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Published: Wed, 28 Oct 2009
Description: FTN Equity Capital's Tony Dwyer argues we are in a V-shaped recovery.
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
" Gas is expecting a very near term correction somewhere in the three to 5% -- she says now is the time for investors to partake. An attack healthcare and energy sectors and Tony Dwyer equity strategist at FDA and equity capital good to see Tony and Alexis power it. So I don't even argue for three to 5% correction I wonder what's starting to see that over the past week or so what are we collect back to you and and why."
" near term to target was just tactical meaning tactical on nature's back to the fifty day moving average back to the -- front line that the about 10:50 am ESP. So -- 1213 and 63 so it's not that far away so in other words any any further weakness we use this opportunity."
" You have suggested though that he waived this recession occurred and how quickly demand it was cut that this could actually be would be shaped recovery. Does that mean -- 2010 could be a lot better than 2009."
" It should be you know it's interesting Alexis were were closer to 10%. Your -- Funnier for that. The average the average up here for the -- study 18% the average out your CBS and he's about sixteen point six. So we're not so far off the average returns for the markets and -- given up year what we're just kind of experiencing uses vicious decline that we had that was based on. What came down close to a global depression. And in -- recovery from that should be equal and equivalent to it so you know again we're actually just be specific looking kind of for capital in not just today."
" Okay so we will talk about that recovery cream really focused on. And the equity market recovery and equity market returns -- is no real economic recovery 'cause the jobless situation is still abysmal."
" It typically is -- and interestingly we found a chart from our friends at Ned Davis it shows that the small business hiring plans when that turns that tends to lead. The unemployment rate that is already turned in other words they're they're hiring plans. Of not expecting to -- starting to drop which indicates that the unemployment rate over the course next few months should begin to drop and that would be normal. What -- people most people in the business most people that report the business myself included. You know are not old enough to -- through the 7374. Recession that was a dramatic decline in jobs manufacturing and the services sector. The most recent two recessions were pretty tame by historical standards so let's look at it this way unless you expect us to stay in a in a recession which would. He categorically depression. The average recoveries five years -- you expect economic recovery whether it's -- our aggressive in the first year. If you expect an economic recovery for the next five years. Then you have to not just nature. Equity investment off of the current earnings or even 2010 you have to make the assumption by definition. That 1112 and thirteen are going to be up years so again whether the market cracks few percent here -- there I continue to believe that -- the beginning of an economic recovery. Which should translate positive earnings gains and it candidate that's what ST -- price correlates to acquire rights to the direction of burns -- excellent point. -- could see somebody informally bullish here Tony Dwyer continued thanks so much."
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