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Published: Tue, 3 Nov 2009
Description: Kanaly Trust's Andrew Kanaly weighs in on the economy and dollar.
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
" 3% -- October 19 -- 10092 my next guest says. That's his highest -- go this year and investors should reevaluate stocks drew canal is chairman and CEO of -- trust could see drew. Good to be your lucky -- think we've seen our best days -- this year what does that mean for next year."
" Well a couple things going on I mean for for next year we we may see a pretty good economy because we're probably to see a lot of it cannot economic activity. Moved into that here because a lot of favorable tax credits expire in 2011. So inmates he'll pop and -- maybe the market reacts to it. But it looks down the road 2011. It's really not going to have a whole lot of visibility the other thing that's going on right now but it Fox Business viewers should probably be. Paying very close attention to is little dollar carry trade that's going on in some quarters it -- As a possible bubble until what's going on your shorting the dollar in your turn around borrowing money and buying. Risky assets and so you see that -- risky asset move. Here in the media this year the last 69 months and so if you watch this dollar market reaction the dollars up today the futures are down. If this continues to unfold. You could see the shorts have to be covered on the dollar. The risky assets gets sold and it could get to -- pretty messy market if if this relationship falls apart so -- the Dallas you."
" Used as a -- he you know -- even safe harbor. Indefinite right now I think it's down over 40% over the past decade which is according ugly and it's been getting pretty hammered over the past year. Are you suggesting that. We've seen the worst and the US dollar and that we might stay -- to see some recovery and that of course could impact the export import conversation."
" Right it near term were actually concerned about that so we've actually can only been hedging or bad we've been buying gold -- her -- and lately we've been buying the dollar hedge that gold relationship because. The gold was purchased taken aliens inflation way. Inflation is out of the question near term. And so we've watched this dollar relationship and we feel like the dollar just moved too much. Too fast so that that's that's what we're doing with with -- Arnold disbursed small bats but it's a position in our portfolios."
" What do you look at right now that suggests hey look at the stock pickers market you gotta pick the right means within their larger small cap what should I be looking at. To know hey this is a smart long term investment."
" Well I you know it's it's."
" Intriguing what what mr. Buffett's doing it if you look at the that buying Burlington northern mean that's a long term circle cold slash transportation play right he's looking at the cost of energy. Perhaps -- was we'll have a competitive advantage of moving things. On the flip side of that that they move a lot of coal and of Cole sees a lot of competition for natural gas which is a very green fuel. Then maybe his bad is gonna be moderated some but still it's a long term circle over turn. Based upon a weaker dollar so he's betting on a weaker dollar to longer term and I say. Way out there if for can really were concerned about the dollar to the mounting government debt. Does not bode well for the dollar but this this carry trades can run to a head when here if the Fed signals that they are going to have to start raising rates. All right you can only chairman CEO -- trust great Kenya trip thank you --"
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