Economist: Recession Will END in May

" let's dig deeper into today's unemployment numbers -- number eight point 9% of the unemployment rate. 539000. Jobs lost in maple Brian west -- is the chief economist at her first trust advisors and a valued guest on this program Brian welcome back. -- it's great to be with you okay we hear that the trend is not so bad that in fact it's not getting was baffled by the recession is winding down it's almost Obama Watson Bryant Westbrook. Yeah well I I agree with that view of the world. Remember that employment is a lagging indicators fell in fact back in January we saw retail sales pick up. We -- and the housing market kind of bottom in here even durable goods come up a little bit. But employment always takes 345 months after the end of of the downturn before it starts really showing. Real signs of improvement today. Was an ugly number I mean losing 500000 jobs but it's better than it was. And in fact there were signs within the report that things are improving pretty fast OK so if the recession is winding down. Things it it would no longer enough free full spiraling down situation. Does that mean that we start to rebound of the economy at some point fairly soon starts to grow again all yeah bump along the bottom for awhile. Not I think we're gonna grow very rapidly here this. This whole recession is very different than normal one I personally don't think it started in December of 2007. I think it started in September of 2008. And we had a huge drop in the last via a panic if you will that was when Lehman Brothers failed the TARP program was proposed. And and when you have a big drop in velocity like that you can come back up just this past the V shape recovery is what I've been expecting. By the way in today's employment report the civilian. A measure of employment which is a is where we go to people's houses and asked people if they're working it -- a 120000. Jobs were created. In the month of April and so I I think that recessions -- ended may okay well here's a -- hit an all store that would running with today and that is the deficit. We gonna get a new deficit projection from the white house on Monday it's likely to go up close to two trillion dollars for this year -- We've got to borrow that money a bar and operation is not going well interest rates are rising wooden -- lay down on future economic activity. If it does Stewart and this is this is it a great point and I have. What I've been telling investors is is that we have a window here. Of twelve to eighteen months the Federal Reserve is very easy it's a comedy in its printing lots of money. The mark to market accounting rules were changed in velocity is coming back. And that means the stock market in the economy I think are going to outperform the consensus expectations. But when we get down the road 121824. Months from now we're gonna pay a price for this growth in government. It's going to hurt this economy later but right now we have a window of calm in the middle of the storm if you will. Where I think people who can stay optimistic can make lots of money that's very interesting you're telling me that the stock market rally up 2000 points in the last two months is for real it's based -- yes on the financial this is based on the fundamentals of the economy which are rapidly improving. Absolutely we had become so negative I mean 67%. Of S&P 500 companies are beating consensus estimates and and that's it that's unbelievable all the data on the economy is beating consensus estimates right now. And that's because I think people thought this was a normal recession when in fact it was this drop in velocity and is it comes back. We could return to our kind of August levels. Pretty quickly which means a 4% ten year treasury and and may be even as much as 11000. On the Dow. Fast and Brian Westbrook thanks so much for joining us come back and -- and -- with a forecast like that we'll take you bet that the political will do is start have a have a good week kind of operation."