Economic Recovery By Years' End

" A survey of economic forecaster says the recession will be over by year's end but our next guest insists we're coming out of it already. Joining us now from Chicago Brian Wesbury first heard a biases chief economist Brian it's always fun to have you with us especially today. We review the national association of business economists says is -- that they have downgraded that recovery outlook. You are sticking with -- your rapid recovery and outlook, why are they all wrong right now? Outlook well first Well first of all, I'm member of that and so first survey, did my best to try and keep it up but obviously. Couldn't do that I still believe that we are not intent of this normal recession where you. It's not really colliding into it but where you tend to go down and then bottoming come up I think we and a a V shaped recession the ball fell off the table. And that was a panic of last year and therefore I believe. As a result we can come up about as fast as we went down so I believe that's processes happening process is now. And that only look we will may or and May will be the bottom of this recession. And we're going to have a strong recovery in the second half of the year we've got to be in the stock market is sitting right in front of his -- us right here. Okay well tell me how an forecasts we got this down to we've we've to got less optimistic forecast from the and they beat the right. But I think you on now pretty much in the same camp as the Obama administration. The Obama minutes right next administration is looking for a three point 3.2% growth and 3.2% says unemployment rate in the fall below 8% next year. Now are you in the Obama camp. He you know well I mean that we may disagree a little bit on you know where unemployment will go or what GDP numbers are going to be. But I think we're going to see three to 4% re- growth now. Here's the key though it's not because the government is spending it's not because of government stimulus. It's because the Federal Reserve is printing more money than it ever has I think in its 96 year history. And that means we're floating on a sea of liquidity it's going to make the economy look really good it's almost like Morphine and -- you get to feel good but it's not for real reasons this is just a a boom in the midst of of a pretty difficult time for the economy's so. I know we're probably close on the numbers but we definitely do not have the same way or reason for forecasting those numbers so we could be seeing Dan and 9-10%. Unemployment right. Even though the economy is growing at 3% on the back is the original jobless recovery. Is that we focus -- well, it actually I think the unemployment rates -- it going to head higher here for the next few months but it peak and we're gonna head back down. Toward 8% next year because the economy will be growing rapidly that's not what I meant what I meant was. That my forecast of stronger growth is because the Fed is very easy it's not because the government is spending money. So even though we get to similar numbers the Obama administration and our models. We do it in a different way. Here's another key one of the reasons that we've bottomed in March was we changed mark to market accounting rules. And finally we're seeing the panic that hit last year's subside and we just. Cannot operate at the kind of levels that we were added December January we have to come up. And I think all of that is happening right now we've seen this in the past it happened in 1907. There have been other periods in history but this is a pretty rarer occurrence and that's why I think a lot of the typical models that people have. Are are not agreeing with what we see. -- The optimists the V man on the economy Brian -- we're back from -- we appreciate it thank him."