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