Shiller on Home Prices

" We'll have housing prices hit bottom low home prices rose about 1% in August jumping for the fourth straight month according to the just released Case Shiller home price index during -- in. First on Fox Business interview -- Robert Shiller professor of economics at Yale the man whose name is on the index. And professor. When you take a look at this you've got four months in a row in that your indexes designed about repeat home sales. Do you say then that the housing market has hit bottom and has started to recover."

" That's an interesting question I might add that it's not only that it's. For four consecutive month it's also across practically all the major US cities. So it's it's it's very broad. Is it hasn't hit bottom it sure looks like a recovery. You know it it didn't seem. Likely given past performance -- of home price indices are given the state of the economy. But. And so I really think that it. Probably isn't a major vote but -- every day and stand that thing. It looks like it. I've I've been out and decisive stage right now where it's going."

" I'm Robert I'm sure you get that question. To you every single day what I Canada saying in this particular. Month with you have a month over month jump of one point 3% but how much of that. Of the values that increase were at work at the direct result of the first time home buyer tax credit. Which is. Could be up to 8000 dollars -- mean about a bad guys I would think that it would be kind of a false. Positive in a way."

" By goes beyond the home first time home buyer tax credits all the support. We've been giving their housing including you know that the Fed some part of that Fannie and Freddie securities. So it's the government is really in this market. And the public is encouraged by that you know you that senate -- a very important point that's why I really don't know where it's -- act. I think the government is not going to support like this indefinitely. But the mouth going."

" Game but it seems that we're seeing an acceleration though Robert and demand were saying -- demand acceleration in the market but that again could be a false positive not just from the first time. Credit for homebuyers but also because it what you see is kind of psychological event happening in the housing. Folks in the prices start to take up and they think I gotta get then and I got a buyer something before prices going higher and that could be a possibility."

" There is some city in San Francisco and Minneapolis they're up twelve and 13%. Respectively since the bottom. That's lasted just four months this is zipping up -- that I don't know it."

" I hear that confident in your in your comments professor and it's maybe because like you said the market. Today is being manipulated by government forces and things that we haven't seen before. But since you went back and started this during the bubble in the eighties in the Boston housing market. My question for you was there's a lot of people that help bought homes that take 400000. Their work 250000. Today they would like to sell what they're not going to. They don't want to take the loss so was that's fuel -- The -- peak sales numbers that are so important figure index."

" But I kind of factor that's kind of psychological factor -- prices in all markets including the stock market about market everything."

" I think it is definitely a factor but when it comes down to now is people. Yeah they're holding up because they think they might get a better price later and they've heard there's this recovery coming. Thought the real thing you have to understand -- unemployment can go up and we can still have. Rapidly increasing home prices are what take is that people think it's more strongly than I have that prices are going to go up and they'll make it happen."

" Is there any specific region mean if we look at regions like. Las Vegas Phoenix Stockton California now or absolutely decimated. When the -- class is there any of these regions we should all or should we be looking at those regions for the recovery is that where it's gonna get. We'll may be the Bellwether regents for recovery."

" Well so far Vegas is not a -- list Vegas is the only want to write funny major cities. That is still dropping its down 55%. From the -- The worst. -- so I don't know the biggest got very volatile very suddenly a few years ago and it was huge construction activity. It it was like it I don't know it gives them the Mecca and gambling in our country some bad psychology got going there."

" what about mortgage rates we're certainly going to see it a potentially attack happened interest rates coming very soon how do you think that all of that. The value of the of the of the homes they cover. The city's."

" But unless it's a major increase. It seems to me that these speculative impulses dominate that we've seen ups and downs of mortgage rates I use -- in the past to try to forecast. Home prices and never never a strong. Forecasting very well you -- you might think so but I think the psychology dominates and this upward momentum is on everyone's mind now."

" I Robert -- we're going to have to leave it there Roberts Ali thanks top ten -- business we love having you wanna thank you for your."