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FOXBusiness.com LIVE: Numbers to Fear?

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FOXBusiness.com LIVE: Numbers to Fear?

Published: Tue, 28 Apr 2009

Description: 04/28/09

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

" One case -- case there. -- the CDC hasn't necessarily -- in these cases you have to really watch headline sometimes you get health officials are local health ministries saying that they haven't confirmed case. But at the CDC had a confirmed it's that we expect to hear more and more of this. As the day in the week goes on really that we have to be careful with these headlines and absolutely and that's exactly right because. Biggest city is cut and closing the restaurants down by the way -- latest -- at a restaurant signaling you take out. -- can't sit in a restaurant can keep germs."

" Interesting that in the schools they did already -- hate can't do anything can't go anywhere -- good good thanks so. Anyway say a bad out there but they feel it would -- more perspective -- that -- at least over the last day or so it seems like which is good because. No you need that. I -- with a developing situation like that's what looks like all the reports on the Chrysler deal in the banks would forgo six point nine billion dollars in debt. In return for two billion in cash so you don't want more than talk a lot about this Chris Carter's in Detroit. At the Chrysler headquarters just outside of Detroit he'll join us in a little while alive from their Rebecca when -- global insight velocity on the program that for the veteran."

" I don't send that I'm getting a new markets and I'm moving that much there's so slash -- said Robert I mean what exactly. Did you see if you happen with the financials over the last -- so. And what do you make of what's going on the market today."

" Well some big numbers and I'm still wondering you know why would you want to go to restaurant for take out of there worried about it and how -- delivery ended the set up a butler box so they know when -- actually got in Iraq they just -- the -- there you put your cash in there and -- happen to thank -- good topics at the head of the site had sucked and -- a sudden they are trying to tell my digestion in the markets -- lunchtime or something but yeah. Anyway I seriously yeah. But -- you look at these Friedman Billings Rendell -- the same Bank of America needs at least sixty to seventy. Billion dollars and that's a lot of cash there cold hard cash and yeah yeah -- capital and yet they can't get this based on their stress -- and -- looking at 12% unemployment they're. There wondering whether or not the government stress tests were stressful enough there's a lot of talk out there about that -- we had -- big article in the journal this morning saying both Bank of America and Citigroup. Needing more capital on a number of the regional we've talked about them before Regions Financial. I did bad believe based in Birmingham Alabama and you've got a Fifth Third Bank based in Cincinnati and a couple others that were mentioned by name and and they've long been. I sort of told about those that the talked about is the weakest links in there but. There's a lot of concern about it tangible common equity how much you cash can name the get to how quickly you know it back some of that toxic assets on their books and -- Freddie Mac on the talk a little bit more and dealt with you on this or not but. Which may with a separate -- come up Wells Fargo throwing that name in there as well needing cash element Bank of America which seems to be the headliner and you have to wonder about the today if they are -- an economy going look guys we took care Maryland's take care of us. In addition to the possibility in this you know they're preferred shares being. May have converted into common shares which is still lose every once -- including ours could be a 401K you've got shares in these big banks that make no bones about that."

" Right so those are you don't inherently a diluted Melissa knew you'd almost think the stocks -- been down more votes. The declines nonetheless for for most of the banking stocks. Today and the market kind of millionaires who said broadly speaking up by nine and a half points on the Dow -- we've watched going to hit the afternoon."

" Ally on the other secondary offerings of -- John -- Pacific American securities -- San Diego and is there really going well we've talked about Alcoa really kicked off your right around the -- they had an offering. They need to raise cash quickly we've seen Goldman Sachs stood Northern Trust and it is doing it they priced last night had to get a discount. How to present -- fifty dollars which even as the stocks down if you bought in that secondary offering which institutional investors are coming in and buying insides. For this is is not something you and I really going out and buy any shares that are priced in the second unit is secondary offerings fifteen million shares of fifty bucks a share Sedaris. Appetite out there and the question is whether others appetite for a Bank of America force Citigroup to go this route they wouldn't you if you're talking about fifty billion dollars you have to have a lot of shares. So it remains adjusting and IBM of course good news on IBM Big Blue boosting the dividends of god does these days and raising their share buyback program we heard a lot about stock buybacks in more than a year."

" Now that's exactly right that I BM news came out exactly as the opening bell will -- this morning 9:30 eastern thank you rather we appreciate that. Now we want to get on to our poll question. Of the day and then mole Bergen our first guest. By the morning of the afternoon from from Cantor Fitzgerald but. The poll according to Harris interactive which company came in the last place in the reputation. Uphold that we're going to talk about this which one do you think came in last place we're going to talk about this later on -- showed some big marathon. About company's reputation -- it's a very interesting topic when you think about it but you saw the the choice is up there people are starting their vote there AIG Halliburton GM Chrysler Washington Mutual."

" The most unpopular kid in the class. It gives you and school they need that here you can do you think your and it's nice that things like that we have definitely decency."

" That is well you know AIG's they of them not I would say the leader in the clubhouse just yet but the leader out of the gate. -- that's quite a surprise that I look for some of the early voters picking AIG. A minute you know a lot of -- my big win here and say that's going to be a runaway winner today -- taking and that's our managing -- working with you yet. That's it. I wanted to point out a couple things about what's coming on the show later we're going to talk Twitter which is one of our favorite topics you know later on in the in the show me how religions coming on who's the co founder stock twits and it's a kind of an online community that. What people talk about. Stocks on Twitter so if you want to learn about that you'll learn about. For the easiest and -- empower them. Yeah Bobby -- and a little bit yeah and those kind of the stock information comes out as it at that. Takes I knew exactly good while to get out yet people can share their what they're buying and selling self. Kind of silly for you and I are going to love the investing in stocks military -- getting glories in the marketplace that's. Mindlessly use that under an alias Twitter name gets out of I -- senator Robert Gray one works for that there. All right anyway so -- us here from Cantor Fitzgerald to talk about the markets and in office so much stuff to talk about good to -- marked by the way thanks for coming in doing the show this is appreciated today. We want -- who I'd like to talk a little bit about these this banks story if it's okay off the top of the the show here is city Griffin and BankAmerica needing more capital. What do you make of that and the idea of some of these other banks is Robert mentioned being added to lists whether it's Wells Fargo or some of the regional sound. Any surprise and any of this that came up a -- morning."

" We're really. The stress test. The reason why they -- such a lag time was so that the banks would have this opportunity to address these issues. And also go back to the treasury and say. We also we don't agree with you -- and discuss some of these these differences in terms of the valuations being given the assets and and how much capital would need to be raised so. This leaking this out ahead of time and I this probably no surprise a lot of people knew that the banks. We're going to need to raise capital. Obviously the stocks go down makes it more difficult yet but defense stands ready to allow them to convert preferred to common in and meet any requirement that's necessary."

" Am thinking ahead to market adage is that you see that your life in these are good ones have happen happened aboard don't fight the Fed. Is one of them and the other way and in the market serves to frustrate. The majority. I think -- something we might all be feeling a little bit as we've seen a market pretty good market brand over the last seven weeks yourself. Explain what is starting with the first languish as the market serves to frustrate the majority letting --"

" Well whenever he gets on the same page then pretty much. That expectation has already been fulfilled so when everyone wants the market to pull back so that they can get in."

" On the prices that de list from the market turned abruptly. -- the market is not going to give them that price they're not market is not going to fall back to that level. For the same place that we were."

" On March 11 when or the week of march 11 when we were looking at banks failing."

" They're talking about nationalizing all the financials asking them back a lot of that you've got to go with what the market -- establishing a market to go."

" Exactly what she's very good word then when you get to the point where you're hoping and wishing if you use those editors then you got there --"

" Its own plan I think that's found god nothing. The report -- good point -- from Georgia really -- here -- intent on the top of the show is consumer confidence is now looking better than it did at the beginning in the year I mean it's off record. Loans loans that we haven't seen since that would start surveying how do you feel about the economy in 1967 so. I'm -- says how to get the finally decide the outlook was better the consumer sentiment seems insane to me but he thinks that that."

" The amazing thing is that present situation. Component of that didn't change it is up just slightly Saddam -- things are better now. But they're actually saying. We think that things -- get better in the future. Six months down the road and they're really reflecting a lot of what they're hearing from the rest of us who are economists that are looking down the road saying. He had all of this stimulus coming into the economy you have the repair the financial system."

" Have all -- tell -- is still better than outlook that we had intervening and the year absolutely right we there're so many things that came in the month of march. With the feds planned the treasury."

" Don't forget that we we also dealt with T mark to market which was part of what a major component. To yeah brought the markets and a lot of."

" It's bad data communication always kind of decide about sit at home prices are still falling but for the first time since October -- seven. We didn't have a record decline -- it's funny that that's that that's -- what you grab onto but hey. It's better then then what it was the last couple months that's the same lasted just cowardice yet but worse exactly -- it had been so. -- one of the things it was a nice consumer confidence report as well in this kind of leads us into what we're going to spend on the show talking about today is that a few more people again this kind of semi. A few more people sitting in -- by car universally a four point 8% but it was going up rather than down -- last month and the last couple months what do you make what's happening with the auto makers now looks like. -- it's not a done deal just yet but it looks like this Chrysler thing is going to get blue resolved quite possibly a deal with the lender seems to be in place. GM of course is but the longer time for their -- the what do you make of these auto makers."

" You know it's going to be tough the auto makers are are still -- rural part of the US economy. In manufacturing especially -- jobs tied to it. There's a lot of legacy cost debt. All these issues have to be dealt when there's a very short time horizon we may still see some sort of a bankruptcy."

" But not."

" The kind of bankruptcy that completely stopped the business that would be catastrophic because you have some parts suppliers so with the looking for is a way of holding off a lot of the expenses and really."

" Reassessing everything getting it back to working but things do get this done with Chrysler."

" And are able to sell some of these some of these manufacturing to Fiat that would be a very big plus for the UAW man for --"

" So moving forward and what is your outlook for 2009. -- work feeling optimistic we're being told that we should be more optimistic. Well what what do you think I think that we have."

" Still more upside for the stock market in 2009 -- think the fourth quarter comparisons are going to be quite easy couldn't. Right to last year's fourth quarter so we would expect to see GDP rise in the fourth quarter. This economic turnaround -- is not going to be a very strong robust broad based economic turnaround. One reason is that we have a lot of the elasticity meaning that we have. A lot of the capacity utilization scandal about 7% productivity -- there's a lot of room to expand. Without actually hiring new workers. Without actually building new plants so. There's going to be some profit because of the margins we've depleted our inventories so much say that I get that I think I mean anything you can't actually cannot. I think that we heard in. In human terms of what in new in terms of us -- we've cut back quite a bit employment probably not yet okay. And what we'll see in the fourth quarter is the margins the gross margins improve dramatically."

" Okay mark thanks -- you couple things we gotta get to -- no defect a couple more questions with market of Cantor Fitzgerald is with us. -- as a piece of breaking news and a few people broad enough on the on the go live chat while we were talking and so we want to stay on top of the news as much as possible out of Washington. Word that senator Arlen Specter the Democrats competitive Republican from Pennsylvania is switching parties to become. A Democrat and run for reelection in 2010. As a Democrat. So that is a big political story because it affects the balance of power certainly in the Senate when it comes to the sixty votes. As our Richardson just pointed out to us yet 57 -- forty Republicans want in the Franklin and the Al Franken Norm Coleman race it's technically undecided and into independence. In in -- Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman caucus with the Democrats so in other words suspect the shift for Specter means the -- some Democrats would get their sixty votes and that's a big political story. Just breaking out of Washington now we'll talk a little bit about it but Iraq."

" He says that not represented the Republican Party and represent the people of Pennsylvania so that feeling that he's ever shifting his career he will be filing estranged come mentioned -- wanted to Jeff Flock is standing by. And -- can't Clemens Michigan. I'm now Jeff a lot of breaking news this hour and we know that a lot of it comes from -- with the latest."

" We have been confirmed yet obviously we heard the reports this morning that a deal was close with the lenders for Chrysler and Chrysler I have not confirmed that we've got to deal. A between Chrysler and its lenders on the debt. Here is the the statement that I just got from the administration. Source that the administration says. The agreement from Chrysler's principal banks is an exceptional accomplishment. In line with the presence firm commitment that all stakeholders sacrifice to make this deal succeed that was the one stakeholder. The banks obviously that everybody was most concerned about the government. And the banks the price -- Santa packs it's difficult to tell the difference these days had been far apart on me about. Debt they were willing to swap for equity. No details at this point get on just what the numbers are that we don't have but it appears that deal was done. That means two of the keys to two of the three -- standing up bankruptcy on Thursday have been achieved. The agreement with the United Auto Workers in the Canadian auto workers has been done now it appears that the deal it's been done -- at least the administration is now confirming. But the deal has been done with a -- that leaves only. Beyond -- arrangement with Chrysler Fiat. To essentially stave off the bankruptcy we almost all -- would be assured. Today we're out parts supplier very difficult to get inside parts suppliers during tough times the -- met with the brave guy. Who has had three generations. Your business. Chrysler wanted your big -- this is got."

" Be absolutely absolutely -- this is tremendous news these are pieces that we had hoped to see come together. A stronger Chrysler makes us stronger TM it's not so we're we're excited to see this TM -- made -- once right now which shall we support you make. Just so that our viewers get a sense you know we talk about how that the tentacles of this -- makes everything Paronto. Who what do we make we make a lot of products that are made in the United States anymore we makes little -- for CNC machines. In secret like behind us here this is a the milling machine. Okay these are high precision machine. Tools -- used in not drilling tapping -- applications these are essential items to to big industry particularly the auto industry how -- of part of the industry out of your business is the auto industry or transportation. Transportation's probably 90%. A big part. So you know we're right in the heart of automotive country yet Chrysler had ordered GM headquarters. These are these are big customers -- if you could save Chrysler without a bankruptcy if you've got the Fiat arrangements. And they were beaten to begin to make for example the yachts in the US obviously that would be the next implication we will look to see and maybe make some small engines here. You don't that would fit with these car because they're not a joint assembly these cars here let's season's Melinda because it's what every -- clear these your engines this is specifically for engine. And I did anybody did stepping out drilling a hole we've got products or but but in the automotive attentions of where we end up and transmission so yeah it'd be great news for us. Well there you go guys first first reaction to this news that. Apparently a deal is done now we're not we can't say at this point that they staved off bankruptcy if they still have to get -- done that we don't have yet."

" you look at this story even if she gets you read about me. It's great work on this incredible we were so pleased totti joke from College Station as a question on that PI. Caveat which is there a possibility that Chrysler will stay solvent without being bought out by fiat what's your answer to gel."

" Well again it's not a buyout just -- were clear what the Fiat deal would be it would be a merger now some people said well -- don't have control maybe Fiat would have their -- CEO take over Chrysler. But very important to note. Because I think politically would be very difficult for the administration to turn over control if they had if they had saying it may have. Clearly do not turn over control -- Chrysler to a foreign. Auto -- what it was Fiat or anyone else. The US fortunate that would retain control with Fiat would clearly be a big player and it may be. That the CEO of Fiat winds up running Chrysler. At this point I don't think anyone so much cares about that as long as the auto makers preserve the jobs or preserve. And the big company continues to be strong."

" find out for one final question is -- on this Christmas Los Angeles brains of the points and watch your opinion on it. It's still come down people like to buy cars so it do you hear anything beyond just the immediate at the next couple days about what. What -- have a game plan would look like into the next here play ten."

" Well you know I spent the morning meeting. We have had fires here in Detroit. Auto ad buyers and trying to get some sense for what they think they're going to do going forward to try to stimulate demand. Also making your obesity and -- tidbit that apparently came out of that. Only typical -- a couple of -- it's very. Sort of telling that may be at a bottom here's what. Came out in. They were very -- hearing today the conference board. I have line that you know they ask people about consumer confidence one of the questions that part of that survey is do you plan to buy a car. Going forward -- within the next six months question. The April. Number one that was four point 8% of the people surveyed said that they did plant the -- next eight months. That would be the best reading so far since last January. It's sort of indicated march the reading was four point 0% so we've had a great time tenths of a percent increase in that. People would look at the statistics say that's significant we could be upon. The interesting thing about that all right thanks Jeff appreciate that nice guys thank you."

" brings us back around -- today outlook and EI BI getting back teen market that the white what we really can't expect ourselves and -- the difference between consumer confidence in the survey. And what actually happened volume that we shouldn't lately but even -- listing just my tax rebate or anything like that there's a lot that variables in this market. There are a lot."

" And you know one thing that we need to look at is how much cash is out there what are the alternatives for investing that money. So we look at money market accounts the money that's been put aside pulled it by institutions and individuals. It was making records going. Turn into 20093. Point one trillion dollars -- exciting cash getting. 1% one and a half percent. That grew to three point nine trillion by march 11. In the market bottom. And since then only a hundred billion as of last Friday only a hundred billion has gone back in the markets soared 20% surge. In the S&P we have three point eight trillion dollars sitting in money market accounts. It was a lot of short covering India and things like that when when that was identified the market had -- the but he jumped back into was shifting. Not new money coming in that takes time yeah motivates them money to come and it takes time because -- to build confidence you have to see some signs that the economy is recovering. You can't just be that were picked this expectation markets knew in advance. All of the economy but once we get confirmation is where you really convinced that money to comment so there is upside and we look six months nine months a year down the road for the market. And some upside for the com."

" So this idea of a -- and -- economic and or market bottom may."

" Sense to -- it sounds like absolutely I think that the market has seen its lol I don't think we'll go on repeat. Those prices certainly we might pull back a little that it takes you know no market moves in one direction for an extended period of time without some sort of consolidation. We're building a base in here I think the base will support a bigger surge later in the years starting in third quarter."

" And that's how much money is actually -- on the sideline and quote unquote normal market. I would say that there is. You know in a good market one point 5000000000001. Point six trillion joins -- and in times of corrections or or normal pullback should continue to two point two trillion. So three point eight is a significant percentage increase over that level that is a significant changes take place in the money market -- and -- sitting in money market account to essentially just. -- it's getting a yield based on a blend of everything from and -- you know see these 210 year treasuries but. It's all combining given that yield that's just around 2%."

" When that money when the motivation comes and you say the signs of a turnaround in the economy there that that when that money starts to head back into. Stocks let's say -- ago."

" At the earliest part of the cycle and we've seen this already technology is always the leader because it it helps him leverage that money. And the growth for the economy so we look at tech is a leading indicator. It then rolls into sectors that are economically sensitive such as the retailers which have also done -- unbelievably. Durham 50%. Since March."

" not really seen that same trend and we talked about that a lot of the show that we -- so these really consumer discretionary stocks. Being done the bright light in the market."

" Yeah you think that this would be the opposite -- in in fact it's a good leading indicator that people are putting their money into this eventually -- into some little. Large cap more industrial names were once the economy is showing signs of recovery."

" These companies benefit from it and then ultimately multinationals. -- John that I was asking us from making he said that you want to see the market retest the lows despite my hand doesn't everybody want to see the Mercury tests solicitation."

" inventory we have to -- different appetite conducted at the moment but. The reason why it said it. We keep on hearing it and we haven't lasted -- out of our system yet we don't see the market -- down lonely time -- it's going to go down eventually and we have to just one more final. Purging of all the bad news."

" You know I take it kills me because I've been in the market for over twenty years and and it. You get one selling climax in October we had these selling climax broke all the records. We solve the index which measures volatility go to ninety."

" The normal range for the -- is between."

" Ten and thirty were thirties and extreme oversold condition went to ninety and."

" You know twenty to one yeah she's been there we -- in -- and that that's not going back pedal for the clintons -- face masks and trend coming back office staff Leon."

" Ever go any year you don't go to -- to get out mark thanks for coming and we really appreciate it if you market from for Cantor Fitzgerald with us today on Fox Business dot com nonfarm wow lot of news this hour -- assure the Chrysler deal a good job and Jeff Flock on the I want. Bob being confirm their deal with the lenders Arlen Specter's not going to be Republican anymore he's he -- understand it -- he said."

" Apparently at USC at Obama -- senator Specter and tell them that this is -- from a senior administration official you have my full support and we are. Thrilled to have -- as we are thrilled to have you today I taxes."

" Sure here's C researcher he is on his son to be on hand Specter you know remember there -- he had been there or could have been facing a pretty strong challenge for reelection. On the democratic side analyses on the democratic suddenly with a challenge will be there would be tiny number of rumors admitted that -- Didn't look it wouldn't call by a Republican and runs against infection yeah that would -- Pennsylvania's tough state to predict politically -- seat. What happens in 2010 but that's that's uninteresting story today so we have that and you know what you we are. Someone has -- seven after the hour we have even talked about swine flu yet so we may as well. Doctor how mark tells with the university of of Michigan. And doctor Marco we appreciate you coming -- he's the author of the book when germs travel six major epidemics and invaded America's since 1900 and the fears. Dave and we shall we get good guess to have well right exactly right above a cool little. It's impossible to tell as you know now this one's going to measure up but -- the early on. Indications of what what stands out to you what should we be thinking about in terms of --"

" Look at this point. Well I think we should be concerned I think the public health officials both in this country -- wells around the world are working very hard and very effectively. To hopefully contain this but it is a real crisis and we need to take the necessary steps to make sure it doesn't get out of hand."

" So let's talk I see just a note here. That says this could. Peter out of it could be an epidemic of mild proportions it could be very deadly like at an epidemic of 1918. Since like pretty severe. Differences of an outcome when little weak. No it they would they don't -- and thank him serious this isn't it within a month how long are we going to be chasing some of these flew headlines."

" We'll sadly you may know several weeks after it's done the one thing about that the history of epidemics teaches us particularly flu epidemics. Is that -- predictably unpredictable. So he could be all of the above we're hoping it'll Peter out or it could go quiet for awhile and then come back in the fall. But the bottom line is that we have to be concerned about it and act on it when we have information as it comes out."

" Tough to balance that is that professor I mean that that's -- the government's trying to do what they want to be as aggressive as possible without being alarmist. And you know so far the case is thank goodness here in the United States -- not prove to be -- even -- seems like more more people are coming down with the it seems like each treatable what could change step what do we need to look for. That would make this more serious than it appears to be on the early going at least here in the United States."

" Well your point is right it is a very tough job than hitting that sweet spot of acting with appropriate measures -- the right time. Is very difficult. One thing that we're looking for is how mild or severe of these cases are. In Mexico for example we've had about 83 deaths with thirteen hundred reported cases. Although there -- likely be many many thousands of more cases that were not severe enough to go to their doctors. What we're going to find out in the weeks to come in American cases is is -- the tip of the iceberg. Are they all mild or do some of these people get sicker and even die. And that unfortunately is something only time will tell."

" Net book any act Pamela talent it's interesting -- from Virginia said. I -- a question on those mild to severe case is that he was wondering if you had any idea why we are seeing. Milder cases here where it seems like if you get this flu. It's kind of like any other flew united and hospitalized for the most part at least right now. And in the case -- in Mexico seem very very severe watch quite NEC said -- discrepancy."

" Well I don't that the discrepancy as it's much of the tip of the iceberg of what we're seeing the United States and our our picture right now is truly a snapshot of only about forty or so cases. If we were to have 5000 cases let's say. We might have a better spectrum of the natural history of this disease. But there's a lot of theories going on as to why the Mexican flu victims are getting so sick. One may be that. They just have more cases and we get a better spectrum. Second maybe there's some type of co factor whether it's a medication they are taking -- whether to folk remedy your aspirin or something else that is exacerbating their symptoms. Or is it a -- infective factors are they. Infected with something else as well. If you recall in the 1970s right syndrome. Very serious. Brain. Syndrome happen as a result of after people had flu they took aspirin particularly children so those two issues may have worked together. For somebody harm but we really don't know yet I have a lot of theories and rest assured. A world class scientists for all of this micro biologist epidemiologist. Are working on this very question."

" Well doctor on that what can be seen as part of the media coverage that you think is categorically. Inaccurate. Perceptions of fear is in the public that is just wrong during -- time I guess."

" Both sides from the usual mistakes that to happen I I there's been a lot of punditry going on -- does nothing that can be done or there's everything that can be done. You know -- what we need to do is take a measured approach and this is a social concern. We are all in this together. We have to trust our. Federal officials and our state and local officials particularly our public health workers who were very hard. To prevent these types of events we also have to realize that the story is changing hour by hour day by day. And as we get more information we need change the game plan. That doesn't mean it's a mistake it means that more data and more information and you want to act on it. But so too Americans need to be part of this -- need to take some measures such as washing your hands. If your coffee machines use a tissues and -- and other people. And if you are sick. Stay home. Don't go to work -- don't go to school because you'll infect other people."

" The -- children may be capitalizing on the."

" Oh yeah Aaland you -- my my my daughter is already asking about its account today I think I got -- exactly -- had not surprising at all. It's interesting guards said he knew somebody had a trip planned to Mexico SA I can't tell the doctor doctor at the personal -- that LA convention was begun in Mexico next week. I'm serious well I think you have to look deep in your heart about whether you want to go -- not far be it from me at the WH I was like going to he would travel advisory far be it for me. But I think I would use common sense and the the trip is not necessary. I want to do not just tell."

" I think that exactly like."

" Like what I get I hear you need to be told -- well between you me and that that. Between you and me in a million of our closest friends. I would suggest they hold -- the -- and daughter I appreciate your opinion I think it's probably the right one."

" It brings a speeding through Princeton -- for -- yeah that's right yeah. They didn't bring us larger issue about people being afraid to do things right I mean that we got that's what I'm talking -- and balances that right so far the news is beyond. Rather -- use the -- reassuring -- is probably not the right -- but at least it hasn't been. All that alarming incidents -- we haven't seen the worst case yet and as you see things can change the data could change. But we've got to be very careful though we that we don't just stop stop living."

" Exactly we don't want to stop living we don't want to disrupt the commerce and flow of American society or the things that make life worth living. But do we don't want to panic either and so the term I always used either to patients or students or to colleagues that we need informed concerned. Need to think about things we need to update our own information as much as we can and the good news is that in this connected world on the Internet and so on not just. With cable television and so on but you can get the latest update on the CDC website. At any moment of the day or night and it'll give -- great information of what you should be concerned about and what you shouldn't be concerned about."

" Doctor thank you so much for joining us it was really a pleasure to have you and thank you process sobbing my -- personal travel plans I appreciated. What they -- that he said he opposed going to the oh well they'll die they ought to get very much to -- doctor Howard I am our count from the University of Michigan -- happened today."

" New York which may or may not be safe for the way things turn out good grief all right look at the retention breaking news out of Washington on this Arlen Specter story going to be a Democrat -- rich. -- gonna be a Democrat in fact as early as caucusing with the other Democrats at their weekly policy lunch she's going to be -- this afternoon this does. Is it creates a situation of 57. That Democrats in the Senate. But if you include the two independents that caucus with the Democrats and there's that race in Minnesota. And it seems to be going the way of Al Franken the Democrat in that race you've got yourself sixteen Democrats and a filibuster proof senate in other words. Democrats can pretty much show override any type of procedural maneuver Republicans might try to put up. When it comes to passing major policy initiatives that's why rich this is a big story writes the IDS -- there isn't supposed to get our board for example that some from Republicans say you know I expect is always kind of acted as a Republican we as a Democrat I should say we know that he's been. At least moderate and good riddance some to some people said earlier. But this idea of getting the sixties the big political story right. Night it certainly is taking a senator Arlen Specter he was one of three Republicans to vote for the stimulus plan the other two were it and as Republicans privately called in the usual suspects senator Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine. Those they're Republicans are pretty much the easiest targets -- had been easiest targets for Democrats who were looking to get some moderate that Republicans over to their side but what this does. Is it still creates a situation. Or what it did with the Democrats still have to go across the -- And talk to the Republicans at least to get done in this situation now and -- senator Arlen Specter becoming a Democrat and if you senator Al Franken coming in. Everything can be done within the Democratic Party and within that democratic policy launched -- even really talk to the Republicans. To try to influence the way to the bills have to be written it's much like the way the House of Representatives work where there's really all that how much input from from Republicans because they don't necessarily need them to get anything passed right so that's the big short term story in this now along the longer term rich obviously his election -- reelection -- come up in 2010 running as a Democrat. Specter had been when I understand facing. Or potential pretty tough battle and in Pennsylvania which is a real swing state. I wonder what that does that to his reelection campaign in other words other Republicans waiting in the wings that might run against him from the other side was something Jenna brought up a few minutes ago. Whatever is actually concerned with senator Specter that he may not even make it through the primary process for the Republican Party it is congress and a mystery to me out there. Whose polling exceptionally well for senator Specter of course with that -- with the stimulus package that doesn't help them with many Republicans but I think it is looking for the Senate in 30. He's looking at a state Pennsylvania that registered about 2000 more Democrats that it had. For the 2008 election. Most of those folks have remained with the Democratic Party. And you know senator Specter was a guy he's -- he's a pro life guy pro stem cell guy he hey at least when it came to that in the Republican Party they didn't see all that I'd ISO is adding to think that thinking is here is that maybe he's worked at some sort of deal with the Democratic Party overall probably back him. In a primary election as an incumbent. To run as the Democrat running for reelection in 30 and then he would face said the challenger that he was gonna potentially face of the Republican primary in the general election so this actually might help his chances to be senator."

" For another term very good point rates and actually gets in and into the general -- potentially does send whether or not that's the motivation I guess maybe we will never know but that's. That's good point politically aren't rich -- on the big political story at a DC today Arlen Specter switching from Republican. Two Democrat thank you rich appreciate it Texas all right so I -- back on the Fox News Channel doing a report for them right behind me on her magic wall so you can watch that on television right now the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up sixteen points for what it's worth today at 8000. At 41 so we stay on top of the market's all you Twitter fans we're going to talk Darren Woodson of stock twits. -- bit later on I know that may be. Publicity you that follow the markets at least on Twitter been looking forward to that's a that's an about. Ten minutes or so that we really got to get to the auto story and talk in some more DTL. About this Chrysler deal Jeff Flock broke forest later this hour and about General Motors. As well so Rebecca -- joins us now from global insight I just global insight and she knows autos like nobody else ever Rebecca. It's always -- to the Chrysler. -- deal looks like it's -- deal looks like it's getting done. It's."

" Really impressive -- because tries really seem to be getting everybody have their little party and that defendant that they obstacle is can only get all of the interested. And I issues really iron out looks like they're able to so far."

" Yet -- this surprise you at all I mean that you didn't and other words of I told you this last week the week before would you have been surprised."

" At this point nothing really has been rising up and in what book are -- but I think that yes anywhere you know -- We see her alive. And denials -- we start to get some news if there's momentum -- kind says none and that nothing's really going on so. I think that they and that it it is kind of surprising but we are also reaching the absolute deadline of Thursday where Chrysler needs to make -- break so. I had the timing is not entirely surprising but I think it's great that they're making good progress with these different parties."

" So what might this look like on the other -- to mean if Chrysler is able to avoid this bankruptcy filing. You know how to -- emerge and ended the Fiat alliance and this is all going to work."

" Well you know one of the issues that continues to face Chrysler is the idea that they have to get consumers. Back into the shower around buying Chrysler dodge and Jeep again. I want you really look at how Chrysler revitalize itself it lets your products like the Chrysler 300 large sedan. That five point seven liter Henne and Jen you know that that great ad campaign with as it has to kind of -- starting -- It wasn't through small Italian cars. Sell it just because they avoid bankruptcy doesn't mean if they're out of the woods yet we've got to get the consumer back into the shower right so you don't think it doesn't sound like you think they're on the right track then product -- soon regardless of the financial. Well you know the problem with the product is that the government. Deregulation -- policy is making them. Go after small cars because the government is putting in the new fuel economy regulations Oppenheim called cafe regulations. And just start in the 20101112. And really push on to 2015. Kept. Chrysler's actually be kind of forced by government policy to head toward --"

" What I GM in all of this to mean now looks like Chrysler gets a bond -- deal in place we talked to a number of potential investors even those that -- GM bonds are those that have in the past or thought about the issue and -- I'm tired -- a lot of people but so sought an offer yesterday and say you know what. I wouldn't take -- I'd take my chances of bankruptcies GM different than Chrysler."

" GM is quite different then crisis or because of course first -- all -- publicly held and they have a lot more. Debt holders and bondholders. And then Chrysler dad they also actually kinda. If it all works out well crowd GM could actually benefit a little bit more. From bankruptcy because that would allow them to clean up some of the brand issues that they are having. It would allow them to get out of their dealer franchise agreements so. GM in many ways. Could benefit more from bankruptcy than Chrysler does so there -- have it in a quite different situation and of course they have another thirty days they have until May 31 before. The bell --"

" Job but what if it does play out that way in General Motors does end up filing and Chrysler for the time being -- boy did. What happens to Chrysler and -- Ford after the General Motors filing."

" Well -- not get back to really that consumer. That gets back to how does that consumer behavior in terms of whether they really hold back from purchasing vehicles. -- generally today go to court for just sport and back benefit. From from the instability at GM the bankruptcy and if Chrysler tries to restructure step. Did a lot is dependent upon that consumer coming back into the show -- they don't you know all the negotiation that goes on is really interesting to the street. But at the end of the day we got to get the consumer backing these particular chat room."

" You know it's interesting Rebecca we talked earlier Jeff Flock actually brought this up in his report and we talked earlier about some of the consumer confidence numbers showing that. Well nothing crazy but a few more people are thinking about buying a car that had been right the numbers right four point 8%. Doesn't sound great headaches it's it's up as opposed to down. So this notion that we've kind of bottomed out that the worst -- past -- does that make sense to you."

" Eight I had -- we're trying it can make sense you know things like this wine -- doesn't help at all because. We are very fragile economy stay out. So as we're trying to rebuild consumer confidence. We have to get better news from housing chip as our half our housing analyst Patrick Newport -- without housing -- that better than autos. We still need to cut -- Catholic -- so we still need to get back consumer back in terms of their household finances. Back in order stability in the housing market and now we can start to look for some kind. -- growth back to normalcy in the automotive industry is we are very far from normal right now."

" Far from normal that's right you know housing analyst does go out for drinks and has made quite a party right."

" That's not you it's always history -- it got up. Rebecca when when I HS global insight on the on the auto story today all right again we're going to talk Twitter with Howard with the -- on the stock twits in just a moment so stay tuned. For that general be back from the Fox News Channel in just a moment you see you look at your plane with a wall behind me. -- Are but in the meantime you guys though the poll question already probably started to weigh in on it and I told GA IG was going to win this big time. Which of these companies came in last in this. Consumer satisfaction survey we're going to talk now about a with Robert front who's the chief management officer at depth. Harris interactive. Good see you thank you very much for coming in. We -- you know I know you've we have -- our viewers here who they thought would maybe kind of finish up the rear so to speak which company did have the least amount of I guess confidence in AIG by the way as 81% of the vote for what it's worth. Right now the choices that they were given Halliburton 10% GM five Chrysler to -- Washington Mutual also. Has 2% tell us about the --"

" Shall service they have this is never serving on corporate reputation as the tenth -- that Harris interactive has been doing this. And this year overall we we sort of a tipping point where nearly nine in ten Americans said that the reputation of corporate America is not good or terrible."

" Up from an average of the last five years of 65 to 70% -- we have a lot of people on our program all the time because you know so interactive that we get to speak to people while we're on the air and there is a lot of anti government sentiment. And his speech the other thing that's out. In the country right now which is anti business sentiment or anti corporate America sentiment sounds pretty bad. It is but interestingly enough the same audience was able to identify. An elite group of companies for the first time in the -- we have six companies who have reputations that were considered excellent okay let me stop you there for a moment because it again with people that are following along we have a graphic of the top five in the bottom five. From the -- so what will do this while we're while you and I are talking we'll bring it up and now it's up here at the moments of the top five. Coke and Kraft had been on the bottom five. You know come from the worst up we talked about AIG which was the actual bottom Halliburton GM Chrysler and Washington Mutual so it sounds like our viewers. Pretty much got it right but you wanted to focus on the positive a little bit tell us about this the -- at the top of the survey will be."

" They did you know which it would be easy to sort of have a mob mentality if you will with all that's gone on in terms of bonuses and greed and and and bankruptcies and bailouts. But that that the public was more savvy and they are able to separate sort of the overall -- negative reputation tenor. And speak to the positives of these six companies in particular the common trait amongst the top 64 that they were very clearly seen -- companies that had a clear and focused leadership culture not just individual leaders but a leadership cause I -- A culture of accountability. And understanding of what clearly is right and wrong from both personal and corporate behavior so people are able to make that distinction who what what criteria do you think they used to make that distinction and then figure out which company stated that. Category but one of the interesting things we also look and see sort of what some of the source of information are and what does impact. How they perceive companies a lot of it has to do certainly we'll be talking a lot over the next coming weeks about how much word of mouth and social networks impact. But the traditional media still plays a major role as well as the company's corporate communications themselves. And these companies were also identified in terms of their own communications. As being perceived as being transparent. Consistent -- what they say an honest inaccurate their information you're advertising in the way you present yourself I mean it really does matter in other words they have lost to do with the advertising more about their corporate communications annual reports there web sites so and -- about the efforts."

" I focus of the direct communication kind of -- to people through right through those methods they really it's fun because you wonder whether whether some of that stuff works or not but seems like it does is interesting to see some of the comments. By that from people Bob and breast specific -- is right on Korean Georgia we got exactly right you know people top five looked pretty good somebody else have waited with fact pretty much agree with the consensus so. It's interesting we do pulls on the show all the time live polls and he always for the -- and it's not a scientific survey. Anything but most of the time this is she would just do it kind of gauge what people are thinking about her but it is interesting when people respond met a lot of times these things make perfect sense -- if you look at the top five in the bottom five this one. If that makes sense."

" Because behind the top and bottom that was also the interest in finding that while reputation can be somewhat. Glacier have a glacial moving pattern. Companies can get credit though for changing their behavior and for undertaking better business practices this year. Interestingly enough we saw the biggest mover in terms of actual RQ score be Wal-Mart. Who over the last 34 years while -- faced many reputation of challenges already begun to change how they think about sustainability. They're they're the way to deal with their employees and it looks like they're beginning to get credit for that and -- success in the down economy and that's got to help right isn't -- almost like sports we say. Come winning cures everything. It is and that's an interest in finding as well that top 21 that I mentioned who have been good to excellent reputation. The one consistent theme there is most of those companies could be considered value or comfort companies which right now is resonating in this."

" And what about and -- back from from Fox News by the way too much -- board job guide to Atlanta -- actually -- I'll look at Wal-Mart had they Specter Christina -- attorneys Kathleen -- on most used plane that you're there Robert -- with us from Harris interactive this that's fun -- fund interest and I guess is the right way to put it so it's -- we're talking about companies that have great reputations -- that a bad. You talked about Wal-Mart being able turnaround I'm going attention from bad to good or or getting better another is that probably better way to phrase it what about the other way what do what takes you off the the the nice Lisovicz on the -- samples are certainly this year there were some major climate say you mentioned in that bottom five General Motors and Chrysler had two of the largest falls we've ever seen. And it doesn't take again some of this can be pretty obvious it's it's pretty clear what has taken those General Motors fell in some of the -- comments we get. And in in the study results by the -- this is a scientifically statistical. Yes that's what is. Unlike -- I I think you know we we actually we actually a survey and and then analyze 125000 respondents for this story isn't enormous on."

" You're taking you know finishing try to convict has havens the head that I wasn't able to do today I was looking at the different companies that how how much taxpayers are invested for example General Motors the potential investment there's 50%. And Chrysler as you mentioned the top of the show -- about 5% for taxpayers and all that melanomas scenes that they companies that we're investing and well we don't like."

" Well interestingly enough the public did not have a negative perceptions about taking the money. For again on the negatives is the inverse of most positives they -- lack of leadership. And so they were questioned the validity of the investment if the leadership is not their first if there's not a vision support that and."

" The bottom fibers and her before -- got to the bottom pop the top spot can make sense from sometimes how these things work -- Muslim viewers who agreed looked up and say yeah that. I make sense with what -- what I would think also thank you write for coming and we we appreciate it Robert Friday that much from Harris interactive all right have a quick check. Of the markets before we talk Twitter now it's up 25. Finding yet Dow Jones Industrial Average off for what that it is worth again it's been some day really. It certainly market fluctuations one way or another doesn't necessarily tell the whole story we've had done. A shortage of news today while even this hour."

" And acting like it is our turn off flat and now are up but it's male participants seem like the news. Is determining exactly what's going on the market. We mean many mysterious again I don't know I'm saying the news because of these these -- thanks to the stress test yet the news about GM Chrysler and General Motors you have this news of the city's housing planet we have -- got to talking a little bit about an important we haven't got into about the treasury opening fifteen to fifty million dollars at therefore I second. -- Mortgage should right lenders and and you know there's a lot of news has taken this ally a headed said the -- hundred day anniversary in office showed there's a lot of news that I can't tell if it's volume and they wouldn't get a read on that -- the in the show -- volumes -- there. Courses tenant that's out there into."

" and aren't so maybe we will get remember -- canal -- that. Can be co founder stock to its few people here to some people on the board -- and friends are -- very few friends yeah I saw that. I feel like with friends are invited to let you better than me too well and it's obvious choice just like -- called it's a."

" An obvious judges cupped both the defense of what's going on so stocks which is obviously for people who don't know. Is that place this maybe you should describe that a that I would obviously but it's a place for people. Together to talk about the market what they're buying and selling its simplest terms."

" Yes it's very simple 140 characters have built on top of Twitter. And we took the best sayings of you know Bloomberg's most popular path for his community and chat and -- it. Yes we've taken that on Twitter platform which is a one -- many platform open it up to everybody globally. And it's been you know -- as opposed to just the Wall Street pros and every day and everything else are people that are willing to pay. A lot of money for months -- people except for free and yet your words are at -- it's easier to be your true self. It's harder to be somebody's take on Twitter there then if you're joking. But it recession financial or idea it stage if you're sharing ideas and there's a timeline of your ideas it's a much better way. To really be -- can be held accountable."

" If they -- that quote -- TV is it is often easy to be -- TV here is just there we don't say yeah we're not on TV. On the web room at all for the --"

" Have a personal band. CNBC and the site has a personal ban on NBC and we -- C. I don't think. I just don't think that there are doing their job what is specifically what's wrong when you watch TV what he might know what I'm why don't we all watch occasionally because you know on jetBlue so I watch a little bit yesterday -- show and I said I just think there's just a lot of noise and I think part of and people would say that about chocolate but the great thing about chocolates and -- at 2 o'clock communication okay you're held accountable --"

" And that's what -- about to ask does that mean you can you don't know who's posting on this. -- this -- the way it works right is that if you post something on -- you put a dollar sign before the symbol the stock symbol shows up on stock quotes that's a program that's -- you have no idea was posting."

" Sure but. Other than the -- stream where everything you -- would Twitter was -- filters mean we have recommended list but theoretically you want to follow if huge if I trusted you read. And it -- clear you don't have. -- yeah yeah let's just -- first impressions -- much closer there the and I wanted to get inside your head -- and see who you now. Trust that -- took a quick way for me to discover like minded people that if I'd like Janet what's yes -- Criminal like maybe ten other people that you wanted to do you recommend and some much faster what the weather so being so in the end they are well. One if they've -- as a walled garden will -- no different position right now FaceBook to Warburg and everything's longer -- as a -- someone you know I want to quickly the -- disobey Exxon and quickly. Who the best best people aren't."

" Okay say six I think it's having an observation we're talking about about the show that they just -- to detect it can -- that develops and how. There is a certain level of trust right between you and me and -- and and the conversation that we're having even though we don't have that the typical constraints that you would in normal media and it it doesn't -- kind of a self policing. Comments and and -- conversations that are going on between viewers what's the most surprising thing here is you've been growing this company and they're going to when -- went situation that you're like."

" The 2000. I'm -- today I was told you know secret word. Let me mention two it was admiral days and I've said it -- to -- and a better sentence but it is new again never again and hello. See you know each other words such things. You you need to deal -- Have fun with this whole life and I so want to share wall strip people deal was Jon Stewart meets finance bill with an original maps sent him there Joan that we were doing a web show. But it wasn't original -- is caught public John Easter was like he was the man. That list playoff idea. So you gotta playoffs something that's great I didn't invent anything -- my partner who co founded this we we didn't mention anything sprang we need to win the Blackberry was out when the first one Blackberry first came -- It's amazing tool brokers loved it because of the pain you can pin and a private network behind Merrill Lynch's threw -- hand. And all a Twitter is is no -- many. Granted it's open. And Syria be more careful and you should be more careful but that one and he's just so powerful values it -- with 60000 followers if let's say. FT and is a chisel and you need to check it it is day as I write to her -- good point yeah. Yeah that was -- the week to sap did nothing to created that I flipped up Bill O'Reilly put in the consume TV. And his -- he had made it up okay you're -- you -- plus select -- now when I'm joking okay now that would so win if we say. Jenna knows her stuff on agriculture for Chicago you know you know your stuff. Well and and we direct traffic -- from start -- they're not coming to you for fashion tips are here are tips they're coming here because we told you them. The that you're good at that red."

" So that's how I know that's -- We have quite your -- base in the that we see the power to its interest in this it's interact with the news that all the time and see. What comes out of it now a couple of our viewers want to know Jonathan. Do you sell advertising space who want to know how much money -- you know how you're going to monetize it which is the big question about Twitter and general. And I should point out that you know you're the number of interesting investors including Todd Stottlemyre right -- Major League pitcher who is involved and I saw one of his post earlier our own Eric Bolling -- side is -- investor in stocks which we should point out a full disclosure is welcome at Kennedy but to me."

" Brazil's real -- that somehow the makeup right headed anywhere else -- secure today which I can't figure why do they on the ground around at all yeah. He likes it though I didn't make up -- I don't know what I'm worried about going to pass and it's so how's he gonna get a return for whatever amount of money he's put in the stock to its well it's a greater falter as well as the stock market is and that's I'm making him the kind of light of that but listen it's all about. In the private markets although valuation Eminem and investor run hedge -- for eleven years and it invests in them a lot of startups. And the key is how do you get it and how to get out and more important Hannity and that's what how -- get that. So your question about how to how to we get revenue were already doing we get it where haven't I took first month this month around around a fantastic month. We create a global platform. On word press. 140 is not a way to build a business 140 characters you mean but if you have something smart decision you read headlines -- Drudge report from god keeps going doesn't -- headlines right. You have all of you build a voice from that -- give you a platform to now take that deeper and newsletter financial newsletters have been around. Forever and very profitable business and to work underneath filling up. Newsletter platform for writers so we're going to aggregate the best writers that sounds great -- in the morning yet so it did she she -- Colbert just -- us. And then we're also building out our own platform behind the seems right now for for secure private. And you'll sell at some point so. So the company yet. You know that we'd like to we'd like to have offer them an -- to sell we've got -- well back to we have a plan to be profitable movement in the fall. And we're gonna get there we have great team. And we're very -- is only five of --"

" Stuck there and it keeps right -- in -- Pippen hit him on the -- he reached."

" get on the weekend at a -- NASDAQ went content and denying stuff yes well I have it I love and this whole idea. -- Got your audience can be gigantic they can be global. And there can be real conversation like we're having right now and it's non state. Yet so I'm I've never been on CNBC you could definitely talk to the people of CNBC. And I decided I'd just trying to I'm trying to avoid TV and I think this web idea I've been on. Air show challenger emirates puzzle to political scene -- a little too political violence I don't know -- political."

" what have you mark and come back -- Howard great to meet you in person you -- different you put a picture -- cartoon right. -- woods and added is stocks would say gosh check it out stocks which dotcom boom that's stuck with something when it. Good stuff Fargo doesn't write for us another a minute over another successful show more than a moment never made it -- it's -- guys tomorrow by business dot com live."

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