What a Jobless Recovery Means for the U.S.

" First place. I really respect the fact that you could use my own words against me but I do think that -- fundamentally different economy. They do not have a consumer driven economy the way do we do 70% of our economy is based on the consumer and the Consumer Spending. And -- that begins to go down dramatically -- have a huge effect on the economic growth and a slow down. The economy and it will not enhance the economy China has an investment public investment and particularly driven economy to very very different kind of economy. We have a consumer driven economy and if you have a high unemployment and high savings rate. And lower consumption it's going to slow down our economy and until we get jobs coming back into the economy. And that it's going to be the critical question because a lot of people think the unemployment rates going to go up closer to 11% over the next year. It is always you are right that is typically been a lagging indicator. But because the unemployment rate -- so quickly. It is no longer just -- lagging entered indicator it may be a coincidence or even an advance indicator so. It may be something that is now going to slow down the economy and as people look. -- what is happening even corporate America corporate America is doing very well because they have slashed costs. Now what is good for the individual companies not necessarily good for the economy at large as as they slash costs primarily by by cutting. -- workers and cutting wages so you have a situation now. Where they're revenue side going up their revenues are going up very quite nominally. But their profits are going up because they've got their costs under control and their margins -- that's very good for corporate America and for the stock market but not necessarily for the economy."

" Blind before you respond I want to bring Tom into the conversation. Started to honor the yeah territory conversation that you look you can eat the tune of one travels across the country."

" Yes -- do and I -- I didn't comedy clubs are full right now I just got off a cruise ship pros working. Every room was sold. People are they want to get out laugh and I know Bob -- took off during the Great Depression so people might need to laugh. But I think there are jobs right now unfortunately differ repo men and collection agents. And not I frankly am I'm nervous I'm coming this money soon -- that those two. So I don't know. He changed the style of your shows because of what's -- economy -- you talk about it I mean it's the big elephant in the room for everybody wants to talk about it so we don't you know everybody. Is nervous right now when they want to be reassured with some laughter and that's -- we provide levity to what's your funniest line about the economy because let me tell you I'm -- use that there's nothing -- well you're gonna steal my materialism you're filming them or not -- Yeah I I don't understand why the banks and 44 cents every month on a stamp to come and less than that in my account that should mean and -- credit card company to call me every week in coming my balance is outstanding."

" I can't -- you aren't. Very good. Brian -- links to great point though which is am it be television program and I think you would agree even knowing your more bullish. That the pessimism in this country is at a record level because people are still very scant."

" I I've never seen it."

" Like this and it. It it it's really -- had been doing this for thirty years by the way Tom. Yeah they they take economists on cruise ships every once and allowed to another maybe that's not a cruise you want to take but. But I've done I've spoken on those and I travel all over the country and what's interesting is we've just come through a panic that we had literally we have not had a panic in this country. Since 1907. So if anybody tells you. That they know what it looks like it is they have they have they weren't alive during the last one and typically panics have pretty quick endings and my belief is that we're in a V shape recovery I think. What that did the earnings reports that more was talking about they. They do show revenues down for in the but remember that ended in March that was for last quarter. And so we're in this we're in the next quarter in the next quarter now. And I think what you're going to see is revenues picking up hotels are filling up again. Airplanes are filling up again people are buying cars again."

" I'll probably have to wait a second but I entries for four months in a row yet again well I -- I gotta go way yeah on this and allow more to respond to it. I interviewed Gary Kelly Southwest Airlines. Gary -- he's never seen a more challenging environment and he specifically said that -- he believed the worst was ahead when you were looking out. To the fault that they're concerned that they cannot get enough people on a plane so Mort. We headed. Toward a second stimulus package and could that actually be a very dangerous for."

" Well I I do feel that the first stimulus package was. Have really a lost opportunity I mean we shouldn't have a lot more of this spending. In the first six months of -- in the first year but rather than in the second unit which by the way is the way it was sold that was sold that it was all going to happen. Upfront and it didn't work out that way because it was organized by the congress suddenly red and all of their political. Interest and political pet programs and so that only 11% of its going to be spent in the first year which is just a joke. And ridiculous and a real failure on my trip but anyways. We are where we are. I do think and I happen. Written and recommended many times right from the very beginning because I never thought the stimulus program would work that we at least ought to prepared to stand by. Another stimulus program that focuses exclusively on jobs and not on pet programs that the congress wants to put in. To serve their own political constituencies. And that should be organized by the White House not by the congress you don't turn a program like that over to the congress as far as I'm concerned. And that I think. Well I don't know we needed nobody knows for sure. As was said this is an unusual really something that none of us have ever seen. In our adult life with due respect to you understood. And and I think that what we have to do now is at least to prepare for the possibility that it might get -- we do not want to have a second get in this recession. Because that would make it much more much more serious and longer lasting. And we have to protect against that and they only. Only. Institution that can still beholden demand if consumption goes down and investment goes down which it is. It's -- federal government and that this time it's gotta be focused in the right way and provide the jobs at the first one should have."

" Gentlemen great conversation to be continued with the you guys all back together and thank you for adding some levity because that's what we need time time separate these two. Yes exactly."