Retail Sales Rise in August

" is Brian Wesbury chief economist at first trust advisors Brian you've been saying that we all going to get a recovery. Right about now on going through the rest of this year yeah. I'm not buying it because I don't think those Mattel sells it is -- very good convince me that you'll rise. Well -- Stewart point 6% in one month is seven point 2%. Over a year. If he had about two and a half percent inflation that means real growth. Is almost 5%. It's I don't I I don't see how you can say. Point 6% -- month is a weak number I just don't agree with that at all okay now that -- percent. If you could pass term leveled the amount of stuff that we consume those boys in August for an amount of stuff we -- oldest of 2007. You don't show 567%. Gain in an area. No no you don't because we had a panic and so what happen is we're going up then we fell. And now we're climbing back up we're still below where we were a year ago. But in the last three and six months were up significantly in fact excluding autos were up 6% at an annual rate in the past half year. That's about a 4% real growth rate which is what we expect in the second half of this year. And into next year we're having a V shape recovery after a panic it takes us awhile to get back it's kind of like if you get hit with the flu. You're going to feel bad for ten to fourteen days. And as -- climbing out you're going to feel better than you do yesterday but still not quite as good as you did ten days ago. Eventually you get back to the level that you were that and that's what the economy's going through that right now. Brian that's a very good analogy I'm not going to try to top it but I am going to bring to your attention something I just read in the in the telegraph a British newspaper. They say look. And the -- of money supply. And bank credit are shrinking. At a rate not seen since the Great Depression the telegraph says that means we've got a double dip recession coming. Which means there on a V shape recovery it's OW we went down. You say we -- and back up and this telegraph these figures suggest we going back down again for W once a year. Yeah Iowa that the telegraph as Addison depression for the last three years so they never thought of becoming in the first place. But but we have to remember that the the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was puffed up artificially they. They borrowed money from the treasury they've borrowed money from banks to buy mortgage backed securities and other things. Now they're letting that money run off in fact. The excess reserves the money they borrowed from banks. Is actually it's slowly going back into the banks. And that's good news we don't really want the Fed to hold these excess reserve we want the banks to. And so in fact I look at this shrinkage of the balance sheet as a positive development not a negative development you can't. If it was an artificial. Pump up of the Fed's balance -- that's why I think that is the telegraph is wrong in this analysis Brian I have to tell our viewers you have been right since the spring of this year and that's why we value presence on the program Cummins is again I hope you ride the rest of the yeah we'll -- And I think you need."