The following are the Federal Reserve's staff forecasts as contained in the minutes of recent Federal Open Market Committee meetings:

MARCH 19-20 FOMC: Minutes released on April 10:

"In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the March FOMC meeting, real GDP growth was revised down somewhat in the near term, largely reflecting the federal spending sequestration that went into effect on March 1 and the resulting drag from reduced government purchases. The staff's medium-term forecast for real GDP growth was little changed, on balance, as the effects of somewhat more fiscal policy restraint and a higher assumed path for the foreign exchange value of the dollar were essentially offset by a brighter outlook for domestic energy production and a higher projection for household wealth, which reflected upward revisions to the projected paths for both equity prices and home prices. On balance, with fiscal policy expected to be tighter in 2013 than in 2012, the staff expected that increases in real GDP this year would only modestly exceed the growth rate of potential output. Fiscal policy restraint on economic growth was assumed to ease over time, and real GDP was projected to accelerate gradually in 2014 and 2015, supported by increases in consumer and business sentiment, further improvements in credit availability and financial conditions, and accommodative monetary policy. The expansion in economic activity was anticipated to slowly reduce the slack in labor and product markets over the projection period, and progress in reducing the unemployment rate was expected to be gradual.

"The staff's forecast for inflation was little changed from the projection prepared for the January FOMC meeting. With crude oil prices anticipated to trend down slowly from their current levels, long-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, and significant resource slack persisting over the forecast period, the staff continued to project that inflation would be subdued through 2015.

"The staff viewed the uncertainty around its forecast for economic activity as similar to the average level over the past 20 years. However, the risks were viewed as skewed to the downside, reflecting in part the concerns about the situation in Europe and the possibility of a more severe tightening in U.S. fiscal policy than currently anticipated. The staff saw the uncertainty around its projection for inflation as about average, and it viewed the risks to the inflation outlook as roughly balanced."

JAN 29-30 FOMC: Minutes released on February 20:

"In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the January meeting of the FOMC, the near-term projection for real GDP growth was revised up, in large part because the fiscal policy legislation enacted in early January was slightly less restrictive than the staff had assumed. The staff's medium-term forecast for real GDP growth was essentially unchanged. With fiscal policy still anticipated to be tighter this year than last year, the staff expected that increases in real GDP would only moderately exceed the growth rate of potential output. In 2014 and 2015, real GDP was projected to accelerate gradually, supported by an eventual lessening of fiscal policy restraint, increases in consumer and business sentiment, further improvements in credit availability and financial conditions, and accommodative monetary policy. The expansion in economic activity was expected to slowly reduce the slack in labor and product markets over the projection period, and progress in reducing the unemployment rate was anticipated to be gradual.

"The staff's forecast for inflation was little changed from that prepared for the December FOMC meeting. The staff continued to project that inflation would be subdued through 2015. That forecast is based on the expectation that crude oil prices will trend down slowly from their current levels, the boost to retail food prices from last summer's drought will be temporary and relatively small, longer-run inflation expectations will remain stable, and significant resource slack will persist over the forecast period."

DEC 11-12 FOMC: Minutes released on January 3:

"In the economic projection prepared by the staff for the December FOMC meeting, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the near term was revised down slightly relative to the previous forecast. This downward revision primarily reflected weaker-than-expected data for consumer spending and household income that more than offset the somewhat better-than-anticipated news regarding employment and business equipment investment. The staff's medium-term forecast for real GDP growth also was revised down a little, as some of the recent weakness in household spending and income was carried forward in the projection. In addition, financial conditions were anticipated to be a little less supportive than expected in the staff's previous forecast. With federal fiscal policy assumed to be tighter next year than this year, the staff expected that the increase in real GDP would not materially exceed the growth rate of potential output in 2013. In 2014 and 2015, economic activity was projected to accelerate slowly, supported by a lessening in fiscal policy restraint, gains in consumer and business confidence, further improvements in financial conditions and credit availability, and accommodative monetary policy. The expansion in economic activity was anticipated to result in only a gradual decline in slack in labor and product markets over the forecast period, and progress in reducing unemployment was expected to be relatively slow.

"The staff's projection for inflation in both the near term and the medium term was essentially unchanged from the forecast prepared for the previous FOMC meeting. With crude oil prices expected to continue to decrease slowly, the boost to retail food prices from last summer's drought anticipated to be only temporary and fairly small, long-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, and considerable resource slack persisting over the forecast period, the staff projected that inflation would be subdued through 2015."

"The staff viewed the uncertainty around the projection for economic activity as somewhat elevated and the risks as skewed to the downside, largely reflecting the possibility of a more severe tightening in U.S. fiscal policy than expected, along with continued concerns about the economic and financial situation in Europe. Although the staff saw the outlook for inflation as uncertain, the risks were viewed as balanced and not unusually high."

OCT 23-24 FOMC: Minutes released on November 14:

"In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the October FOMC meeting, real GDP growth in the near term was revised up relative to the previous projection. The upward revision to the near-term forecast primarily reflected better-than-expected incoming information for consumer spending, residential construction, and labor market conditions that more than offset the recent data for business fixed investment and industrial production that were weaker than anticipated. The staff's medium-term projection for real GDP growth also was revised up, mostly reflecting the monetary policy actions announced by the FOMC after the September meeting and the resulting improved outlook for financial conditions. Nonetheless, with fiscal policy assumed to be tighter next year than this year, the staff anticipated that real GDP growth would not materially exceed increases in potential output in 2013. In 2014, economic activity was projected to accelerate gradually, supported by a lessening in fiscal policy restraint, gains in consumer and business confidence, further improvements in financial conditions and credit availability, and accommodative monetary policy. Progress in reducing unemployment over the projection period was expected to be relatively slow.

"The staff's near-term forecast for inflation was little changed, on balance, from the projection prepared for the September FOMC meeting, notwithstanding recent increases in consumer energy prices. The staff's projection for inflation over the medium term was also essentially unchanged. Crude oil prices were anticipated to decline slowly from their current levels, the boost to retail food prices from the drought was expected to be only temporary and relatively small, long-run inflation expectations were assumed to remain stable, and significant resource slack was projected to persist over the projection period. As a result, the staff continued to forecast that inflation would be subdued through 2014."