Recession to END by June?

" Big story now the economic turnaround seems further away at the moment. Our next guest however has said on this program that the recession would be Obama Obama by may or June. Check your calendars -- that's about -- way. Brian west brave brave man and acclaimed economist joins us from first trust advisors now. Let me get it right right I I'm not putting words in your mouth you'd you would on this program. You were saying that -- at every year recession is over that -- V and we heading back up the other side starting in June you know going to take."

" Got back. I I am not going to take that back I I think it. You know the data we have right now shows that initial claims that have started to come down that's a key sign. There's another little sign it if you people. Your question it but. The household survey of employment which is the other surveys not the payroll survey. Actually showed that jobs. Increase in April by about a 120000. New jobs now that captures really small businesses and and an -- and it usually is very good at turning points. I I think we're going to see auto sales and housing pick up the man I think he's going to be pretty good month yet grasping at strolls. That's what everybody thinks but you -- the CBO comes out today and says unemployment will be next few acts and that and a half percent imply worsening employment situation for at least the next here. Battering -- forecast yeah okay that's that that's an independent arm of the government which has been pretty good in the past unlike -- to be more conservative than the real picture it very hard to base an economic recovery on deteriorating employment situation. If you look past and could stored there is the CBO has not been a good forecaster. Say they have. Oftentimes. Miss the budget deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars and and I think the big government in a sense almost has a vested interest. Today in obtaining the economy a little bit negative so that they can say they're stimulus plans helped. But if you go back to January of this year retail sales jumped one point 8% in the first quarter consumer spending was up. It looks when I when I look at auto sales they've bottomed. They have a long way to go or not even selling enough cars right now to replace the stock that goes to scrap the -- every year. Housing we're gonna eventually need one and a half million starts a year just to keep up with population. And starts or less than 500000 and so what I'm saying is is -- all the money that the Federal Reserve is putting in today. Plus the velocity the panic seems -- video review of case but he's very hard to buying a recovery scenario starting in two weeks I mean that. That's a real tough sell we look at the market down a 156 I don't believe you Brian. The markets up 30% from where I was in March I would argue that they do believe me around its little well. Today. They didn't do days ago oil was up this much so that -- we go elected to 19992000. When the unemployment rate was at three point 9%. Every -- dot com could raise money in an IPO. Every number look great on the economy. And yet I was saying at that time we were going to have a recession in 2001. But it was very hard for people to believe that because every number was great we ended up having a recession in 2001. And I think that's the same thing in reverse today people are so used to being negative but. Could have credit spreads are way down the two year swap spread is back to where was in 2007. That's great news that tells me. That the credit markets are beginning to heal in just the last few weeks banks have raised over fifty billion dollars of new capital. The IPO market. It's not a wide open but it's beginning to open those are all good pieces of -- okay. We hear it we do here Brian -- ignoring this I'm die yeah I don't think I'm sorry I -- to do that to you but that that it. It's great to have questions about this we have to always wonder but you know it's kind of amazing to me when. Went went eight. Economy is always time and they always turn at some point and when they do turn it's it's it's always seems like they're doing in the face of negative -- and fat point -- a ton does not imply a V it does not imply expansion true two weeks' time. Fronts like come markets is again because this is an ass I'm Stuart I would love to and you will I would love to prime west I. -- to columnist thanks to washingtonians appreciate it. You now behind."