Are Polls Impacting Politicians' Decisions?

" Change what politicians did joining us this day and clipped and had a policy research at -- he -- in Washington Dan great to see. Are you already seeing. -- politicians becoming more populist that really. Doing things in terms of legislative initiatives that are even miss guided if you well. Absolutely vegan and and let me just say at a 10% unemployment rate."

" It's going to be very hard to start turning around these politicians numbers. We have very high level. Leadership senators who were polling in the 3540%. Range. That indicates danger zone that is down forcing them to become much more populous. I would say that there's two effects one they're going to continue to keep these stimulus programs don't continue to extend them. But second they're going to do much more regulatory items of quote unquote protecting. Consumers can be overdraft fees that we're seeing right now and other types of financial regulation initiatives. Which actually will tighten credit not approve it so the polls -- impact it will have a much larger effect as we go into 2010 right before the 2010 election."

" But aren't these lawmakers. Tongue death. The cause. People are anti establishment that they see Washington as part of the establishment. So are they doing things like more spending more and more and more role extending home buyer tax credit. When in fact. The American people want something else less spending less government."

" Well that's absolutely right -- and I think you hit the nail right on the head. Most of the politicians right now think that the voters are may have with the bank CEOs and we would agree that they probably are met with the bank CEOs but there are also met with politicians themselves it's almost a vote against the entire establishment. And that's why I think the mood in this country is not so much anti Democrat run congress but its anti politician anti incumbent. And it will be terrible for for elective officials of any party as they go into this 2010 election. Let's look at what is happening in New York City and New Jersey right now they've all that key elections Michael Bloomberg's gonna spend a hundred billion dollars just to get 5354%. Of vote. Jon Corzine will spend thirty million dollars and he's polling at just 40% right now. When you get into the 2010 elections bodies politicians are not going to be able spend money like that. And that's why I think that they're going to get thrown out because they're in this diagnosing exactly what the voters want they want something different and not getting it. Those elections in the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia if you look back at nanny the raid the Republican wins in both those states. And following here -- was a turnover. That's right the day and I think that's a very good point. We've been telling our clients that the New Jersey governor's election is going to be a very good catalyst for the equity market one way or the other. But for example in 1983 -- Christy Whitman beat Jim Florio that was the real indication that something was going on in the electric new Jersey's a very heavily democratic state. Is more democratic today that it was in 1993. Now that rates can go either way I'm not about protected. Did you see the Republicans win in. I've Virginia and New Jersey the story's going to be written that this is going to be I 82010 election it's going to create more gridlock. And that's generally positive for the equity markets. Where they would like to have a democratic president and Republican. Congress just as we did in the 1990. Any industries that are in danger. Right now about that are particularly. Vulnerable with what's going on and they say. Yeah well first I would say the managed care industry is very vulnerable. In terms of health care but true also the credit card industry's. We're seeing a number of proposals right now that would avoid. Risk based pricing. And and and congress is getting very upset about that so I would say the financials and health care industry are both under attack Dan thank you day Clinton promised to take us raise our."