Bremmer on Foreign Policy, Global Markets

" We'll let me G-20 summit in Scotland next month draws closer how was president Obama's foreign policy agenda shaping up in the global economy. Ian Bremer is the president Eurasia group joins me right good to see -- and good morning -- You have not playing nonstop nothing unusual for mr. Bremer but I just got back from Middle East. Tell me a little bit about what's going on over there looking impressions are of the US."

" Well oppression of the USA have certainly got a lot better you know folks who liked the fact that Obama is engaged. They love the speech that he gave in Cairo when he sort of reached out to you know sort of the Islamic nations. But at the same time among the beliefs the business leaders and the political leaders is an enormous amount of concern to the United States is starting to withdraw. Withdrawing from Iraq when you're in places like Kuwait for example enormous concern about that and also concerns that eventually the running as a going nuclear and the US can't do anything to stop -- so I'd say it's a pretty balanced view you know it's it's very difficult to get the Middle -- right everyone knows that. But but frankly the enormous domestic focus of the Obama administration has not lost on a lot of folks that think eventually US leadership role is really going to be needed."

" Pretty fascinating when Afghanistan is main topic on the agenda at least in the military situation here. What is the impression as to whether or not we make a decision to increase troops or withdraw."

" That's funny you know I -- in the Middle -- I was I was telling people I -- at the beginning of the Obama administration you're told that you're going to have a week. In your first year. Where -- Afghanistan policy has fallen apart. And you're gonna win the Nobel prize I think you have to -- dot out of the Oval Office maybe in the first four years but certainly not the first year of course that's the situation -- They listen to the generals generals haven't on the policy right now Afghanistan they want a lot more than 4050000 troops. They're going to get some I think it's very clear what Obama has done on all of -- policies. What you're talking about health care what you're talking about climate change he he he you know asks. For a great deal at the beginning. Finds out the policy isn't that a working dials it back Guantanamo climate change we can keep on going in the case of Afghanistan's going to be the same thing he's looking to find consensus. He'll find consensus in Washington he'll end up with a pretty significant troop surge I feel very confident that's what's going to happen. I'd be shocked if it's under 20000 new troops. But it will also be you know not fighting on the front lines to be primarily protect the Afghan population. Is going to be tough benchmarks tough deliverables -- timeline. All of which will probably work in Washington but it's not going to war in Afghanistan. And that's the real issue is that increasingly you're gonna have a situation where more of this policy is going to be seen as falling squarely. On the Obama administration shoulders and and it's going to be harder for them to get out as the situation gets more difficult."

" Let's talk about the mother economies and you and I talked a lot about China in particular came -- third quarter GDP yesterday eight point 9%. They had the UK we're not warning coming out UK disappointing very disappointing longest recession now in you case since World War II. Is this going to be -- said this recovery of the haves and the have nots and does it come down. -- trade surplus versus the trade deficit nations as we've heard about."

" Well that the recovery is is going to come all over the world but it's it's going to be a lot lot more anemic in the developed world particularly the United States. I think people ask why the dollar still doing. As reasonably well as it has and part of it is scale and partner is that everything else -- of the developed world right now except for like Australia Canada but Europe. And Japan. Just looking very slow indeed though the real story here is that China has come. First out of this recession they've come very strongly out of recession and so have other emerging markets that back we're now at a point. Where the Chinese Government is going to start taking steps to reduce the hot money coming back into that country. It's it's not on the basis of consumer sentiment China its really on the basis of state stimulus. Building infrastructure. And that's very labor intensive it's also very commodities intense and you'll find that a lot of other emerging markets as well including a lot of places in the gulf. Well I was just traveling. That should make us bullish on commodities all things considered. And it should all so raise some concerns about American corporations that are trying to business part of the world because they increasingly. Have a great deal of competition. With -- on the unequal back unequal up playing field that that's something where are you looking."

" You know I'm not sure we'll have -- opportunity to election to Ben Bernanke earlier but on your last thought I know you when your friend Muriel Roubini wrote an Op Ed. In The Wall Street Journal recently talking a little bit about the role of the Fed. There's some -- suggest. Maybe we need to go back and take a look at the decision to repeal Glass-Steagall in 1999. Before going to clarified balance sheets of these financial institutions maybe we need to separate church and state. Where you stand on that that's something Paul Volcker is pushing for."

" Although there has been and and clearly it's been it's typical argument he has got an awful lot of support for. In congress I suppose on balance I would supported. Bill on non economist. But that the people I talked to that have a great deal of expertise that I really respect tended to its -- that's where they'd want to go the problem is. And that Obama really has very little capacity actually get past right now I or advising Obama directly. I would have really said that I would have done financial reform in a serious way before I touched health care health -- urgent is very important it has to get done and frankly something will get done a look like an Obama victory. -- that that's about the good thing for the American people and but they won't be able get financial reform done they had a shot. Of moving on all of this. When things look dire when there was still a lot of fear. That the entire financial sector could fall apart that the US economy was in freefall but this is technically difficult to understand. Congressman don't think they have natural constituency Ford and now people saying well it's kind of over 2010 we're going to start growing again let's focus on not on getting the economy. People started to -- heating up again and so as a consequence I think that the opportunity for that policy is pretty much gone. Even though I'm in my will be the best thing for the US."

" Yeah I couldn't agree with -- an actual point in grammar present Eurasia group Christine thanks for taking the time. Utility studies have."