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Date:Thu, 9 Oct 2008|

Description:Attractive Valuation

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

I can thank you are right now while the market facilities granting a lack of confidence to our next guest says there are some attractive valuations out there our market -- this week is David through. The portfolio manager of the T. Rowe Price capital appreciation -- good morning David thanks for being here I am very happy to see. That that -- start to feel pretty good about all the things that we're discussing all the injections of incurring whether it's. Cash or. You know legislation you name it why start to feel like value is coming back into the marketplace.

It really all comes down to this hugely attractive valuations in the marketplace. If you look at the FB 500 is that if you implying that. But it non financial earnings are going to fall sour cream yes 35 and 40% and we think that's just. Two high next -- to -- decline next year and we look at covers on enterprise by itself basis of price to book basis outside financial. We are seeing some very very attractive opportunities nicknames that where you're taking a 1218 point Vermont. A bias in the if he's coming we think there's a lot of -- it could be up significantly over the next. You're so.

David you know look I couldn't agree with -- more we were so we start talking about this a couple of days ago I mean it it it and if it feels as though. Fear has paralyzed. Even the best of corporations right now saying you're talking about non bank financial institutions is that where we should be looking right now. Into things like industrial. Into things light technology he was seeing levels. That frankly actually remember the last time I -- apple 87 dollars.

Why I'm not I don't I don't -- Apple's -- come on apple necessary I don't know apple that well but what I would say it's. It is quite a lot of value -- it in a variety of sectors and we see ya every industrial basically run ten times earnings. On the market employment earnings and ball. Substantially we don't think that's been that's been materialize. Within technology was in the civilian workers -- You know all -- of implying sort of 43% decline in earnings we don't think that's going to happen we're we're very positive Texas Instruments. Analog devices violence. We see very many cities in value in new materials for the first time in in five years we don't some of the Japanese trading companies that are trading at three to four times earnings which we think -- Just way to -- to devalue across the spectrum Aussie.

A teacher -- let's go back to what everybody says is who is sort of the root of the problem network sprinting right now and that is this credit freeze -- this access to. Fund corporation -- and commercial paper. Do you believe that the announcement yet today that the Fed is going to get very much involved in this and allowed ninety -- paper. If that's going to change this so is what we're talking about right now just. Give me some time for the trillions of dollars that we're talking about on a global basis to pour into the marketplace.

I think so if I can maybe take that question make it a more broad. He what what we are seeing in the fixed income market is sort of a liquidation. Probably have more people selling than buying. Really what we need this season at prices have come down to certain stress levels within that fixing the market that you are going to see. What the equity managers -- money. Can we buy back their own identity crisis if you better supply demand imbalance I think -- next call an apprentice three to six months. And the fixed income markets -- fixing to market improves I think that a lot of positive vacations on the ability coming you know issues CP -- CP. And that issue but investment grade and on investment grade debt and that'll be a precursor to a pretty big equity group that -- eighteen month.

Okay should David what we need to do and that is securing the fixed income markets before we hear the equity markets that we you're suggesting or could we invest in me. Equity markets right now knowing that that process is occurring in the get.

Markets. I think he invested -- both markets right now especially if you have a little longer time horizon. Again you know how attractive equity valuations are given how important sentiment is right now at these are very attractive. I think when we look at some of these evaluation was in the fixed income market within the leveraged loan category with MCM BS. We're that would even with investment grade when ATT -- 400 basis points over treasuries. That's sort of in a bit irrational I think. And I think that market's going to get much better quickly as well I think in the they think about everything out but it Treasury's. It's very very attractive. You know every that the within equities -- very very cracked within the possible exception staples and healthcare. Which are. Benefiting from defensive rotation right now.

So you don't -- that knowing that -- crux of the third quarter earnings start next week is this is a surprise perhaps to the marketplace. That the third quarter earnings are not nearly as abysmal as people are pricing hand or that there -- forward looking projections are a little bit better than we anticipate.

I think that I think that that's that's a great point I mean I think expectations going into third quarter are -- be very very art -- very very very -- right now. I think -- will probably lower guidance for -- price but a little bit different or nine but what will happen is you won't be as bad that is what people pricing -- And it ends in Q three we're -- little relief rally. Because coming over numbers down but won't be as bad as people are are are taking today to be below consensus. But won't be if that is what is being implied -- stock prices which I can -- battles requisite.

Well yeah unbelievable. That that they -- pricing and declines of 35 to 50% on earnings on a quarterly basis for non bank financial Taipei major rail. To what T. Rowe Price thanks so much for being this week's market may have been great having you here. Thank you very much RA that the opening.

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